719
FXUS64 KTSA 040911
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
411 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

An MCS is racing southeast across southeast Oklahoma early this
morning, and the brunt of this activity should be out of the
forecast area by the start of the forecast period at 12Z. The HRRR
suggests that spotty weak convection may continue to fester
through at least the morning hours to the north of the departing
MCS, so will keep pops going in all areas today. The flood watch
continues until 15Z, but current trends suggest we may be able to
cancel it early. Afternoon high temperatures today will generally
reach the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Another MCS is expected to develop this evening in advance of an
approaching weak frontal boundary. Given the amount of available
instability and moisture, severe storms and locally heavy
rainfall will both be likely with this MCS. Current model
consensus suggests that the greatest severe/heavy rain threat may
be mainly southeast of Interstate 44, but confidence is low on
this scenario. Another short term flood watch may be needed in
some places for this complex, but will hold off for now as
confidence is low in just where the heavy rainfall will occur.

A relatively dry period is then expected Wednesday through Friday
before an uptick in overnight/early morning MCS potential returns
Friday night through the weekend. Have upper NBM pops some and
lowered high temperatures over the weekend based on the latest
trends. Drier weather looks to return early next week with
temperatures near or a bit below the seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Storm potential and low clouds will pose forecast challenges for
this TAF period. First, elevated storms are developing across
central and southeast OK and these may directly impact KMLC, and
may get close enough to warrant VCTS mention at KTUL/KRVS/KFSM.
Next, model time-height RH plots and the latest LAMP guidance
suggest that MVFR cigs will overspread much of eastern OK and
western AR by Tuesday morning, and may hang on for a good part of
the day. IFR cigs are possible at times. Expect that by 00Z sites
should be back to VFR. Indications are that another storm complex
will affect eastern OK tomorrow evening, so PROB30 groups were
inserted to cover potential for those TAFs.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  68  88  67 /  30  90   0   0
FSM   84  70  89  67 /  30  90  20   0
MLC   84  69  88  66 /  40  80  10   0
BVO   82  65  88  63 /  30  70   0   0
FYV   81  66  85  61 /  30  80  20   0
BYV   81  66  84  63 /  30  80  20   0
MKO   83  69  88  66 /  30  90  10   0
MIO   81  66  86  63 /  30  80   0   0
F10   84  67  88  66 /  30  90  10   0
HHW   85  69  87  68 /  30  80  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ049-065-066-
     070>076.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30