031
FXUS64 KTSA 040239
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
939 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 929 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Extensive cold pool remains across much of E OK / NW AR in wake of
the afternoon MCS, however notable observational data supports
potential for overnight storms as suggested by short term
guidance. Area VWP data show the cold pool is rather shallow
across N TX into central OK with 850 VWP winds S-SW and increasing
to 25-35kts across central and north TX. Additionally, 00z
KOUN/KFWD soundings sampled deep moisture (daily extreme 850mb Td
noted at both sites) which is currently capped by a warm layer
near 700mb. Expectations are that the consistent and increasingly
upglide atop the increasingly shallow cold pool will coincide with
improving divergence aloft to support scattered to numerous storms
across E OK and possibly NW AR overnight. Feed of strong elevated
instability and effective shear supportive of supercell structure
will foster severe storm potential, while initial storm motions
may be rather slow before a more congealed cluster and cold pool
increases forward momentum. This also raises potential for locally
heavy rains though exact location is uncertain. Given early day
rains and ongoing saturated soils, quick run off could occur with
any area of intense hourly rates and a flood watch is warranted
through mid morning Tuesday. Updated forecast will adjust
overnight precip chances and include flood watch wording.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across parts of
Southeast OK and into Northwestern AR at daybreak Tuesday morning,
which should continue to move eastward/southeastward as the
morning progresses. The troughiness mid/upper-level pattern will
persist through the daytime on Tuesday, though the majority of
Tuesday is expected to be mostly dry for most locations. However,
yet another mid-level shortwave trough will arrive over the region
Tuesday evening/night into Wednesday morning as a surface frontal
boundary also approaches from the northwest. Another MCS is
forecast to develop near/ahead of the approaching front as a
result. There is still a lot of uncertainty with how this scenario
will evolve and unfold, timing and locations included. Main
hazards with this scenario would be damaging wind gusts and large
hail.

Much more benign and stable conditions arrive by Wednesday
afternoon as northwest flow pattern aloft commences and dominates
through the middle part of the week. Wednesday mornings cold
front may meander/stall across the forecast area during the
daytime Wednesday, perhaps even lifting northward Wednesday
evening/night. By Thursday morning, a stronger surge of surface
high pressure from the Northern Plains is expected to push the
cold front through the entire forecast area, exiting sometime
Thursday night/Friday morning. A few ensemble members and medium-
range deterministic models have isolated showers/thunderstorms
developing along the cold front as it advances southward Thursday
afternoon/evening, but with low confidence in this occurring,
decided to leave the mention of precipitation out of the forecast
for now.

Mid/upper-level ridging will build over West TX/East NM by
Friday, with northwest flow continuing over our region. A few mid-
level perturbations will have to be monitored in later forecasts
for additional thunderstorm complexes rolling through the
northwest flow aloft this upcoming weekend. Otherwise, near
seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures are expected this
weekend. Beyond this weekend, forecast uncertainty drastically
increases and forecast confidence is low.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Skies will continue to clear from west to east the next couple of
hours, though high clouds will likely remain persistent. Another
round of storms may develop across east-central OK this evening
(30-40% chance). There is uncertainty in the placement and timing
of storms, but the KLMC terminal and surrounding areas are the
most likely corridor for storms. The main impacts would be gusty
winds, heavy rain, and lightning. As these storms develop, CIGS
will redevelop and lower across the area, generally in the 2.5-5
kft range, but they will be locally lower under storms with some
vis reductions also possible.

Scattered showers and storms may also occur during the day
Tuesday, but coverage and intensity will be influenced by whatever
happens tonight, so confidence is too low to include any
additional specific mentions in the TAFs. Otherwise, CIGs will
likely remain through much of the day in the 4-6 kft range. Winds
will mostly be light through the period, and out of the south. A
few areas may see marginal LLWS tonight, but the coverage and
intensity was too low to justify including in the TAFs at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  85  69  89 /  40  20  70   0
FSM   68  86  72  91 /  40  30  70  20
MLC   69  87  70  89 /  60  40  60  10
BVO   66  84  64  89 /  30  20  70   0
FYV   66  83  66  86 /  30  30  80  20
BYV   66  84  67  86 /  30  40  80  20
MKO   68  84  69  87 /  50  20  70  10
MIO   66  84  66  86 /  30  20  80  10
F10   68  85  68  87 /  50  20  70  10
HHW   67  85  71  86 /  50  50  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for OKZ049-065-066-070>076.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...06