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FXUS64 KBRO 151727 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The mid-level ridge continues to stay in place over Deep South Texas
and the Rio Grande Valley, as such above normal temperatures with
very low chances in rain are expected to last through the short term
forecast period. With the atmosphere aloft being dry still, the
environment will continue to be unfavorable for the development for
showers and thunderstorms to develop. However, it is still possible
that the seabreeze could kick up a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon today and tomorrow.

As for the temperatures, the highs for today and tomorrow are
expected to be in the range of upper 90s for most of Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, while parts of Starr, Zapata, and
Jim Hogg could reach into the triple digits. Meanwhile the heat
indices are expected to be in the range of 105 to 110 degrees for
today and tomorrow. The low temperatures for tonight are expected to
be mostly in the 70s with a few places in the Lower Rio Grande
Valley reaching into the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

This portion of the total forecast is highly dependent on the
future development and movement of a tropical system that may
develop in the Bay of Campeche late Tuesday. At a minimum, deep
tropical moisture, featuring precipitable water values between 2
and roughly 2.75 inches, will flux into the BRO CWFA from the Bay
of Campeche and the western Gulf of Mexico. This will result in a
steadily-increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms, with
initially isolated to scattered convection over the eastern
portion of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley gradually
transitioning to scattered to numerous activity across the whole
of the area by the end of the long term period. With the exception
of the northern halves of Brooks County, Jim Hogg County, and
Zapata County, where no drought exists, the latest drought map
indicates Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought conditions over the
remainder of the inland portion of the BRO CWFA. Aforementioned
substantial rains, if they materialize, will have the possibility
of ending any and all drought within the region by the time of
their conclusion.

Temperature-wise, above normal daytime highs, not surprisingly,
will be cooled to slightly below normal levels courtesy of
increased cloud cover and the significant chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Heat indices may result in a SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT Monday through Friday, with a HEAT ADVISORY not expected
to be needed for that time frame.

Additionally, with elevated seas anticipated along the Lower Texas
Coast (please see the MARINE section below), an elevated risk of
rip currents (MODERATE or HIGH), COASTAL FLOOD products (ADVISORY
or WARNING), and HIGH SURF products (ADVISORY or WARNING) are
likely to be needed at the local beaches, possibly commencing on
Monday night or Tuesday.

Finally, some model guidance suggests that a more organized
tropical system will be in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula
late June 21st or early June 22nd, traversing across the Gulf of
Mexico for a couple of days afterwards. Given the amount of time
yet to pass, nothing definite is laid in stone, so will simply
have to monitor this concern as the second week of June becomes
the third.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Through 18z Sunday....VFR conditions were taking place at the
terminals under a FEW-BKN deck of cumulus to stratocumulus clouds as
indicated by the GOES-16 visible channel. Cloud bases range
between 3,000-6,000 feet AGL and visibilities remain unrestricted.
With high pressure influences over the Gulf of Mexico largely in
control over the region, VFR conditons are expected to prevail
through the 18z TAF cycle.

There is a chance, albeit slight, for a shower or thunderstorm
developing during the day on Sunday for areas along and east of I-
69E. However, given the low probability and isolated nature of any
shower or storm, have not included headlines in the TAFs.

Winds will remain out of the east-southeast between 5-10 kts today
and on Sunday. There could be occasional gusts during the afternoon
hours each day with gusts reaching as high as 15 kts or so. Winds
will trend towards calm tonight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Favorable conditions are expected to persist through Sunday, as a
weak pressure gradient remains over the Lower Texas Coast. Light
to moderate winds and low to moderate seas are expected with some
isolated showers and thunderstorms possible.

(Sunday Night through Friday)
This portion of the marine forecast remains highly dependent on
the future development and movement of a tropical system that may
develop in the Bay of Campeche late Tuesday. If model guidance is
to believed, Small Craft Advisory conditions, at a minimum, are
possible along the Lower Texas Coast beginning Monday night,
especially for the Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to 60 nautical
miles offshore. Mariners are advised to monitor the Coastal Waters
Forecast through the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
BROWNSVILLE             80  96  80  96 /  10  30  30  60
HARLINGEN               75  98  76  98 /   0  20  20  50
MCALLEN                 79 100  79 100 /   0  10  10  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         77 100  78 101 /   0  10   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  88  82  88 /  10  40  40  60
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     80  93  79  93 /  10  30  30  60
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma