Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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219 FXUS64 KTSA 250532 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1232 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 902 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Several updates already sent have reflected removing counties from the SVR watch and adjusting PoPs accordingly as the cold front passed. Will continue to issue updates in that same vein this evening, though at this time overnight temperatures and rest of first period elements outside of PoPs/thunder look good and will be left as is. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Warm sector quickly recovers during the day Saturday with data remaining consistent in a broad fetch of a strongly unstable and deeply sheared airmass overspreading much of the Southern Plains by late afternoon. The approaching shortwave trough and associated wind fields are all within the classic configuration supporting a significant severe weather event from late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. The higher storm coverage will focus north of the local region along the sfc low track and warm frontal zone. Further south along the dryline through OK storm coverage remains more uncertain, however confidence remains high in at least isolated to scattered supercells initiating along the dryline through central OK and spreading into E OK during the evening hours. The background environment supports significant severe weather potential and weather conditions should be followed closely from trusted weather sources Saturday evening into the overnight hours. The cold front associated with the passing wave lags to the west and does not completely clear western AR until Sunday afternoon. The bulk of guidance keeps the frontal passage dry with only low chances of storms developing along the boundary during the day Sunday. This period will continue to monitored for higher storm potential but at this time it appears Sunday is a trend downward in the severe potential. A brief dry period Monday into Tuesday as sfc high pressure prevails. The flow aloft becomes northwesterly through the Plains by mid week and will eventually support repeated rounds of thunderstorm complexes moving through the region Wednesday into Friday. By late week the pattern likely returns to more southwesterly flow aloft and unsettled and stormy conditions persist. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Cold front currently moving into west-central Arkansas, extending southwest into east-central Oklahoma early this morning. Scattered to broken MVFR ceilings will be possible along and north of front overnight with some fog potential at NW AR TAF sites. Otherwise, south winds will begin to increase during the day Saturday. A few strong to severe storms may impact E OK TAF sites after 00Z, where PROB30 groups were introduced. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 88 72 90 61 / 0 40 0 10 FSM 90 73 90 66 / 0 20 20 20 MLC 88 72 91 62 / 0 20 10 10 BVO 87 69 88 57 / 0 40 0 10 FYV 86 69 87 60 / 0 30 20 20 BYV 86 70 87 61 / 0 30 20 20 MKO 86 72 89 63 / 0 30 10 10 MIO 85 69 86 58 / 0 50 20 10 F10 87 72 90 61 / 0 40 0 10 HHW 87 72 89 65 / 0 20 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...12