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475
FXUS62 KMHX 011043
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
643 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier high pressure builds overhead through the
weekend. A backdoor front likely moves through the area late
Monday, with high pressure building in behind it from the north
through midweek. Thereafter high pressure will reestablish
offshore through late next week with increasingly unsettled
conditions possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 635 AM Sat... No significant changes to the forecast on
this update. High pressure remains overhead which has resulted
in clear skies, calm winds, and cool temps this morning. While
we approached record lows across several sites this morning, we
generally fell a few degrees off breaking record lows. One of
the coldest spots this morning ended up being Kenansville with
a current temperature of 46 F this morning. Otherwise widespread
temps in the mid 40s to low 50s can be found inland with mid
50s to low 60s found along the OBX.

As we get into today, upper level and surface ridging remain
over the Eastern Seaboard resulting in a warm but dry start to
meteorological summer. Kept dewpoints slightly below the lowest
guidance today given lack of change in the dry airmass
overhead. Seabreeze does develop this afternoon which could
result in some gusty winds behind it as light and variable winds
become S`rly behind the seabreeze at 5-10 mph with a few gusts
up around 15-20 mph at times this afternoon.

With increasing low-level heights, temperatures will warm into the
low to mid 80s inland, mid to upper 70s along the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 3 AM Sat... Upper level and surface ridging do finally
push offshore tonight, though winds will be light and variable
across the entire region. Skies will remain mo clear to start
this evening allowing for another night of good radiational
cooling through at least the first half of the night. As the
upper level high pushes further offshore, upper level flow will
become SW`rly allowing upper level moisture to finally begin to
overspread ENC late Sat night. As a result high clouds begin to
build in from the south and west likely slowing any temperatures
drops after about midnight. High clouds continue to overspread
the region towards daybreak with lows getting into the mid to
upper 50s inland and mid 60s along the OBX and immediate coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Pleasant and below normal conditions continue
Sunday. Then conditions become more unsettled Monday ahead of a
backdoor cold front which will move through the area Monday
night and bring slightly cooler conditions through Wednesday.
Scattered precip chances continue Tuesday, and then increasingly
unsettled weather is expected Wednesday through late week as
moist southerly flow increases.

Sunday...High pressure continues just offshore Sunday, and our
cooler and drier airmass holds on for one more day. Expect highs
mostly in the low 80s with some isolated mid 80s possible. Only
potential fly in the ointment will be the coverage and thickness
of high based clouds, which could produce overcast conditions at
times during the day, especially over the coastal plain.

Monday and Tuesday...Moisture will continue to spread into the
area early Monday morning from the top down, and may produce
some isolated showers through daybreak. Moisture advection
continues Monday as PWATs surge above 1.5", and expect a decent
coverage (~40%) of showers and thunderstorms with building
instability and the development of sea/sound breezes.

A backdoor cold front will move through the forecast area
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning and bring a more stable
and slightly cooler airmass to the coast. Onshore flow will keep
coastal areas mostly in the 70s, but further inland temps will
climb into the low to mid 80s, and encourage some scattered
afternoon thunderstorm development.

Wednesday through Friday...Moisture looks to quickly surge back
into the forecast area Wednesday as the high pressure to the
north breaks down. Southerly flow will return late in the day,
and will then continue through late week as high pressure
rebuilds offshore. Continued moisture advection will bring PWATs
up to 1.5-2" late next week, and there is a signal for unsettled
conditions ahead of a potent upper level trough. Temperatures
will climb to near normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s
each day, and lows mostly in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Saturday night/...
As of 640 AM Sat...We did end up with some brief periods of MIFG
this morning across the EWN/PGV TAF sites, though there will be
minimal impact to operations from this ground fog. Expect ground
fog to dissipate within the next hour or so if not already with
VFR conditions and generally light winds forecast through the
TAF period across ENC as high pressure remains overhead. Expect
gusty S`rly winds (around 15 kts) behind the seabreeze Sat
afternoon and have since added this into the TAF`s on this
update. As we get into this evening and tonight, increasing
upper level moisture will bring high clouds to ENC. Clouds will
build in from the south and west this evening though ceilings
are forecast to remain above 15 kft, so no impact to operations
are expected.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Mostly VFR conditions are expected Sunday
with high pressure overhead. More unsettled conditions are
possible Monday through Wednesday which could bring some periods
of sub-VFR conditions to the terminals.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Saturday night/...
As of 3 AM Sat... Rather benign boating conditions are forecast
through tonight across our waters as high pressure ridging
which is currently overhead slowly slides offshore. This will
keep things dry across our waters while NW to NE`rly winds at
5-10 kts gradually shift to an E to SE`rly direction at about
5-15 kts this afternoon. Winds become more S`rly tonight
persisting at about 5-10 kts. Current observed seas of 2-3 feet
will remain steady through tonight, with seas nearshore
remaining slightly lower, around 1 to 2 feet.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Good boating conditions expected through the
period. High pressure continues over the waters Sunday and
Monday, and then a backdoor front moves through early Tuesday
and keep light onshore flow into Wednesday.

Winds will be mostly S 5-15 kts Sunday, and then turn to the SSW
Monday at 10-15 kts. Backdoor front moves through the waters
early Tuesday with winds becoming NNE behind it at 5-15 kts.
Flow then become E to SE Wednesday at 5-15 kts. Seas will be
mostly 2-3 ft through the period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...SGK/RCF