-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
663
FXUS62 KMHX 081704
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
104 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build in behind a departing cold front
this morning. Another front will move through Sunday night into
early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 0945 Saturday...Bumped Tds down for OBX for the next few
hours (while Nerly flow persists). Rest of the forecast on
track.

Previous Disco...As of 700 AM Sat...Primarily zonal flow in
place over the Carolinas this morning, in between a sub-tropical
high centered over the western Gulf of Mexico and elongated
mid- level low meandering over southeastern Canada. Shortwave
energy is pushing offshore now per RAP analysis with the surface
cold front following suit, allowing weak high pressure to build
in from the west.

Very quiet start to the weekend expected as the surface high
continues to gradually build overhead. Sunny skies prevail to
start, but a quick moving shortwave currently over the central
plains will bring a gradual increase in mid and high level
clouds late. Winds remain light, generally at 5 kt or less with
sea and sound breeze circulations quickly becoming dominant this
afternoon. Despite the passage of the front, highs will not be
much different than yesterday with a few 90-degree readings
probable especially for areas south and west of Highway 70.
Still, with Tds falling into the low to mid 50s it will be less
muggy than normal for early June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 320 AM Sat...High pressure will begin to weaken overnight
as weak surface troughing develops over the mid-Atlantic ahead
of the approaching shortwave. Surface flow veers southerly,
opening the door for increasing low-level moisture advection
overnight. Consequently, lows will return to more normal levels
as Tds steadily rise. Mins in the low 70s expected along the
coast, mid to upper 60s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 430 AM Saturday...Hot and dry on Sunday but storm chances
increase Sunday night through Tuesday with seasonably warm temps
as a weak cold front pushes through and upper troughing develops
over the eastern CONUS. Upper ridging build in Wednesday and
Thursday bringing drier conditions and a warming trend. An
upper trough pushes across the Mid-Atlantic late in the week but
uncertainty remains with how much Gulf moisture the system will
be able to tap into.

Sunday through Tuesday night...Near zonal flow aloft across ENC
on Sunday but an upper low will track north of the Great Lakes
and across southern Canada with an upper trough developing
across the Eastern CONUS early to mid next week.

An attendant cold front will approach the area Sunday with
gradients tightening bringing increasing WAA in SW flow
allowing temps to warm into the low to mid 90s inland and mid to
upper 80s along the coast. Heat indices will top out in the mid
to upper 90s with dewpoints dropping into the low to mid 60s
inland coinciding with warmest temps. Dewpoints along the coast
will be in the upper 60s to around 70 but temps will be a few
degrees cooler leading to similar heat indices as inland areas.
Rain chances will be minimal on Sunday with broad subsidence
and warm temps aloft limiting CAPE across the region.

Precip chances increase Sunday evening as jet dynamics improve
with upper trough digging into the Mid-Atlantic and the cold
front pushes across the region. Guidance is showing scattered
coverage and will keep PoPs in the chance range Sunday night.
A positively tilted upper trough will dig across the Eastern
CONUS Monday into Tuesday with embedded shortwave energy moving
trough the flow aloft providing opportunities for additional
showers and storms. Timing of the individual waves remains
uncertain and generally followed NBM guidance for PoPs early
next week. Temps will be several degrees cooler on Monday with
highs in the mid 80s and low to mid 80s Tuesday. In addition, a
much drier airmass will build in with dewpoints dropping in to
the mid 50s across the coastal plain and low to mid 60s along
the coast making for comfortable temps.

Wednesday through Friday...The upper trough axis pushes offshore
Wednesday with shortwave ridging building in with mid level
flow becoming zonal on Thursday. Precip chances will be lower
but cannot rule out isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours along the
sea breeze as it pushes inland. A northern stream shortwave
pushes across the Mid-West and into the Mid-Atlantic late in the
week while and area of low pressure is progged to develop in
the Gulf of Mexico. There is significant uncertainty whether the
northern stream system will be able to tap into the Gulf
moisture and advect it across the Southeast coast or whether
upper ridging over the western Atlantic will shunt the moisture
to our south and west. A warming trend is expected late week
with highs in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday with
lower 90s expected as we end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through 18z Sun/...
As of 1300 Saturday...VFR flight cats through the period as
weak high pressure continues to build over the Carolinas. Very
little diurnal cu expected today with dry low levels in place,
but cirri coverage will slowly increase through the day as
shortwave trough approaches from the northwest late tonight.
Wind fields today will be dominated by local sea and sound
breeze circulations, remaining at 5 kt or less through the day.
Southerly return flow commences overnight as surface trough
sharpens over the mid- Atlantic, but think increased cloud cover
will keep fog threat at bay.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 5 AM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
Sunday with weak high pressure building in. Scattered showers
and storms may impact the sites Sunday night into Monday, which
may bring brief periods of sub-VFR. Brief periods of sub-VFR
Mon night into Tue with sct showers and storms. Mainly VFR
expected Wednesday as high pressure builds in.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Cold front is continuing to advance across
area waters this morning, with a few isolated instances of gusts
exceeding 20 kt, especially in areas susceptible to funneling in
north to northwesterly flow. Most buoys and mesonet sites are
showing winds staying under 20 kt. Offshore, seas are a benign
2-4 feet.

Quiet marine conditions expected today as high pressure weakly
builds in behind the departing cold front. Wind fields today
will be dominated by sound and sea breeze circulations, but
speeds will stay below 15 kt. By tonight, sharpening surface
trough over the mid-Atlantic will cause winds to veer south to
southwesterly overnight at around 10-15 kt. Seas through the
period will remain at 2-4 feet.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 510 AM Saturday...Moderate to breezy SW flow returns
Sunday ahead of another cold front. SW winds will increase to
15-20 kt by Sunday evening, with the front moving through Sunday
night into early Monday morning. A brief period of SCA
conditions will be possible with potential for a few hours of 25
kt gusts. Seas 2-3 ft Sunday building to 2-5 ft Sunday evening.
Winds diminish Monday but another front and low pressure area
may impact the waters Monday night into Tuesday, though given
the spread in the guidance and little run to run consistency,
confidence remains low through mid week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/CEB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/CEB
MARINE...SK/MS