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863
FXUS61 KPBZ 061617
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1217 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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An unsettled weather pattern is expected the remainder of the
week and through the weekend under a persistent upper trough,
resulting in periodic chances of isolated to scattered showers.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Isolated to scattered showers this afternoon / early evening.
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A surface trough crossing the Upper Ohio Valley region will
result in isolated to scattered showers this afternoon and early
evening. Cold advection in the mid levels will steepen lapse
rates and create some instability, however, capping between
700mb and 500mb will mitigate any thunder/lightning as updrafts
will not be tall enough for ice.

Highs should top out several degrees above normal for the
first week of June.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Persistent upper trough maintains an unsettled pattern
- Cooler temperatures expected

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Isolated evening showers will end tonight as the trough
exits east. An upper low will drift across southeastern Canada
and the Great Lakes region Friday through Saturday night.
Individual shortwaves rotating around the low will keep an
unsettled pattern across the Upper Ohio Valley region through
the remainder of the period.

A diurnal trend to the cloud cover is expected, with low
convective temperatures in place and cool air aloft. One of
these shortwaves is expected to cross the Upper Ohio Valley
region on Friday, with isolated to scattered showers. Another
is expected for Saturday, though the best upper support for any
showers is expected to be mainly north of PGH.

A stronger shortwave rotating around the low is expected to
cross the region Saturday night, with scattered showers across
much of the area. Temperatures are generally expected to average
around 5 degrees below seasonable levels through the period.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Unsettled pattern through mid week under a series of upper
  troughs
- Cool temperatures to start should warm next week

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Shortwave troughs rotating around the upper low, mentioned in
the short term section of the discussion, will maintain
scattered showers on Sunday and Monday, though much of the time
in any one location will be dry.

Mainly dry weather is expected on Tuesday as the upper low exits
the New England coast, and ridging briefly builds in. A
shortwave trough is expected to advance eastward from the Plains
region Tuesday night, crossing the Upper Ohio Valley region on
Wednesday. Scattered showers are expected with the approach and
passage of the trough.

Temperatures should start out a few degrees below average
Sunday and Monday, before returning to near, or above average
readings by mid week.
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&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A trough and an associated cold front exit the region this
morning, with showers tapering off from W-E. Ceilings start the
TAF period at a mix of IFR and MVFR, with gradual improvement
to VFR expected through the mid morning hours in the wake of the
frontal passage. The exception may be FKL and DUJ, which will
likely not see improvement until the afternoon. Steep low-level
lapse rates should promote wind gusts in the 20 to 25 knot
range by midday areawide, with some modest instability creating
isolated showers as well, particularly near and north/northeast
of PIT.

.Outlook...
Periodic restrictions and scattered showers are expected
through Sunday as a slow moving upper low persists across the
Great Lakes region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...WM/88
LONG TERM...WM/88
AVIATION...Cermak/22/CL