-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
853
FXUS61 KCLE 310501
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
101 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure for the area through the weekend. Low pressure
system moves through late Saturday into Saturday night with high
pressure returning briefly on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 PM Update...
Slight adjustments were made to temperatures across the western
counties that have not cooled as fast as originally forecast,
but aside from that no other changes were needed with this
update.

630 PM Update...
There were no changes needed with this update.

Previous Discussion...
Surface high pressure builds into the Great Lakes for the near term
portion of the forecast while upper level ridging follows close
behind. Canadian airmass in place with low dewpoints in the upper
30s to lower 40s this evening into tonight. Pressure gradient
disappears as the position of the surface high moves over the CWA,
and a dry column/clear sky sets up efficient radiational cooling
tonight. Mainly lower to mid 40s for the area and lower 50s
near the lakeshore, but the valleys of the eastern half of the
NW PA counties likely will drop into the upper 30s. Not getting
quite cold enough for frost, but outlying locations in this area
should be wary of at least an isolated non- zero chance for
frost to occur. Air might be a touch dry for it and the with
around 3 weeks to go until the summer solstice, the nights are
very short at this point in the calendar year, all working
against the frost potential. Expecting a 30 degree diurnal with
a slight improvement to the temperatures Friday and a return to
widespread low to mid 70s while, again, NW PA lags a touch with
patchy upper 60s. Not as chilly Friday night, but still cool as
we get into the first day of June ranging from the lower 40s in
NW PA to the lower to mid 50s in NW OH. Zero POPs through 12Z
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
On Saturday, fair weather is expected for most of our CWA as a ridge
at the surface and aloft exits E`ward. However, isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along and west of
roughly I-71 during the afternoon and early evening as a shortwave
trough approaches from the Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes, a
surface warm front begins to sweep NE`ward into our CWA, moist
isentropic ascent precedes the shortwave trough axis and occurs
along the upper-reaches of the front, and the ascent releases
instability, including elevated instability. However, instability,
including boundary layer instability, should be weak because of an
initial lack of boundary layer moisture and gradual low-level
moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico. Thus, the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms appears limited despite the
expectation for moderate to strong deep layer bulk shear. Forecast
trends will continue to be monitored. Afternoon highs should reach
mainly the upper 70`s to lower 80`s as peeks of sunshine are
complemented by low-level WAA from the Gulf of Mexico.

Periodic and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected Saturday night through Sunday afternoon as the shortwave
trough traverses our CWA generally from west to east, the surface
warm front sweeps NE`ward through the rest of our region Saturday
night, and a weak cold front sweeps E`ward through Northern OH and
NW PA from about daybreak Sunday morning through the afternoon.
Despite the continued presence of at least moderate deep layer bulk
shear, the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms is expected
to remain very limited due to a similar thermodynamic environment as
described in the above paragraph. Afternoon highs should reach
mainly the upper 60`s to mid 70`s in NW PA and the 70`s to 80F in
Northern OH. Fair weather is expected Sunday evening through
daybreak Monday morning as a ridge at the surface and aloft
amplifies/builds from the Western Great Lakes and is accompanied by
stabilizing subsidence. Lows should reach the 50`s to lower 60`s
around daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Current odds favor fair weather on Monday as the aforementioned
ridge builds and then begins to exit slowly E`ward. Low-level WAA on
the backside of the ridge should contribute to afternoon highs
reaching mainly the lower to mid 80`s. However, a relatively-weak
synoptic MSLP gradient may allow a lake breeze to occur over and
within several miles of the eastern-half of Lake Erie late Monday
morning through early evening and limit highs to the upper 70`s to
80F. Model guidance continues to suggest a slightly tighter MSLP
gradient farther west will prevent a lake breeze circulation from
developing over and within several miles of the western-half of Lake
Erie.

SW`erly to S`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances
should affect our CWA Monday night through Thursday as Northern OH
and NW PA become sandwiched between ridging at the surface and aloft
concentrated to our east and troughing at the surface and aloft
concentrated to our west. Moist isentropic ascent aloft preceding
the shortwave disturbances` axes and low-level convergence/moist
ascent along surface trough axes accompanying the shortwave
disturbances will contribute to the development of periodic and
isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Shower/thunderstorm
coverage is expected to be greatest during each afternoon through
early evening given a typical diurnal cycle in boundary layer
temperatures and instability is expected. Simultaneously, low-level
advection of warm/moist/unstable air from the Gulf of Mexico is
expected to affect our CWA on the backside of the aforementioned
ridge. Overnight lows are expected to reach the 60`s Monday night
through Wednesday night, respectively. Daily afternoon highs are
forecast to range from mainly the upper 70`s to mid 80`s on Tuesday
through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions will continue through this period as high
pressure remains stationed over the area. Skies will be clear
through this evening with high clouds building in from the west
later tonight. Light and variable winds are in place under high
pressure. Light south-southeasterly winds will likely develop at
TOL and FDY this afternoon as high pressure pulls away. A lake
breeze will also bring north-northwest winds of 5 to 10 knots at
CLE and ERI this afternoon. Light winds shift more east-
southeast tonight as high pressure continues to exit.

Outlook...Non-VFR may return late Saturday into Sunday in
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Variable winds around 5 to 10 knots and waves of 2 feet or less are
expected to impact Lake Erie through Friday as a ridge builds from
the Western Great Lakes and vicinity. Winds are expected to become
SE`erly around 5 to 15 knots Friday night and then veer gradually to
SW`erly on Saturday as the ridge exits slowly E`ward and a warm
front drifts NE`ward across the lake. Waves of 3 feet or less are
expected. SW`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots veer toward W`erly or
NW`erly on Sunday as a weak cold front sweeps E`ward across Lake
Erie. Waves remain 3 feet or less.

Winds should become variable around 5 to 10 knots Sunday evening and
then become E`erly to SE`erly around 5 to 15 knots overnight into
Monday as another ridge builds from the Upper Midwest/Western Great
Lakes. E`erly to SE`erly winds are expected to veer to S`erly Monday
night as the ridge begins to exit E`ward and a warm front drifts
N`ward across the lake. S`erly to SW`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots
are expected on Tuesday as Lake Erie becomes sandwiched between the
ridge concentrated to the east and a trough concentrated to the
west. Waves are forecast to remain 3 feet or less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...Campbell/26
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Jaszka