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971
FXUS62 KMHX 012205
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
605 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Cooler and dry high pressure builds overhead through the
weekend. A backdoor front likely moves through the area late
Monday, with high pressure building in behind it from the north
through midweek. Thereafter high pressure will reestablish
offshore through late next week with increasingly unsettled
conditions possible.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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As of 605 PM Sat...Expansive ridging sits over the eastern
seaboard this afternoon while surface high pressure gradually
slides off the coast of the Carolinas tonight. With hardly any
synoptic flow earlier today, sea and sound breeze circulations
were the dominant drivers behind primarily easterly to
southeasterly winds across the area. Low levels are too dry to
support cu field development, but cirrus coverage continues to
gradually increase as a plume of moisture associated with a
barotropic low over the central MS River Valley, and attendant
surface front draped south to the Gulf of Mexico, shifts
eastward.

Forecast tonight is dry but increasingly cloudy as upper level
moisture continues to increase, aiding in broken to near
overcast skies. The increased coverage will inhibit the kind of
radiational cooling we saw last night, although temps may be
able to drop a bit initially after sunset while coverage remains
scattered.

With the surface high shifting offshore, winds overnight become
southerly to southwesterly encouraging low-level moistening.
Consequently, overnight lows will be considerably more mild with
lows ranging from the mid to upper 50s inland to the low to mid 60s
along the water.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 310 PM Sat...Heights fall tomorrow as central CONUS low
pressure lifts towards the Great Lakes, breaking down the ridge.
Surface high pressure will remain in control tomorrow while
shifting further offshore. Low-level thicknesses increase
modestly, and nudged highs up a couple degrees from the previous
forecast (mid 80s, low 80s OBX). A minority of CAMs are hinting
at a few showers developing along the sea breeze in the
afternoon, but think surface subsidence will win out and kept
PoPs below mentionable.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Pleasant and below normal conditions continue
Sunday. Then conditions become more unsettled Monday ahead of a
backdoor cold front which will move through the area Monday
night and bring slightly cooler conditions through Wednesday.
Scattered precip chances continue Tuesday, and then increasingly
unsettled weather is expected Wednesday through late week as
moist southerly flow increases.

Monday and Tuesday...Moisture will continue to spread into the
area early Monday morning from the top down, and may produce
some isolated showers through daybreak. Moisture advection
continues Monday as PWATs surge above 1.5", and expect a decent
coverage (~40%) of showers and thunderstorms with building
instability and the development of sea/sound breezes.

A backdoor cold front will move through the forecast area
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning and bring a more stable
and slightly cooler airmass to the coast. Onshore flow will keep
coastal areas mostly in the 70s, but further inland temps will
climb into the low to mid 80s, and encourage some scattered
afternoon thunderstorm development.

Wednesday through Friday...Moisture looks to quickly surge back
into the forecast area Wednesday as the high pressure to the
north breaks down. Southerly flow will return late in the day,
and will then continue through late week as high pressure
rebuilds offshore. Continued moisture advection will bring PWATs
up to 1.5-2" late next week, and there is a signal for unsettled
conditions ahead of a potent upper level trough. Temperatures
will climb to near normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s
each day, and lows mostly in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 605 PM Sat...The probability of IFR flight conditions
over the next 24 hours is very low...less than 10%.

VFR conditions with light winds are forecast to prevail across
all terminals through Sunday as high pressure continues to
influence the weather. Cirri will be gradually increasing from
the west as moisture plume ahead of a weak barotropic low over
the central MS River Valley shifts eastward. Deepest moisture is
confined in the mid and high levels and only impact overnight
will be the introduction of cigs above 12 kft. The clouds will
should play spoiler to any threat of fog at the terminals
overnight by inhibiting radiational cooling. By tomorrow
morning, the Cirrus should move well east but increasing low-
level moisture with southerly return flow will aid in eventual
diurnal cu development Sun afternoon.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Mostly VFR conditions are expected Sunday
with high pressure overhead. More unsettled conditions are
possible Monday through Wednesday which could bring some periods
of sub-VFR conditions to the terminals.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /Tonight and Sunday/...
As of 605 PM Sun...Benign boating conditions expected through
the period as sprawling high pressure shifts offshore but
remains in control over area waters over the next 24 hours.
Light winds currently over the region early this evening, with
sea and sound breezes being the dominant circulations but
keeping winds at 10 kts or less. As the high moves further out
to sea, winds overnight veer predominantly south to
southwesterly around 10 kt and remain so into Sun afternoon.
Increasing thermal gradient tomorrow afternoon will increase
winds late in the day to 10-15 kt, especially for soundside
waters and offshore waters north of Cape Hatteras.

Currently observed seas of 2-3 feet will hold steady through the
period.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Good boating conditions expected through the
period. High pressure continues over the waters Sunday and
Monday, and then a backdoor front moves through early Tuesday
and keep light onshore flow into Wednesday.

Winds will be mostly S 5-15 kts Sunday, and then turn to the SSW
Monday at 10-15 kts. Backdoor front moves through the waters
early Tuesday with winds becoming NNE behind it at 5-15 kts.
Flow then become E to SE Wednesday at 5-15 kts. Seas will be
mostly 2-3 ft through the period.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...JME/SGK/MS
MARINE...JME/SGK/MS