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562
FXUS62 KMHX 210538
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
138 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure continues to extend across the Carolinas with
weak coastal troughing just off of the coast in place through
tomorrow. This may bring some showers to the region into the
weekend. A steady increase in heat and humidity is expected over
the next several days with "feels like" temperatures
potentially reaching the triple digits on Sunday. The next
chance for much needed appreciable rain comes early next week
with a frontal passage.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
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As of 900 PM Thu...No changes to previous thinking. Mid-level
ridge remains in place over much of the eastern CONUS this
evening as expansive Atlantic high pressure continues to ridge
west over the Carolinas the past several days. Main difference
in the pattern today is a weak tropical wave just north of the
Bahamas, which is forecast to drift towards and eventually
across the far southeastern coast. Eastern NC won`t feel any
direct impacts from this wave, but it will serve as a source for
deeper moisture to attempt to move into the area over the
weekend.

Another dry and mostly cloudless night is on tap for tonight.
Given the persistent easterly flow, however, low-level moisture
continues to move in under the nocturnal low level inversion and
with a radiational cooling, the set up for some patchy fog is
probable in the pre-dawn hours. Best signal for formation is
west of Highway 17, but shallow low impact fog is possible
anywhere in well sheltered locations. Lows tonight will be
similar to last night, in the low to mid 60s inland and upper
60s to low 70s along the coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 345 PM Thu...Coastal trough will gradually sharpen
offshore as aforementioned tropical wave shifts toward coastal
GA/FL in the morning. With the deeper moisture advection, the
trough will provide a focal point for shower develop and likely
a few thunderstorms given ample instability offshore thanks to
warm SSTs. Hi-res guidance continues to favor some of this
activity penetrating inland, mainly along the Crystal Coast and
the Outer Banks from Cape Hatteras south, and maintained
mentionable PoPs for these areas from the previous forecast. A
second round of convection is possible along the sea breeze in
the afternoon. Farther inland, high pressure and subsidence
aloft will stubbornly remain in place maintaining hot and dry
conditions. Here, highs will climb into the low 90s but dew
points will make a run towards the low 60s. Along the coast,
highs settle in the upper 80s but dew points will climb well
into the upper 60s to potentially 70 along the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 315 AM Thursday...

 - Still watching the SW Atlantic

 - Increased risk of heat impacts late-weekend into next week

 - Increased risk of thunderstorms next week

Synoptic Summary: Persistent, and anomalous, ridging aloft over
the Eastern U.S. is forecast to finally break down by this
weekend, with broad troughing continuing into next week. At the
SFC, low pressure is forecast to move across the SW Atlantic and
towards the FL/GA coast on Friday, with coastal troughing
developing north through the coast of the Carolinas. Broad
surface troughing is then forecast to develop across the Eastern
U.S. over the weekend, and last into next week. A front, or
two, may attempt to make a run at ENC next week.

Saturday-Sunday: High pressure shifting further east out into
the Atlantic will allow a warming, and moistening, southerly
flow to develop over the weekend. Despite the increasing
moisture, it doesn`t look like the chance of precip will
immediately respond, mainly due to a lack of better instability.
At minimum, though, it looks like a few showers or storms may
develop on the seabreeze both days. The bigger story over the
weekend will be the building heat. With the southerly flow
developing, we`ll lose the "cooler" easterly flow of late that
has helped keep temps and humidity at more comfortable levels.
Both deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show a good
signal for heat-related impacts, especially on Sunday, as heat
indices ("feels like" temps) reach 100-105 degrees. Sunday could
be our first opportunity for heat headlines if recent trends
hold.

Monday-Thursday: Humidity will continue to increase next week
with a continued southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico and
western Atlantic. With increasing low-level thicknesses, the
heat and humidity combination is expected to lead to a continued
risk of heat- related impacts. The risk of thunderstorms will
be increasing during this time as well, though, which will have
a daily impact on where the greatest risk of dangerous heat will
be. Bottom line, there continues to be a good signal for
multiple days of an elevated to significant heat risk for much
of the area.

