337
FXUS63 KSGF 070548
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1248 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple chances for rainfall this weekend with localized
  flooding possible. The greatest potential for widespread
  precipitation will be Saturday night-Sunday morning (60-75%).

- Marginal Risk for severe weather for Saturday night into
  Sunday as a cold front moves through the area. Severe weather
  is highly dependent on when the front moves through overnight.

- A cooler than average start to next week will be possible with
  highs Monday and Tuesday in the middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Shortwave trough moved through the area this morning bringing a
round of showers in from the KC area and keeping most of the area in
the low to mid 70s. Though, looking at our SGF 12z sounding from
this morning, we were pretty dry at the surface. However, looking at
PWAT values on the SPC mesoanalysis page, the shortwave is supplying
its own moisture as is pushes southeast. This means these showers
moving through southern MO will continue to push south and should be
out of the area between 2-4pm.

Friday appears to be mostly dry with increasing clouds throughout
the day as a pattern shift comes underway for the weekend. Enjoy
tomorrow, because an unsettled, wet weekend is in store for southern
MO. Tomorrow will start out mostly sunny with highs reaching the mid
to upper 80s. Overcast skies return Friday night, keeping lows warm
in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Synoptic Set-up: The long term forecast will continue to feature
intermittent rain chances through weekend. WPC has a Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall through the weekend for most of the SGF CWA.
Though, long term model guidance isn`t in great agreement on how the
synoptic pattern will unfold this weekend. There will be a
stationary front that sets up somewhere over southern MO along/near
I-44. Some solutions have the stalled front hanging out over
southern MO, others show the front near the MO/AR border, or even
further south than that. This is why there`s been such a spread in
QPF amounts the past several days, and our forecast QPF values have
flipped back and forth. Highs will be a bit cooler than normal in
the mid 70s with partly to mostly cloudy skies through the weekend
and start of next week. Temperatures bounce back into the mid 80s by
Wednesday. Could see some additional precip chances toward the
middle of next week.

Saturday: MCS will move through Friday night into Saturday morning
bringing the first round of rain for the weekend. QPF have most of
the rain falling over central MO with amounts around 1 inch or less.
Skies will stay mostly cloudy for the day with rain tapering off in
the morning, a break in the afternoon, then rain again in the
evening hours through the night.

Saturday Night-Sunday: Yet another MCS will move through the area
Saturday night through Sunday morning. Then, following right behind
the MCS, a cold front will push through as well. SPC has a Marginal
Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms over the area when the cold
front pushes through overnight. Since moderate low-level moisture
and moderate deep-layer shear will be in place, storms may be strong
enough to produce large hail, a tornado, or damaging wind gusts.
Though, the severe threat is highly dependent on when the front
moves through. SPC also said that a category update may be needed as
details are more clear. Rain will taper off through the day once the
cold front moves through the area.

Rainfall Amounts: Just looking at ensemble plumes, we can see that
the spread even for just 48 to 72 hours out is almost an inch of
QPF. The uncertainty on where the boundary sets up is why the spread
in expected rainfall is so high. Though, considering how saturated
we are due to previous rainfall events, nuisance flooding can be
expected for anywhere rain does fall. PWAT values max out over
southern MO near 2 inches. Again, referencing climatology for this
time of year, 2 inches for PWATs is well above our daily max of 1.7
to 1.8 inches. Therefore, any back-building near the front will lead
to localized flooding in those areas. Right now, have highest QPF
totals for the weekend over south-central MO mostly along I-44 (1.75
to 3.5 inches), with lower amounts just north and south of I-44
(1.0 to 1.5 inches).

As mentioned before, with the uncertainty in the models, these
amounts are subject to change (and already have from last night`s
forecast to today`s forecast) as we get closer to the weekend. If
attending outdoor events/activities this weekend, keep in mind that
you could see intermittent rain showers, where rain may be heavy at
times. Nuisance flooding and ponding on the roadways is
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions and light winds are expected through this TAF
period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Titus