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052
FXUS64 KFWD 270016
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
716 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... 
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/NEW/
/Tonight through Thursday Night/

The earlier cluster of showers and storms has officially exited
our Central Texas counties as of 5 PM, leaving behind generally
hot afternoon conditions for most. Those in East Texas that were
lucky enough to experience the rain and cloud cover only observed
high temperatures in the low 90s, while elsewhere peaked in the
mid 90s to just above 100 degrees. Heat indices generally spiked
near/above 105 degrees, with Sherman taking the unwanted trophy
for highest heat index of 115.

A weak surface cold front that currently draped across Southern
Oklahoma and Arkansas will continue southward as its attached
upper shortwave trough enters the Deep South. As the front inches
closer to the Red River, it will become a focusing point for
renewed development of isolated-scattered showers and storms as it
pushes into North Texas. Additionally, a left-over N-S oriented
stationary outflow boundary can be seen on radar bisecting Dallas
County, which will serve as another area to watch for development
this evening. We`re already starting to see convective development
just to the north of/along the Red River as of 6:30 PM, and this
will persist through the overnight. RAP analysis in this area
shows some steeper lapse rates and increased MUCAPE, promoting the
potential for strong to marginally severe storms. Strong
downburst winds and small hail may accompany the more robust cells
alongside an overall lightning risk. Precipitation should
diminish by early tomorrow morning, leaving behind overall warm
and humid conditions across the region. Expect Thursday morning
lows in the 70s and low 80s.

Going into Thursday afternoon, the front will continue to be draped
NW to SE across North Texas. Diurnal heating will allow for
isolated showers and storms once again along and ahead of the
stalled front, mainly in western North Texas and across Central
Texas. The same threats of gusty downburst winds and small hail
will persist with the stronger storms. Unfortunately, most will
remain dry through the short term period, with afternoon
temperatures peaking in the mid 90s to around 103 outside of any
precipitation. Humid conditions will continue to push heat indices
above the air temperature, generally peaking between triple
digits to just above 110. Once again, storms will dissipate over
the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. Another warm
overnight is expected with Friday morning low temperatures in the
70s and low 80s.

With oppressive summer heat continuing, the Heat Advisory will
remain in effect through at least 7 PM Thursday for all of North and
Central Texas, and will likely continue to be extended on a day by
day basis. The big question is whether some counties will meet the
need for an Excessive Heat Warning. Our criteria for an EHW is a
high of at least 105 and/or a peak heat index of at least 110 for
two consecutive days. Today, a few observation sites met/exceeded a
heat index of 110, mainly near/along the I-35 corridor in North
Texas. Tomorrow, heat index near/higher than 110 is expected to be
observed along I-35 near and south of the Metroplex. Because of
the variation of the locations and not meeting the two day
criteria, will not be upgrading any county to an Excessive Heat
Warning at this time.

Prater
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&&

.LONG TERM... 
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/Issued 254 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024/
/Friday Through Independence Day/

Mid-level ridging will continue to bake North and Central Texas
into early July. The anticyclone will gradually reposition itself
from its current location over the Desert Southwest into the
Southeast U.S. by the middle of next week. Our 500mb heights will
peak during the weekend into early next week as the dome transits
the region, the cumulative heat yielding the highest temperatures
toward the end of that period (Monday and Tuesday).

This will mean clear nights and partly cloudy days as rich Gulf
moisture lifts into a cumulus field. DFW`s dew point soared to 77F
during the daylight hours of this morning, just one degree shy of
the record value for June 26. Thankfully, our daily max and min
dew points will gradually decrease over the next several days as
the heat builds and the mixing depth steadily increases. After
many days with 70F+ dew points at peak heating, much of the region
will see dew point values mix out into the 60s next week. That`s
not dry by any means, but max heat index values (while still
within Heat Advisory criteria) will be less likely to reach 110
despite the hottest temperatures so far this year.

The only decent chance for rain during the period will be Sunday
across portions of Northeast Texas. A shortwave will skirt the
Canadian border late in the week, sending a cold front deep into
the Southern Plains. But the intensity of the ridge will slow its
progress and prevent any associated precipitation from impacting
areas beyond the low chances within the Ark-La-Tex.

By July 4, North and Central Texas will be on the western
periphery of the ridge. While heights will still be indicative of
subsidence, the sea breeze may activate to our south, and another
cold front to our north could disrupt holiday festivities in
Oklahoma. Both areas will bear watching for potential impacts
within our region.

25
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&&

.AVIATION... 
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/NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

D10: A weak cold front will move into North Texas tonight,
allowing for isolated showers and storms across portions of North
and East Texas. The chance of direct impacts to the terminals are
low as coverage will remain sparse, so have continued with a VCTS
at all D10 sites from 03-06Z this evening. While VFR will persist,
southerly winds will back to the east overnight as the front moves
closer, with speeds around 10 kts or less persisting through the
rest of the period.

ACT: Southerly winds will persist through tomorrow morning, before
veering west-southwest. A weak front will stall to the north and
east of ACT tomorrow, keeping winds from turning northerly.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible over the
late afternoon hours across portions of the Big Country and
Central Texas tomorrow, and have introduced a VCTS at ACT starting
at 21Z.

Prater
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&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  99  81 100  81 /  20   0   0   0   0
Waco                79  99  79  98  78 /  10  20  10   0   0
Paris               75  94  74  97  79 /  20   0   0   0   0
Denton              79  98  79 102  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
McKinney            79  96  79  99  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
Dallas              80  99  81 100  80 /  20   0   0   0   0
Terrell             77  95  77  97  78 /  20   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           80  97  79  99  80 /  10   5   0   0   0
Temple              79  99  78  98  78 /   5  20  10   0   0
Mineral Wells       78 101  79 101  79 /   5  20  10   0   0
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&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$