598
FXUS64 KOHX 071125
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
625 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Surface obs this morning show cold front continues to progress
through Middle Tennessee and is currently along a line roughly
from Lobelville to Cookeville. Temperatures drop into the 60s and
dewpoints fall into the 50s behind the boundary, which will lead
to a very nice, comfortable day for early June with highs in the
mid 70s to mid 80s and low RH. Tonight looks equally as nice with
continued low dewpoints allowing min temps to drop into the mid
50s to low 60s.

00Z guidance continues to depict a MCS developing across Missouri
on Friday night which will make a run for us on Saturday morning.
However, the airmass across Middle Tennessee will be very dry and
stable, which will cause the MCS to fall apart as it approaches
and moves into the midstate. Nevertheless, CAMs such as the HRRR
indicate a few showers and sprinkles will likely survive into at
least northern parts of the cwa, so have included a slight chance
pop for most areas during the day. By Saturday evening, a
strengthening 30kt southwesterly 850mb jet will advect 60s
dewpoints back into the midstate as a robust shortwave approaches
from the northwest. This will allow showers and storms to reach
our northwest counties near/after midnight on Saturday night,
with activity spreading southeast and becoming more widespread
into Sunday morning before diminishing Sunday afternoon. Will
continue high chance to likely pops for most of the area during
this timeframe, while also lowering the seemingly too warm NBM
high temps a tad for Sunday. Forecast soundings show more
instability than previous runs on Sunday with MLCAPE up to 1000
J/Kg, so a few strong storms could occur but nothing widespread
is anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A cold front is anticipated to sink southward through the region
late Sunday into Sunday night, which will bring lower precip
chances as well as a cooler and drier airmass for the first part
of next week. 00Z GFS has a strong secondary shortwave shifting
through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday into early
Tuesday which gives us another round of showers and storms, while
the ECMWF is much further northeast with this feature and thus
completely dry for us. Due to the uncertainty will keep pops on
the low side for Monday and Tuesday, but wouldn`t be surprised if
these pops are too high. Rest of next week appears dry with a
gradual warming trend as upper ridging builds along the Gulf Coast
due to a trough digging southward along the West Coast. Highs look
to rise back to near the 90 degree mark by Thursday and into the
90s by Friday. With dewpoints also increasing back into the 60s,
heat indicies will be creeping up towards the 100 degree mark by
the week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Clear skies and light winds, mostly from the northwest, will
perist through the TAF period. Some fog development at SRB will
dissipate shortly, which may redevelop overnight with a light wind
profile and clear skies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  62  87  70 /   0   0  20  40
Clarksville    83  60  84  69 /   0   0  20  50
Crossville     76  55  79  62 /   0   0  20  30
Columbia       84  59  87  67 /   0   0  20  30
Cookeville     78  57  81  65 /   0   0  20  40
Jamestown      77  55  79  63 /   0   0  20  40
Lawrenceburg   83  59  85  67 /   0   0  10  20
Murfreesboro   84  58  87  67 /   0   0  20  30
Waverly        84  60  85  67 /   0   0  20  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....05