Regarding the thunderstorm risk, Monday continues to be the day
favored for the highest chance, and is also the next appreciable
chance of wetting rainfall to help offset the recent stretch of dry
weather. Guidance differs on the timing of a couple of fronts that
may attempt to move into the area, which of course factors into
where the greatest coverage of thunderstorms will be. Also of note,
some guidance hint at the remnants of the SW Atlantic wave getting
pulled northeast through the area. If this were to occur, this would
support an increased risk of precip. Lastly, the shear/instability
combo still appears supportive of a marginal severe weather risk on
Monday, and that will be something to watch in the coming days.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through 06z Saturday/...
As of 115 AM Friday...

 - Periods of MVFR conditions possible through Friday night
   (50-70% chance)

 - TSRA possible along the immediate coastline Friday (20-30%
   chance)

An area of low pressure will track westward across the SW
Atlantic, reaching the FL/GA coastline later Friday or Friday
evening. North of the low, a zone of deeper low-mid level
moisture will attempt to work north and west towards the coast
of the Carolinas with an increased risk of sub-VFR CIGS. At this
time, it appears the greatest risk will be confined to the
immediate coastal areas, and I`ve opted to keep CIGs out of the
TAFs for now. Later Friday evening into Friday night, guidance
is showing a stronger signal for sub-VFR CIGs as moisture
continues to get pulled into the area. There`s still some
uncertainty regarding how quickly this moisture return will
occur, and I kept the TAFs VFR for now. Of note, as moisture
increases, there appears to be a decent opportunity for SHRA and
TSRA activity offshore and along the immediate coastal areas.
Like with the CIGs, it appears the greatest chance will be south
and east of our TAF sites, so no mention of SHRA or TSRA for
now. Lastly, both tonight and Friday night, there will be a
chance of sub-VFR VIS due to shallow fog. I stuck close to the
previous TAFs and kept a 5SM BR mention in to account for the
potential overnight. For Friday night, it`s less certain whether
it will be low stratus or FG, but either way there is a sub-VFR
risk worth monitoring.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...

 - Increased risk of TSRA and sub-VFR conditions Monday

Isolated SHRA and TSRA may develop each day along the seabreeze
over the weekend. A better chance of TSRA and sub-VFR
conditions is still expected Monday. A period of breeze
southwesterly winds is expected Sunday into Monday as well, with
non-TSRA gusts of 20-25kt possible.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 900 PM Thu...No changes to previous thinking. Swell from
a weak tropical wave just north of the Bahamas this evening
continues to encroach into our offshore waters, mainly south of
Cape Hatteras, where seas remain 5-7 feet. High pressure remains
in control with another night of easterly flow around 10-15 kt.
The tropical wave is forecast to drift inland near the FL/GA
border tomorrow morning, and this afternoon`s swell will
gradually abate through the evening. SCAs for the waters south
of Ocracoke Inlet have been extended through the evening, but
all others were previously dropped as waves subsided to 3 to 5
feet.

Another benign day of boating conditions returns tomorrow, with
winds gradually veering more southerly through the day as the
surface high finally begins to move further offshore. Winds will
generally be no higher than 10 kt and seas will be able to
return back to around 4 feet, except 3 feet closer to shore.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...

 - Elevated wind and seas Monday

 - Increased thunderstorm risk on Monday

Elevated seas from today will begin to slow lay down on Friday
as the persistent easterly flow of late begins to subside.
Weaker flow continues into Saturday, with south winds of 5-15kt
common. That southerly flow will notably increase to 15-25kt
Sunday into Monday, with a subsequent increase in seas to 4-6 ft
once again. Sunday and Monday will present the next chance of
SCA conditions. Coastal troughing developing on Friday now
appears more supportive of scattered showers and thunderstorms,
especially for the waters south of Cape Hatteras. This risk then
subsides over the weekend some, before increasing again as we
move into early next week.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 4 AM Thur...Minimum RHs will reach 35-40% this afternoon
(primarily away from the coast). Given the continued dry airmass,
dry fuels, and E`rly breezes, these conditions remain noteworthy
for any ongoing, or planned, fires.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ195-196-199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ156-158.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM/JME/MS
FIRE WEATHER...MHX