-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
573
FXUS63 KSGF 221740
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1240 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend ahead through the weekend with highs in the 90s.
  Humidity on the increase with heat index values around 100 to
  105 by late weekend into early next week.

- Weak frontal passage featuring scattered shower and
  thunderstorm chances (20 to 40%) Saturday night into Sunday
  morning. Highest chances across central Missouri.

- Scattered thunderstorm chances on Tuesday afternoon into
  Wednesday, with highest chances (40 to 60%) late Tuesday
  night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Today: An upper ridge holds across the Tennessee Valley today
with a gradual trend upwards in temperatures and humidity. As
southwest winds increase into the afternoon, high temperatures
reach into the lower 90s across much of the area. HREF
probabilities of greater than 90 degrees are around 50 to 80%
across the area this afternoon, with lowest probabilities along
the spine of the Ozark Plateau. Meanwhile, a small increase in
dewpoints into the upper 60s supports heat indices reaching into
the middle to upper 90s. Experimental HeatRisk depicts Moderate
(level 2 of 4) heat impacts across the area today.

Tonight: A subtle shortwave translates across the central CONUS
late tonight into early Sunday morning, supporting scattered
shower and thunderstorm chances (20 to 40%). Hi-res guidance
highlight this activity spreading across portions of the area
around midnight and after. Given the lack of quality moisture
return and weak forcing, the extent of coverage is expected to
remain limited. The highest chances are focused across portions
of central Missouri and east through sunrise Sunday morning.
Brief heavy downpours and lightning will be the main hazards,
though many locations likely remain completely dry with the
passage of this system.

Sunday: Behind this system, height rises build over the region
with an additional increase in hot and humid conditions. Another
afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and heat indicies in the
middle to upper 90s is in the forecast for Sunday. overnight
lows provide minimal relief from the heat with lows in the lower
to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Monday-Tuesday: Hot and humid conditions worsen into early next
week as the ridge becomes centered over the area. Highs on
Monday and Tuesday climb well into the middle to upper 90s
areawide (5 to 10 degrees above normal). This will be
accompanied by dewpoints in the lower 70s, supporting heat
indicies around 100 to 105. NWS HeatRisk depicts widespread
Major (level 3 of 4) heat impacts, with localized areas of
Extreme (level 4 of 4). Given the small spread in the
temperature forecast, confidence is high that heat headlines
will be needed early next week. Minimal overnight relief is
expected as lows only fall into the middle to upper 70s. Be
sure to take any necessary preparations for dealing with this
heat, and be sure to check in on elderly and vulnerable
neighbors and family. Some effective ways to practice heat
safety include using air conditioning and staying in the shade,
drinking plenty of water, even if not thirsty, wearing light,
loose-fitting clothing, and to take frequent breaks if working
outside.

The focus then turns to a break in the pattern through Tuesday
afternoon/evening as the upper-level ridge shifts across the
Southern Plains. This will allow northwest flow to setup over
the area with associated shower and thunderstorm chances.
Ensemble guidance depicts scattered chances (20 to 40%) by
Tuesday afternoon into the evening, with the highest chances (40
to 60%) late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Similar to
weekend rain chances, the highest potential is focused across
portions of central into south central Missouri at this time.
Likewise, heavy downpours and lightning will be the primary
hazards.

Wednesday-Friday: Low rain chances (20-40%) linger across the
area on Wednesday with highs returning to near normal for late
June in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

By late next week, an upper-level ridge begins to build back
into the Middle Mississippi Valley. This supports a return of
hot and humid conditions into late week and next weekend.
Additionally, rain chances become suppressed further north
along the top of the ridge. Highs in the 90s and heat indicies
returning into the upper 90s to around 103 are in the later part
of the forecast. CPC highlights high confidence (60 to 70%
chances) in above normal temperatures through late June into the
first week of July.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Despite medium-high confidence in VFR conditions remaining
through the TAF period, there are some low-end chances of
impactful weather over the TAF sites. A weak fropa is forecast
between 05-12Z. Ahead of the frontal passage, low-level wind
shear will increase to around 35 kts. A 10-20% chance of an
isolated shower or thunderstorm also exists during this
timeframe, though the confidence of one imacting a TAF site
directly is very low.

Additionally, SW`ly winds will be gusty through 02Z at 10-20
kts with gusts up to 20-30 kts, especially at JLN. These winds
will diminish after sunset (02Z) and slowly pivot to NW`ly by
the end of the TAF period.

Lastly, a broken blanket of mid-level clouds is currently
hanging over JLN. These are expected to dissipate by 21Z leaving
a cumulus field at 5 kft through 02Z and otherwise SCT high
clouds.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024


Record High Temperatures:

June 22:
KSGF: 96/2016
KJLN: 98/2016

June 23:
KJLN: 98/2009

June 24:
KSGF: 99/1988
KJLN: 100/1954
KVIH: 99/1901
KUNO: 100/1952

June 25:
KSGF: 99/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 23:
KSGF: 77/2015

June 24:
KSGF: 77/1934

June 25:
KSGF: 76/1952

June 26:
KSGF: 76/1937

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Price
CLIMATE...Kenny