424
FXUS64 KTSA 280525
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1225 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 940 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Elevated convection is expected to develop across Oklahoma later
tonight. Much of this activity will remain to our west, but the
southern and western parts of our forecast area may be affected
before daybreak. Have raised both pops and sky cover a bit later
tonight as a result. Also lowered overnight lows a bit in some
places, most notably near KFYV.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Primary sfc boundary orientation becomes NW to SE tomorrow and
aligned with the flow aloft. Expectation is the primary focus for
more widespread storms remains along the western periphery of the
forecast area and points westward, however there remains enough
guidance spread within a notoriously poorly modeled flow regime to
warrant low precip chances area wide. Sufficient instability and
shear profiles will exist to support an isolated severe risk
through tomorrow night.

Shower and storm chances continue on Wednesday with potential for
a trend upward in overall chances as subtle vort maxes emerge from
the widespread convection which will have occurred over the
western High Plains. This level of detail will be more apparent
with time but do not be surprised if precip chances trend upward
Wednesday / Wed. night.

Flow aloft transitions to more westerly Thursday into Friday and a
notable wave is expected to pass during this time frame. Another
period of high shower and storm chances is forecast with locally
heavy rainfall amounts remaining a possibility. Some degree of
severe weather risk will likely also be present but widespread
organized storms do not appear likely at this time.

Daily precip chances continue through next weekend as
southwesterly unsettled flow aloft interacts with plentiful
moisture and instability. A stormy and wet start to the month of
June is likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through much of the period, with
the exception of within any heavier showers or thunderstorms that
could move across the area today. Scattered showers with a few
embedded thunderstorms will become possible across eastern
Oklahoma sites by early to mid morning and spread east into
Arkansas by late morning through mid afternoon. Winds remain light
and variable through the period.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  62  83  64 /  30  30  30  20
FSM   87  65  83  64 /  30  30  40  20
MLC   86  64  82  64 /  40  40  50  30
BVO   80  58  82  60 /  30  20  30  20
FYV   84  59  82  60 /  20  20  30  20
BYV   83  59  80  59 /  20  10  20  10
MKO   84  62  80  62 /  30  30  40  20
MIO   81  58  81  60 /  20  10  20  10
F10   83  62  80  62 /  40  40  40  30
HHW   84  64  78  64 /  40  60  50  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04