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829
FXUS61 KCAR 150115
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
915 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will push off the coast overnight followed by high
pressure Saturday into Sunday. High pressure will shift south
of the area on Monday. The area will remain under the influence
of high pressure through later next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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9:15 PM Update: Area radars not showing much across the FA with
a couple of isolated showers in northeast Aroostook County. A
more concentrated area of showers with embedded thunder in south
Maine. Most of the high resolution guidance and global models
indicate an increased chance of showers or even some steadier
rain late tonight into Saturday morning along the coast. Lowered
the PoPs a bit for the next few hours, but no changes overnight
into Saturday morning, but changes could be required if
forecaster confidence increases on the areal coverage of the
precipitation late tonight. The best chance will be along the
Downeast coast with chances dropping off rapidly from Bangor
north.

Previous discussion:
A cold front is working into the North Woods over the next few
hours with scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
front. Main focus for stronger storms will be in the Central
Highlands including Bangor area to Southern Aroostook County.
The extent of storms making it towards the Downeast coast has to
do with the marine boundary extent inland. Given the storms are
linear expecting some storms to survive the trip to the coast.
Storms may produce gusty winds, small hail and heavy rainfall
into the evening. Overall storms will end this evening with
remaining showers along the Downeast coast through much of the
night. Patchy fog will likely develop along the Downeast coast
but mixing tonight should keep much of the CWA without fog
developing. Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 40s
across the North Woods and low 50s elsewhere across the north,
mid 50s for the Central Highlands to Downeast coast. Winds will
shift W-NW behind the front through tonight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Have reduced PoPs and clouds slightly for Downeast on Saturday
as the front is currently expected to make better progress than
previously expected. The remainder of the area will have
excellent weather Saturday through Monday under the dominance of
surface high pressure. Generally clear skies are expected for
most of the area Saturday and Sunday until higher clouds
increase later Sunday into Monday. As upper level ridging and
subsidence increase Sunday into Monday, temperatures will be on
the rise, from the upper 60s to lower 70s on Saturday to the
upper 70s by Monday. The sea breeze returns by Monday for the
coast under a lighter wind regime.

With the cool air mass, we continue to expect some patchy frost
in the North Woods on Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Significant heat wave Tuesday into Thursday

An anomalously powerful upper level ridge builds into the area
Monday night and Thursday and then eases southward as a series
of frontal systems edge into northern zones Thursday afternoon
into Friday.

Dew points will become uncomfortable by Tuesday...reaching the
mid 60s to around 70F and remaining elevated into Thursday
night. This means that heat indices will reach over 100F inland
for Wednesday and Thursday. Heat advisories seem likely for
Wednesday and Thursday. The coast will enjoy the coolest temps
by far with a sea breeze, but temperatures will still be well
into the 80s by Thursday as southwest winds offer less relief.

The last heat wave of this magnitude was in June 2020 when the
all-time record high temperature at Caribou was tied at 96F.
If the forecast does not change, it will probably be one of the
most notable heat waves so far this century. The current
forecast does not feature record highs on any day for Bangor and
Caribou, but the Wednesday forecast high temp of 95F at Caribou
is just a degree shy of the all-time record.

Record high low temperatures may be a better bet Tuesday night
through Thursday night.

Confidence continues to increase in widespread 90s inland for
Tuesday except Downeast. Wednesday continues to look like the
warmest day for most of the area, but the Bangor area and
portions of Downeast could see the warmest temperatures on
Thursday ahead of the front with a more westerly low level flow.

At this point, will discount various deterministic guidance
solutions suggesting convective activity until Thursday
afternoon when more consensus exists for a cold front easing
into northern zones. We expect the front to ease through the
area Thursday night into Friday with some relief in temps for
Friday. Added thunderstorms to the forecast for Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night.

The warm and humid air increases the risk of coastal fog and low
clouds by later Tuesday night into Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected through Saturday. There
is a small chance of MVFR ceilings at KBHB late tonight, but
forecaster confidence was not high enough to include in the 00z
Tafs, but did include a visibility reducing to 5SM in patchy
fog, but confidence is below average. NW wind 5 to 10 knots at
the Aroostook terminals, and SW at KBGR and KBHB shifting NW
overnight. NW wind 10 to 15 knots and gusty Saturday,
diminishing rapidly toward 00z.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday through Wednesday...VFR. Northwest winds on Saturday
and Sunday at 10 to 15 kt when shift to southwest Monday into
Wednesday around 5 to 10 kt. There is a slight risk of fog at
BHB for Wednesday morning.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Seas of 4 to 5 ft on the coastal waters will slowly
subside the remainder of the night, and conditions are expected
to remain below small craft advisory levels through Saturday.
Patchy fog is possible on the waters the remainder of tonight
into Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM: No significant issues are expected until fog returns
Tuesday night into Wednesday...lingering until late week. Seas
will generally remain 3 feet or less in a south swell. The
highest seas will probably be on Sunday when swell may hit up to
4 feet offshore. Northwest winds on Saturday will tend to become
mostly southwest from Sunday through next week.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$


Near Term...CB/Sinko
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...CB/Sinko/MCW
Marine...CB/Sinko/MCW