965
FXUS64 KTSA 051916
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
216 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A very seasonably pleasant day has transpired today as a weak
cold front has exited the forecast area and clouds continue to
clear from north-to-south. Skies will remain clear/mostly clear
tonight as upper-level ridging builds over the Desert Southwest
and northwest flow/subsidence dominates over the region. Near
seasonal low temperatures are anticipated tonight, ranging from
the upper 50s/near 60F in far Northwest AR to low-mid 60s
elsewhere.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Another weak cold front will move southward through the forecast
area on Thursday, pushing south of the Red River late Thursday
night. A few deterministic/ensembles/CAMs are hinting at moisture
pooling along the frontal boundary as peak heating occurs Thursday
afternoon. This may cause a few spotty showers/thunderstorms to
form, mainly along/south of I-40. Due to low confidence of
sufficient availability of moisture and lift, decided to cap PoPs
at 10%. Latest models also indicate a weak mid-level shortwave
trough embedded in the northwest flow aloft moving across OK late
Thursday night/early Friday morning. A very dry and stable
boundary layer will be in place behind the cold front by that
time, but limited elevated CAPE will remain present. If the
shortwave verifies and is able to tap into mid-level moisture,
elevated thunderstorms may develop in portions of Eastern OK
early-mid Friday morning. But again, with limited moisture to work
with, confidence of this occurring is low at this time, so kept
the mention of precipitation out of the forecast for this
particular time frame for now.

Southerly winds return Friday, increasing low-level moisture and
instability across the region. Forecast models/ensembles have been
persistent in developing another shortwave trough by Friday
evening that will push across the northern tier of the forecast
area late Friday night/early Saturday morning. Best lift,
moisture, and instability combo (and thus precipitation chances)
will occur north of the I-40 corridor. There will be enough
instability for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms as the
shortwave moves across and exits the region by early Saturday
morning. If severe storms do form, large hail and damaging wind
gusts will be the main hazards. Better and more widespread chances
of showers and thunderstorms will occur starting late Saturday
evening and continuing through much of the daytime on Sunday as
another shortwave trough and another, stronger cold front
approaches from the north. There is still some uncertainty with
how this event will unfold, with a few discrepancies and
inconsistencies still in forecast models. However, trends
continue to indicate widespread showers and thunderstorms will
spread from north-to-south from Saturday night into much of the
daytime on Sunday. Although probabilities are still relatively low
at this time, a few thunderstorms may become strong to severe,
especially Saturday evening. Will continue to monitor severe
trends. There is better confidence in heavy to very heavy
rainfall, leading to flooding and/or flash flooding both on Friday
night and especially on Saturday night as PWATs increase to near
or above 2 inches along the approaching cold front. Heaviest
precipitation is expected to fall across Northeast OK and
Northwest AR.

The cold front and precipitation should be ending by Monday
morning, with much cooler (below average) and more pleasant
conditions anticipated Monday and Tuesday. Near seasonal
temperatures will return by Wednesday.

Lastly, wanted to mention that unseasonably warm temperatures are
expected Thursday-Saturday, with widespread daytime temperatures
maxing out in the upper 80s and lower 90s in most locations.
Saturday is forecast to be the warmest day in the period, with a
few locations perhaps reaching the mid-90s along and west of
Highway 75 in OK and in AR River Valley.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

MVFR/VFR cigs across the AR sites will scatter out early
in the TAF period. Otherwise, VFR TAF elements will prevail
through the period at all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  90  60  89 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   63  92  63  90 /   0  10   0  10
MLC   61  91  64  89 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   61  87  58  88 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   60  87  59  88 /   0  10   0  10
BYV   59  86  58  87 /   0  10   0  10
MKO   62  88  61  87 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   61  86  58  86 /   0   0   0  10
F10   62  89  65  87 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   62  91  67  87 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...23