976
FXUS64 KTSA 281126
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
626 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms continue early this
morning across portions of southwest/south-central Oklahoma in zone
of stronger warm advection. Some of this activity will likely
move into portions of eastern Oklahoma later this morning. Although
instability/lapse rates will decrease as storms lift northeast, a
few could still produce large hail, especially across far southeast
Oklahoma where instability will be maximized.

Lingering showers/isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across
portions of the area this afternoon, but overall convective trends
should be decreasing as storms grow upscale/shift southeast into
NE TX.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Storms chances will persist for the next several days as a series of
upper level disturbances traverse in stronger northwesterly flow
aloft. Rich Gulf moisture will continue lifting north into the
area with PWATS remaining in the 1.5-1.75 inch range Wednesday
through Friday. Although specific timing of each system is obviously
difficult at this point, it appears models are in general agreement
with shifting a stronger upper wave out of the central Rockies
Thursday night into Friday. More widespread precipitation is
likely during this time with locally heavy rainfall possible.

High temperatures should remain near or slightly below normal for
the remainder of the work week given the increased cloud cover.
Stayed with NBM guidance for now. Precip chances will continue
through the weekend into the early part of next week given no
major upper level pattern change. At least low severe chances will
also be possible each day through the extended periods, although
widespread severe weather is not expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of
any lowered VSBY conditions in any thunderstorms. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected across E OK and NW AR this
morning and into the afternoon and could impact terminals through
this period. Otherwise, light winds and broken mid level cloud
cover will dominate the region.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  63  81  63 /  30  30  40  20
FSM   87  66  81  65 /  30  30  50  20
MLC   84  64  81  65 /  50  40  60  20
BVO   84  58  80  60 /  30  20  30  10
FYV   85  60  79  60 /  20  20  40  10
BYV   82  60  79  59 /  20  20  30  10
MKO   82  63  78  63 /  30  30  50  20
MIO   80  58  79  60 /  30  20  20  10
F10   81  63  78  63 /  40  40  50  20
HHW   79  65  77  65 /  60  40  60  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...04