823
AXNT20 KNHC 232348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jun 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22W from
03N to 16N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection with
this wave is limited to the moderate type within 120 nm west of
the wave from 08N to 11N as the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is
surrounding its environment.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W from 03N
to 15N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Only isolated showers
and thunderstorms are seen within 120 nm east and 60 nm west of
the wave from 08N to 15N.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W
south of 20N to inland eastern Suriname. It is moving westward
at 15-20 kt. This wave aligns pretty well with the 700 mb
northeast to southeast wind shift depicted by the GFS model.
Deep atmospheric moisture surrounds this wave south of 12N as
noted in the Total Precipitable Water (TPW) satellite animation
imagery. Conventional infra-red satellite imagery shows
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection primarily west
of the wave to near 58W from 07N to 11N. Similar activity is
within 60 nm east of the wave from 10N to 11N.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 67W south
of 16N to inland central Venezuela, moving westward at 10-15 kt.
This wave is just to east of a rather narrow upper-level trough.
This synoptic set-up is helping to induce numerous showers and
thunderstorms east of the wave to 64W from 12N to 15N. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are within 120 nm west of the
wave from 13N to 14N. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are over Venezuela west of the wave to 72W from
07N to 11N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 83W south
of 18N to across northern Panama and into the eastern Pacific
near 04N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm either side of the wave
axis from 11N to 14N. Ahead of the wave, increasing scattered
moderate to strong convection is over Nicaragua from 12N to 15N
between 84W and 85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 16N17W and continues southwestward to 09N22W and
west-southwestward to 08N32W. The ITCZ extends from 08N32W to
09N41W. It resumes at 08N44W to 07N54W. Aside from convection
described above in the Tropical Waves section, an area of
scattered moderate to strong convection is south of the trough
from 05N to 09N between the coast of Africa and 20W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of
the ITCZ between 48W and 51W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ
between 44W and 48W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120
nm south of the ITCZ between 45W and 48W, and within 60 nm north
of the trough between 24W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Low pressure of 1007 mb (Invest AL93) is approaching the coast
of Mexico just offshore La Pesca. Both latest ASCAT satellite
data passes and recent buoy observations show moderate to fresh
east to southeast winds from 22N to 26N west of about 94W. Seas
with these winds are 3 to 5 ft. Similar seas are from 22N to 26N
between 91W and 94W. Elsewhere across the basin, a 1017 mb high
is analyzed near 28N87W. The pressure gradient between it and the
low pressure is allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds
southeast to south winds to exist elsewhere, with the exceptions
of winds from the east to southeast over the NW Gulf, and for
light to gentle west to northwest winds south of 22N and west of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas outside those described earlier are
2 to 4 ft and slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft south of 22N west
of 94W.

Numerous moderate to strong convection is over the majority of
the Yucatan Peninsula, northern Belize, over the Mexican state
of Campeche and over northern Guatemala. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are seen from 22N to 26N west of 87W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned 1007 MB low (AL93) will
move west-northwestward and inland early this evening. It will
dissipate by Mon morning, with marine conditions quickly
improving there. Moderate winds and slight seas prevailing east
of 90W will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds tonight and to
light to gentle speeds through Wed. Weak high pressure will
remain over the east-central Gulf Tue through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The presence of very deep atmospheric moisture, with a set
diffluent pattern aloft is combining helping to sustain numerous
showers and thunderstorms over the majority of the basin north
of about 17N and west of 70W, including Cuba, Hispaniola and
Jamaica. In addition, a narrow northeast to southwest oriented
upper-level trough that is over the eastern part of the sea is
helping to support scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms from 14N to 17N and east of 64W to across the
northern Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands. The
pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin
and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean Sea and northern
South America is allowing for generally moderate to fresh trade
winds to exist over the eastern and central sections of the sea.
Seas over these waters are in the 4 to 6 ft range, with slightly
higher seas of 5 to 7 ft near Colombia. Lower seas of 3 to 5 ft
in northeast swell are south of 11N and west of Colombia,
including the approaches to the Panama Canal. Moderate or
weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere over the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will continue
across the eastern and central Caribbean sections through Mon
night, pulsing to strong speeds at night near the coast over the
south-central basin. Moderate trade winds and moderate seas are
expected to prevail across the western basin through the week,
except for winds pulsing to strong speeds at night in the Gulf of
Honduras through Mon. Fresh to strong trade winds will accompany
a tropical wave moving across the eastern basin Tue through
early Wed and across the central basin Wed through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A surface trough is analyzed from near 29N76W to 24N79W. Another
surface trough is analyzed from near 26N65W to just north of the
eastern part of Hispaniola. A surface trough is inland northern
and central Florida. A small upper-level low is seen on water
vapor imagery near 29N74W. A narrow upper-level trough extends
from near 25N70W southward to the central Caribbean Sea. Very
deep atmospheric moisture in place along with upper-level
divergence is helping to sustain and activate new convection
south of 27N west of 74W and south of 25N between the second
mentioned trough and 74W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
near the northern part of the second trough and over some
sections of the Florida peninsula. Otherwise, high pressure
centered near the Azores. Its associated broad ridge covers the
Atlantic basin, and extends to offshore northeast Florida. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in
western Africa is producing fresh, to at times, locally strong
northeast wi nds east of about 35W. Seas over these waters are
in the 7 to 9 ft range. Mostly moderate east to southeast winds
along with slight to moderate seas are over the remainder of the
Atlantic waters, except for gentle to moderate southeast to south
winds and slight seas west of 77W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh southerly winds and moderate
seas will prevail across the waters north of 29N and west of 75W
through Mon as low pressure across the southeastern U.S. moves
northward. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will generally
prevail elsewhere across the region through Wed, becoming
southeast to south winds west of 65W. High pressure north of the
region will build southwestward to the NW Bahamas tonight
through Tue, then shift northeastward and weaken through Thu.
Winds and seas will increase across the waters E of the Lesser
Antilles early Mon through midday Tue associated with the passage
of a tropical wave.

$$
Aguirre