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554
FXUS62 KMHX 202228
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
628 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge southwards across the Carolinas and
will continue to wedge itself southwards across the Mid-Atlantic
through this weekend allowing for benign conditions across the
area. Next potential frontal system doesn`t near ENC until at
least mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 630 PM Fri...No significant changes needed to previous
forecast for early evening update. High pressure continues to
ridge southwards over the Carolinas ending any precip threat we
had this afternoon as dry air continues to work its way S`wards
over ENC tonight. Expecting good radiational cooling with mostly
clear skies and light winds which should promote the
development of patchy fog and/or low clouds again after
midnight. One caveat to the fog threat is if enough low cloud
cover overspreads ENC tonight the patchy fog threat would be
lower than currently indicated. Lows inland will be in the low
to mid 60s and upper 60s along the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 320 PM Fri... Rather benign day as high pressure over the
Eastern Seaboard moves little keeping the area dry and warm.
Any leftover patchy fog quickly dissipates after sunrise. Still
expect a diurnal Cu field to develop in the late morning to
early afternoon but don`t expect any precip through the day.
Highs get into the upper 70s to mid 80s resulting in a rather
great start to the weekend. One thing to note is the King Tide
will peak this weekend resulting in a threat for some minor
coastal flooding on Sat around times of high tide (SEE COASTAL
FLOOD SECTION for more details).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Ridging starts building in through the
weekend as a low spins up offshore to our northeast, gradually
shifting further offshore to our east. Slight chances of rain
Sunday-Sunday night (20%) but otherwise a dry forecast through
Tuesday. Seasonable temps through the period and generally dry
through Tuesday evening. Rain chances increase mid to late week
as ridging weakens and a low treks across the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes region.

The Weekend:
Expanded the slight chance of showers (and thunderstorms during
peak heating) Sunday with synoptic models all keying in on 2
waves of potential rainfall.

First Sunday morning a weak front and associated isentropic lift
from a low developing near the Great Lakes moves through the
region. Ridging from a high to our E/SE will help shelter the
southern half of the CWA from rainfall, but have expanded the
slight chance PoP mentions for the northern half where ridging
is a bit weaker. This front fizzles out as it crosses our CWA.

The second wave looks to be Sunday afternoon/evening as a
boundary ahead of ridging building in from the north could
initiate showers over ENC. Introduced Schc PoPs with this
update, opting to not go higher as we have a lack of upper level
support.

Monday-Thursday:
Low offshore could produce high swell impacting OBX beaches
Monday-Tuesday. See TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for more
information.

Ridging and dry conditions continue through Tuesday evening.
Tuesday night ridging starts to weaken over ENC as a low
approaches from the midwest, pushing the high further northeast.
While a cold front from this low will be pushing through the
ohio and mississippi valley Tuesday, there is uncertainty on
when the front will reach us. If the ridge takes longer to move
out of here, the front could reach us as soon as Wednesday
morning. There is also a chance that the front doesn`t reach us
at all if ridge remains stubborn. Kept PoPs at Schc for now
Wednesday with so much uncertainty with the front. High
offshore helps channel moisture towards ENC mid to late week,
increasing PoPs to Chc/Schc Wednesday night onwards as we enter
a wetter pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Saturday morning/...
As of 630 PM Fri...VFR conditions forecast across ENC this
afternoon with diurnal cu field beginning to dissipate. Ample
low level moisture remains in place overnight, and with light
winds, and clearing skies, guidance continues to show the
potential for patchy fog and low stratus, mainly along and west
of Hwy 17. All terminals have the potential for IFR conditions,
with best chances at PGV, ISO and OAJ between 6-13z. Will note
some of the guidance is giving a low end chance that the low
stratus will inhibit fog formation but as of this update the
possibility seems too low to discount fog threat. After about
13Z any leftover patchy fog and low stratus quickly dissipate
and VFR conditions return for Sat.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 345 AM Friday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
long term
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/...
As of 630 PM Fri...Latest obs show NE winds 10-20 kt gusting up
to 25 kt across the outer central waters, with seas 4-6 ft
north of Ocracoke and 2-4 ft south. No changes in the forecast
as SCA`s will remain in effect for the waters north of Ocracoke
Inlet through this weekend and into early next week as swell
from a low pressure system in the northwest- Atlantic moves into
the northern and central waters today and tonight. N to NE
winds at 5-15 kt will persist through the period as high
pressure builds over the waters from the north. 2 to 4 ft seas
south of Ocracoke Inlet will build to 3-5 ft tonight and remain
at 3-5 ft through Sat. North of Ocracoke Inlet seas will remain
4-6 ft through Sat.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 400 AM Friday...SCA In Effect through 6Z Tuesday (and
will likely need to be extended further with future updates) for
coastal waters north of Ocracoke.

Sustained NE winds 10-15 kt Saturday and Sunday, then 15-20 kt
Monday before dropping back down to 10-15 kt Tuesday. Winds have
continued trending down Sunday into Monday, forecasted to remain
generally below 25 kts. Waves greater than 6 ft from the low
offshore have warranted an SCA issuance for the coastal waters
N of Ocracoke (with other coastal waters also likely to reach
SCA criteria seas early next week given the current forecast),
Seas will be 2-7 ft Saturday, 2-6 ft Sunday, and 2-8 ft
Monday/Tuesday as gusty winds + the low offshore results in
higher swell. Waters off Crystal Coast and coastal Onslow will
be a bit protected from the more easterly swell courtesy of Cape
Lookout, and will be on the lower end of these wave height
ranges. OBX (particularly north of Hatteras) and the Gulf Stream will
not be protected and will see the higher values in the ranges
above.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 320 PM Fri...Coastal flooding will continue to be a
threat given the higher than normal astronomical tide cycle into
early next week during high tide each day. Coastal Flood
Advisories remain in effect for all oceanside coastal areas into
Monday mornings high tide. Increased swell from a low offshore
brings minor overwash concerns early next week for OBX north of
Cape Hatteras.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...CQD/RCF/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RCF/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX