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143
FXUS62 KMHX 180741
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
341 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates through Thursday resulting in dry and
warm conditions. Coastal troughing may bring some showers to
the region late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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As of 3:30 AM Tuesday...The mid-level ridge is centered over eastern
NC and the surface high pressure is centered off the northeast
coast. Warm and dry conditions will prevail today with highs nearing
90 across the coastal plain and low to mid 80s along the beaches and
OBX. With dew points in the low 60s and an easterly breeze, it will
be quite pleasant. Those lower dew points will feel nice but they
will also present increased fire weather concerns with minimum RHs
around 35-40% across the inner coastal plain. See the Fire Weather
section for details.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 3:30 AM Tuesday...Another pleasant evening is in store with
lows ranging from the mid 60s across the inner coastal plain to low
70s along the OBX. Cloud cover will increase from east to west
overnight as low level moisture increases.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Pleasant but dry weather through mid week,
then heat and humidity build at the end of the week through the
weekend. Small chances for showers and perhaps a few storms
Friday into the weekend.

Tuesday through Thursday...Strong ridging will build over the
eastern US through mid- week, which will bring cont rain- free
weather. The core of the ridging will remain north of ENC
initially, and thus keeping the intense heat to the north across
the Mid Atlantic, Great Lakes, and Northeast. For ENC, easterly
flow is expected, which will keep conditions tempered, and in
fact quite pleasant. Highs expected in the mid-upr 80s interior,
to low 80s OBX. In addition, TD`s will be very tolerable, and
remain in the 60s. This will bring cool nights to the region,
with lows in the 60s away from the immediate coast, to low 70s
beaches and OBX zones.

Friday through the Weekend...There are still notable
differences in the long range models, but the consensus is that
weak low pres will develop east of the Bahamas and move west
towards the Southeast Coast (FL/GA). Center of upr ridge will
slide eastward a bit with a weakness allowing for some weak mid
level troughing, and allowing for more of a serly to srly flow
to develop and bring inc heat and humidity starting late this
work week into the weekend. PoPs remain low, though by Fri into
the weekend, some chance of a return to typical afternoon/early
evening sea breeze convection. Pops remain at only 20-30%, as
no strong forcing feature is noted on med range ensembles. Temps
will be on the rise, into the 90s Fri into the weekend. TD`s
will rise steadily as well, and a potential for heat indices
into the upr 90s to low 100s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tue/...
As of 1 AM Tuesday...Pred VFR through the period thanks to high
pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast. Skies should be mostly
clear tonight outside of a few high clouds. Winds are out of the
southeast but will back to the east overnight and remain nearly
calm (less than 5 kt). A lack of moisture will deflect
widespread fog development overnight but offshore strato-cu is
drifting westward and could bring some MVFR cigs along the OBX.
Tomorrow, skies will remain mostly clear outside of some diurnal
cu and winds will be light out of the east. Similarly to
tonight, some MVFR cigs could spread inland tomorrow night.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...VFR conditions expected through the period
with high pressure remaining dominant through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 3:30 AM Tuesday...Warm and dry with sub-SCA conditions through
the period. Winds will be ESE 5-15 kt with gusts and 2-4 ft seas.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Sub- SCA through the period with high pressure
anchored to the north of ENC. Light to moderate erly flow of
10-15 kt, ocnl gusts to 20 kt expected. Seas will generally be
2-4 ft through mid week. Low pres will develop east of the
Bahamas this week and approach the SE Coast (FL/GA) by mid week.
Some higher swell may approach and seas possibly exceeding 6 ft
Wed night into Thu for the ctrl/srn waters.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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As of 3:30 AM Tue...A dry airmass will be in place through mid
week, with minimum RH in the 30s and 40s percent, especially
away from the coast. This will overlap with breezy E winds at
times, and is noteworthy for any ongoing, or planned, fires.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...OJC/RM
MARINE...OJC/RM
FIRE WEATHER...MHX