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605
FXUS62 KMHX 081903
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
303 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build in behind a departing cold front
this morning. Another front will move through Sunday night into
early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1500 Saturday...Very quiet start to the weekend expected
as the surface high continues to gradually build overhead.
Sunny skies prevail early but a quick moving shortwave
currently approaching the Apps will bring a gradual increase in
mid and high level clouds late. Winds remain light, generally
at 5 kt or less with sea and sound breeze circulations quickly
becoming dominant this afternoon. Despite the passage of the
front, highs will only be a degree or two less than yesterday
with a few 90-degree readings probable especially for areas
south and west of Highway 70. Still, with Tds falling into the
low to mid 50s it will be less muggy than normal for early June.

High pressure will begin to weaken overnight as weak surface
troughing develops over the mid-Atlantic ahead of the
approaching shortwave. Surface flow veers southerly, opening the
door for increasing low-level moisture advection overnight.
Consequently, lows will return to more normal levels as Tds
steadily rise. Mins in the low 70s expected along the coast, mid
to upper 60s inland.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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As of 1500 Saturday...An attendant cold front will approach the
area Sunday with gradients tightening bringing increasing WAA
in SW flow allowing temps to warm into the low to mid 90s inland
and mid to upper 80s along the coast. Heat indices will top out
in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints dropping into the low to
mid 60s inland coinciding with warmest temps. Dewpoints along
the coast will be in the upper 60s to around 70 but temps will
be a few degrees cooler leading to similar heat indices as
inland areas. Rain chances will be minimal on Sunday with broad
subsidence and warm temps aloft limiting CAPE across the region
but some iso showers working from W to E ahead of the
approaching front Sunday evening cannot be ruled out.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 3 PM Saturday...Storm chances increase Sunday night
through Tuesday with seasonably warm temps as a weak cold front
pushes through and upper troughing develops over the eastern
CONUS. Upper ridging build in Wednesday and Thursday bringing
drier conditions and a warming trend. An upper trough pushes
across the Mid-Atlantic late in the week but uncertainty remains
with how much Gulf moisture the system will be able to tap
into.

Sunday Evening through Tuesday night...Near zonal flow aloft
across ENC on Sunday but an upper low will track north of the
Great Lakes and across southern Canada with an upper trough
developing across the Eastern CONUS early to mid next week.

Precip chances increase Sunday evening as jet dynamics improve
with upper trough digging into the Mid-Atlantic and the cold
front pushes across the region. Guidance is showing scattered
coverage and will keep PoPs in the Chc-LKLY range Sunday night.
A positively tilted upper trough will dig across the Eastern
CONUS Monday into Tuesday with embedded shortwave energy moving
trough the flow aloft providing opportunities for additional
showers and storms. Timing of the individual waves remains
uncertain and generally followed NBM guidance for PoPs early
next week. Temps will be several degrees cooler on Monday with
highs in the mid 80s and low to mid 80s Tuesday. In addition, a
much drier airmass will build in with dewpoints dropping in to
the mid 50s across the coastal plain and low to mid 60s along
the coast making for comfortable temps.

Wednesday through Friday...The upper trough axis pushes offshore
Wednesday with shortwave ridging building in with mid level
flow becoming zonal on Thursday. Precip chances will be lower
but cannot rule out isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours along the
sea breeze as it pushes inland. A northern stream shortwave
pushes across the Mid-West and into the Mid-Atlantic late in the
week while and area of low pressure is progged to develop in
the Gulf of Mexico. There is significant uncertainty whether the
northern stream system will be able to tap into the Gulf
moisture and advect it across the Southeast coast or whether
upper ridging over the western Atlantic will shunt the moisture
to our south and west. A warming trend is expected late week
with highs in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday with
lower 90s expected as we end the week.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through 18z Sun/...
As of 1300 Saturday...VFR flight cats through the period as
weak high pressure continues to build over the Carolinas. Very
little diurnal cu expected today with dry low levels in place,
but cirri coverage will slowly increase through the day as
shortwave trough approaches from the northwest late tonight.
Wind fields today will be dominated by local sea and sound
breeze circulations, remaining at 5 kt or less through the day.
Southerly return flow commences overnight as surface trough
sharpens over the mid- Atlantic, but think increased cloud cover
will keep fog threat at bay. Next best chance for subVFR comes
Sunday night (after the end of this TAF cycle) when shower/storm
chances increase due to approaching cold front that will pass
overnight Sun into Mon.

LONG TERM /Late Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
Sunday with weak high pressure building in. Scattered showers
and storms may impact the sites Sunday night into Monday, which
may bring brief periods of sub-VFR. Brief periods of sub-VFR Mon
night into Tue with sct showers and storms. Mainly VFR expected
Wednesday as high pressure builds in.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 1500 Saturday...Quiet marine conditions expected today
as high pressure weakly builds in behind the departing cold
front. Wind fields today will be dominated by sound and sea
breeze circulations, but speeds will stay below 15 kt. By
tonight, sharpening surface trough over the mid-Atlantic will
cause winds to veer south to southwesterly overnight at around
10-15 kt. Seas through the period will remain at 2-4 feet.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...Moderate to breezy SW flow returns Sunday
ahead of another cold front. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt
by Sunday evening, with the front moving through Sunday night
into early Monday morning. A brief period of SCA conditions will
be possible with potential for a few hours of 25 kt gusts, but
have opted not to go with an SCA just yet. With how marginal the
gusts are, I want to give the midnight shift one more chance to
look at another rd of HiRes guidance before issuing anything.
Seas 2-3 ft Sunday building to 2-5 ft Sunday evening. Winds
diminish Monday but another front and low pressure area may
impact the waters Monday night into Tuesday, though given the
spread in the guidance and little run to run consistency,
confidence remains low through mid week.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/CEB
MARINE...SK/CEB