-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
973
FXUS61 KCAR 181357
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
957 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain south of the region tonight through
Wednesday. A cold front will cross the area Thursday followed by
high pressure Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
9:50 AM Update:
Dew points are continuing to increase from west to east this
morning. Cumulus has already formed over the North Woods. Made
some adjustments to PoPs based on the latest trends in where
cumulus has formed and the CAMs.

Previous Discussion:
High pressure south of the area and a very strong upper level
ridge will be channeling warmer and more humid air northeastward
into our area today. Some patchy low cloudiness is draped
across the highlands and parts of the Downeast region early this
morning due to the humidity working into the area. The low
clouds should mix out early this morning giving way to a partly
sunny, hot and humid day. CAPES today are expected to rise to
1000 J/KG according to the GFS and 2000 J/KG on the NAM. This
raises the possibility for some scattered to isolated
thunderstorms, mainly across the far north. However, strong
ridging and a lack of any surface boundaries will mean there are
no strong triggers to start storms so widespread activity is
not expected. Inland highs should reach around 90 with much
cooler air along the coast.

Tonight will be partly cloudy to mostly clear and not as cold
as last night with lows near 70 north and 60s Downeast. Some
patchy fog will be possible late tonight due to the humidity,
especially Downeast near the coast where the marine influence
will facilitate condensation.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Msly to ptly sunny skies are xpctd on Wed when the upper high
is strongest, msly capping shwrs/tstms. After very warm low
temps and humid conditions Tue Ngt, temps across the Rgn Wed
will soar well into the 90s ovr all inland low trrn lctns, with
an aftn sea breeze cooling the immediate Downeast coast.
Downsloping winds spcly ovr the N hlf of the FA will result in
temps nearly reaching and perhaps even exceeding values seen on
this date in 2020. Alf, the upper ridge/high is sig stronger
than Jun 19th 2020, but the air mass residence is somewhat in
question, with some of the continental drier trop air from the
desert SW being entrained by more humid Gulf of Mex tropical
air. Subsequently, 925 temps max out at +27 deg C Wed Aftn,
about a deg cooler than Jun 19th 2020. However, xtra compression
from a stronger upper high could result in higher llvl lapse
rates, allowing for temps to reach and perhaps even exceed
highs seen on Jun 19th 2020. Current heat hdlns will need to be
xpnded across all xcpt coastal zones of our FA for Wed Aftn.

A first initial weak s/wv from Wrn QB tops the upper ridge late
in the day and erly Eve Wed with a chc of shwrs and isold tstms
msly ovr the NW. Weak cooling alf may weaken the cap enough for
this activity, but will hold off on mentioning any enhanced
elements for this tm frame. Wed Ngt will be fair and very, very
warm with Thu morn lows likely being the warmest of record
across the N, if it were not for a cold frontal passage xpctd
mid Aftn thru erly Eve Thu.

Models then begin to slowly weaken the upper high ovr New Eng
late Wed Ngt into Thu. Still though, the High will remain strong
enough to slow the passage of a cold front from Cntrl Can until
midday hrs for far Nrn areas and by erly Eve for Downeast areas
as a weak flat s/wv tops and suppresses the upper high ovr Srn
New Eng and the Mid Atlc states. High temps will be warmest ovr
Cntrl and Downeast areas where mid to upper 90s will again be
common, with high temps even hot nearly to the beaches of
Downeast Maine with with the sfc pres grad a little more off
shore. High temps ovr the N were also raised a couple of deg F
reflecting a slower cold frontal passage. numerous shwrs and sct
tstms will accompany the cold frontal passage, but with only
modest cooling alf CAPEs will likely be long and skinny,
suggesting lcly heavy downpours, some gusty winds with stronger
tstms as well a frequent cld to grnd ltng with tall ETs. The
best potential of thunder will be ovr N Cntrl and Cntrl ptns of
the FA when the cold front crosses at the heat of the day,
capitalizing on a strong theta-e ridge in place ovr this area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Shwrs and tstms will dissipate late Thu Ngt as the cold front
moves offshore across the Gulf of ME, with cooler temps by erly
Fri Morn for our FA. After msly fair and cooler (but still at to
abv normal temps) Fri and Sat, longer range models are in
better agreement on holding off on any shwrs til Sun and msly
Sun Ngt into Mon as a sig s/wv and sfc low system advcs ESE
from the upper Midwest. PoPs durg this tm frame run in the hi
chc/low likely range with slgt chc tstms mentioned with likely
PoPs for now. High temps Sun and Mon for now look to be near
seasonal norms with abv normal lows, but high temps particularly
on Mon may need to be lowered if shwrs predominate most of the
day.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected today and tonight, except
a chance conditions may briefly drop to MVFR or IFR in southern
sites due to fog late tonight. Winds will be light southerly
today and tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Wed - Sat...mainly VFR all TAF sites with
IFR possible later Wed Ngt into erly Thu Morn at KBHB. Isold
late aftn/erly eve shwrs/tstms Nrn TAF sites Wed with numerous
shwrs and sct tstms Thu Aftn and Erly Eve with brief IFR-MVFR
clgs/vsbys in hvy downpours and gusty winds. Lgt winds xcpt
near tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will be light and seas around 3 to 4 ft today
and 3 ft tonight over the offshore waters. Humid air moving up
over the waters will likely result in fog and mist, possibly
dense at times tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Winds and wvs will cont to remain below SCA
thresholds thru these ptns of the fcst. Went with a blend of wv
model guidance for fcst wv hts. Wvs will be composed of two
spectral groups; a shorter 5-7sec pd group and a 10-12sec pd
swell group. The potential of oceanic fog conts spcly the outer
waters Wed - Thu Eve as blyr dwpts increase well abv water
temps.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temperatures will soar under an anomalously upper level high
pressure system, challenging record high temperatures
and record max minimum temperatures. Multiple days of record
breaking temperatures will lead to dangerous heat without a
chance for reprieve overnight.

June 19th High Temperature Records:
(Forecast)

Caribou (96)96 in 2020
Bangor (96)95 in 1995
Millinocket (97)95 in 2020
Houlton (96)95 in 2020

June 20th Max Minimum Temperature Records:
(Forecast)

Caribou (69)68 in 1970
Bangor (74)72 in 1931
Millinocket (72)69 in 1923
Houlton (69)67 in 1976

June 20th High Temperature Records:
(Forecast)

Caribou (90)            93 in 2020
Bangor (96)             95 in 2020
Millinocket (95)        96 in 2020
Houlton (93)            94 in 2020

All-time Record Highs:
(Forecast, Day)

Caribou (96 June 19)96  June 2020
Bangor (96 June 19/20)104 August 1935
Millinocket(97 June 19) 101 June 1907
Houlton (96 June 19)99  August 1975

All-time Record Max Minimum Temperature Records:
(Forecast, Day)

Caribou (69 June 19)71 in July 2018
Bangor (74 June 19) 77 in August 1949
Millinocket(72 June 20) 80 in July 1912
Houlton (69 June 20) 72 in August 2009

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MEZ002-005-006-011-
     015-031.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer/MStrauser
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Bloomer/VJN
Marine...Bloomer/VJN
Climate...