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270
FXUS66 KMFR 162148
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
248 PM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.DISCUSSION...
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An upper low off the PacNW coast will continue to
move east/southeast across the area...bringing below normal
temperatures...lots of clouds...and some rain. A band of rain
extending from Curry county east into central and northern
Klamath county is moving slowly southeast. We even experienced a
few drops stepping outside of the office in Medford during the
last hour. Expect any precipitation activity to slowly subside
into Monday morning. The best chance for rain into tomorrow
morning will be in Lake county and lingering over the Cascades.

Otherwise...after the next 12 to 16 hours...dry weather is in
store for next 7 days.

Temperatures today and tomorrow will generally be around 10
degrees below normal...before high pressure takes hold of the area
early next week into at least the end of the work week. By
Tuesday...temperatures will be near normal...rapidly warming to 10
to 15 degrees above normal by the middle to end of the work week
next week. There is little disagreement in the clusters/ensembles
through next weekend in the fact that we will be dry and warm.
There are some differences in the extended clusters as far as the
positioning of an upper low in the Gulf of Alaska toward the end
of next weekend...with about a 30% to 40% chance of cooler
temperatures late next weekend into the following week.

According to the Climate Prediction Center`s 8 to 14 day
outlook...Valid June 24th through June 30th...there is about a 30
to 50% chance of below normal temperatures. It seems as though
summer is having a hard time establishing its grip on the
area...and I`m OK with that!

-Riley
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&&

.AVIATION...
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16/18Z TAFs...A weak cold front will move through the
area from north to south today. The biggest impact from the front at
the terminals will be the gusty north-northwest winds behind the
front this afternoon and evening. Conditions are expected to remain
VFR at the terminals during the frontal passage but ceilings will
lower at bit through the day and we will probably see some mountain
obscurations and showers along the west slopes of the Cascades and
Siskiyous.

Guidance continues to show an area of enhanced showers
developing in the vicinity of Crater Lake and sliding across
northern sections of Klamath and Lake counties late this afternoon
and evening. There is a small chance of a thunderstorm (5-15%)
within this area as well, but it should remain north of KLMT. -Wright
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&&

.MARINE...
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Updated 200 PM Sunday, June 16, 2024...A weak cold front
is moving through the waters this afternoon, and north winds will
strengthen through the evening and overnight as the front moves
inland and high pressure builds in from the northwest. Winds and
seas will build to small craft advisory levels south of Cape Blanco
this evening and remain hazardous through at least Wednesday
evening. As a result, the small craft advisory for the southern
waters has been extended through that time.

This north wind pattern remains in place from Wednesday night
onward, but the tendency is for winds and seas to decrease a little.
Confidence in this happening is not high, so it would not be
surprising if we ended up extending the small craft advisory further
in time. Will wait for confidence to increase before making that
decision. -Wright
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&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OR...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM PDT Monday for
     ORZ029>031.

CA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM PDT Monday for
     CAZ084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening
     to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-376.
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&&

$$