035
FXUS64 KTSA 080904
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
404 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Early this morning a mid level shortwave was moving eastward
across Southeast Kansas. The associated 700-mb trof axis
interacting with a 35-45KT low level jet over an area of warm
advection was allowing for convection to develop. The bulk of the
storms and also the stronger storms were just north/northeast of
the CWA...though isolated to widely scattered showers/storms were
developing/occurring along the low level jet axis within an area
of low level moisture convergence over Northeast Oklahoma. Over
the next few hours...these isolated/scattered showers and storms
should continue to move eastward with the movement of the
shortwave across Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas.
Severe potentials into mid morning should remain quite limited
with marginal instability and shear. This activity is forecast to
exit by mid to late morning with the departing shortwave.

This afternoon...the concern will be the warmer and more humid
conditions across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as the
CWA will be just south of a surface boundary progged to set up
over Southern Kansas. Low level southerly flow transporting
moisture into the region with upper 60/lower 70 dewpoints are
expected across the CWA this afternoon. This moisture combined
with 850-mb temps in the 20-25C range will create afternoon temps
in the low/mid 90s and heat index values of upper 90s to around
104 deg for the CWA. Take precautions while outside today.

Also this afternoon...with the boundary near the Oklahoma Kansas
border...an isolated diurnal thunderstorm could develop in far
Northeast Oklahoma. Increasing instability mid/late afternoon
would suggest that a limited severe potential will exist with any
storm development. Large hail and gusty/strong winds will be the
primary threat. Locally heavy rainfall will also be a concern with
the ample amounts of moisture and precipitable water values
approaching 2 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A second mid level shortwave is progged to move across Southern
Kansas again tonight which will help give a push to the
surface/frontal boundary into the CWA late tonight/Sunday morning.
Shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast into Northeast
Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas overnight into Sunday morning
as a MCS develops with the shortwave and frontogenetic forcing
extends southward into the region. Limited severe potentials are
forecast tonight into Sunday with locally damaging wind and large
hail the main threats. Again...with the amount of moisture in
place...locally heavy rainfall could also become a concern into
Sunday.

During the day Sunday...the frontal boundary is forecast to sag
southward through the CWA with the shortwave progged to exit the
region Sunday afternoon and a secondary upper level trof axis
dropping southeast through the Plains Sunday evening/night. In
response...shower and thunderstorm chances spread southward with
the movement of the front Sunday and remain possible Sunday night
into Monday morning before the upper level trof exits. A limited
severe potential looks to be main focused along/near the boundary
Sunday.

Cooler conditions filter into the region behind the frontal
boundary with highs in the 80s in Northeast Oklahoma Sunday and
upper 70s/lower 80s for the CWA Monday/Tuesday. Shower and
thunderstorm chances remain over the western half of the CWA
Monday and expand back over the CWA into Tuesday with another
shortwave moving southeast through the Southern Plains. Latest
model solutions differ on the time of departure for this
shortwave with the ECMWF holding onto a mid level low pressure
into Wednesday. For now will keep a slight chance PoP for
Wednesday morning and then taper off precip chances. Once this
wave exits...warmer and more humid conditions are forecast to
spread back into the CWA at the end of the upcoming week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Scattered high based showers and storms are expected across NE OK
through far NW AR tonight. Any terminal impacts are likely to be
brief however gusty winds are possible even with the weaker precip
as strong low level jet aligns across the region. By morning the
focus for any ongoing precip will across NW AR and then ending by
mid morning. VFR conditions and gusty winds through the day.
Additional evening storms expected late Saturday but initial
development is likely to be north of NE OK and no mention at local
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  74  86  64 /  10  20  30  20
FSM   96  74  90  67 /  10  10  30  30
MLC   94  73  91  67 /  10  10  20  30
BVO   95  70  82  59 /  20  40  30  20
FYV   91  71  85  60 /  20  20  40  20
BYV   90  70  80  60 /  30  40  50  20
MKO   95  74  88  65 /  10  10  40  30
MIO   91  70  80  60 /  20  50  50  20
F10   94  73  88  66 /  10  10  30  30
HHW   93  72  93  70 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07