020
FXUS64 KTSA 280242
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
942 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 940 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Elevated convection is expected to develop across Oklahoma later
tonight. Much of this activity will remain to our west, but the
southern and western parts of our forecast area may be affected
before daybreak. Have raised both pops and sky cover a bit later
tonight as a result. Also lowered overnight lows a bit in some
places, most notably near KFYV.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Primary sfc boundary orientation becomes NW to SE tomorrow and
aligned with the flow aloft. Expectation is the primary focus for
more widespread storms remains along the western periphery of the
forecast area and points westward, however there remains enough
guidance spread within a notoriously poorly modeled flow regime to
warrant low precip chances area wide. Sufficient instability and
shear profiles will exist to support an isolated severe risk
through tomorrow night.

Shower and storm chances continue on Wednesday with potential for
a trend upward in overall chances as subtle vort maxes emerge from
the widespread convection which will have occurred over the
western High Plains. This level of detail will be more apparent
with time but do not be surprised if precip chances trend upward
Wednesday / Wed. night.

Flow aloft transitions to more westerly Thursday into Friday and a
notable wave is expected to pass during this time frame. Another
period of high shower and storm chances is forecast with locally
heavy rainfall amounts remaining a possibility. Some degree of
severe weather risk will likely also be present but widespread
organized storms do not appear likely at this time.

Daily precip chances continue through next weekend as
southwesterly unsettled flow aloft interacts with plentiful
moisture and instability. A stormy and wet start to the month of
June is likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Clear skies this evening will gradually become scattered to broken
mid clouds by mid-morning on Tuesday. Expect some spotty showers
also, except at KMLC where showers are expected to prevail with a
chance of thunderstorms. Used PROB30 there to cover potential. Sfc
winds will be light and variable tonight into Tuesday.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  83  62  83 /  20  30  30  30
FSM   64  87  65  83 /  10  30  30  40
MLC   64  86  64  82 /  20  40  40  50
BVO   58  80  58  82 /  20  30  20  30
FYV   56  84  59  82 /  10  20  20  30
BYV   60  83  59  80 /   0  20  10  20
MKO   63  84  62  80 /  20  30  30  40
MIO   60  81  58  81 /  10  20  10  20
F10   63  83  62  80 /  20  40  40  40
HHW   66  84  64  78 /  30  40  60  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30