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263
FXUS61 KALY 131734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
134 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer temperatures return today with dry conditions
anticipated as high pressure dominates the region. Shower and
thunderstorm chances increase heading into tonight ahead of an upper-
level disturbance and cold front that will track through the region
tomorrow. Additional showers and thunderstorms, some potentially
becoming severe, are anticipated across much of the region tomorrow
along and ahead of the front. Dry, seasonable weather then returns
for the weekend before Summer-like heat can be expected early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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.Update...As of 1:35 PM EDT...Overall, previous forecast remains
on track with just minor updates. Temperatures have risen well
into the 70s to around 80 at this time, and skies remain partly
to mostly clear. Expecting this afternoon to remain mostly dry,
except for a few late afternoon/evening showers or an isolated
thunderstorm in the ADKs. Elsewhere, clouds should begin to
increase in coverage this evening. Please see previous
discussion below for more details...

.Previous...A slow, northwest to southeast increase in cloud
coverage is expected beginning this afternoon as an upper
disturbance nears the Great Lakes. That said, the persistence of
weak ridging aloft paired with the surface anticyclone
remaining within reach will keep clouds largely at bay until
then to yield a mainly clear day. And, with 850mb temperatures
increasing to near +15 C, warm conditions will return to eastern
New York and western New England. High temperatures will reach
the mid/upper 70s to mid 80s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
By this evening, broad troughing will be sinking south and east
into the Great Lakes region as a surface low tracks through
southeast Ontario towards the Quebec border. Slight
amplification of this initial, pre-frontal trough will occur as
the surface low deepens along its northeasterly track further
towards central Quebec. Clouds will, therefore, continue to
slowly follow an increasing trend from northwest to southeast as
the mid/upper trough tracks into the eastern Great Lakes later
this evening and into tonight. The further backing of flow aloft
to the southwest will promote moisture advection into a modest
divergence zone as a mid/upper jet max develops at the base of
the pre-frontal trough. As such, showers and possibly some
embedded rumbles of thunder (mainly in the Southwest
Adirondacks) will develop beginning tonight north and west of
Albany as this initial disturbance swiftly swings through near
the International border.

By Friday morning, the main mid/upper-level trough will have
begun to dig further south and east into the Ohio Valley, taking
on more of a positive tilt to its initial neutral structure. The
aforementioned, strengthening surface low will be positioned
well to our north, extending a cold front south and west through
western New York into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Weaker, though still divergent flow will become situated across
the region fueled with plenty of warm, moist air from the
continuous southwesterly flow regime to promote a continuation
of and additional development of showers and thunderstorms along
and ahead of the cold front throughout the day.

At this point, confidence is increasing in the likelihood of
widespread showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold
front throughout the day Friday. Additionally, confidence is
increasing in the possibility of some thunderstorms becoming
severe specifically in portions of the Eastern Catskills, Mid-
Hudson Valley and western New England. However, the convective
forecast for Friday still retains some level of uncertainty at
this time. Over the past few days, guidance has sped up the
timing of the fropa likely due to the intensification of the
southeast Canada high building in directly in its wake and the
lack of interaction with the high pressure currently in place
across the region which could have allowed it to stall a bit or
at least take a slower northwest to southeast track. That said,
the front looks to clear our CWA by late Friday afternoon/early
Friday evening. Therefore, there could be a limit to the amount
of instability realized across areas favored for stronger to
potentially severe convection (Eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson
Valley, western New England).

Latest CAMs indicate SBCAPE from the Capital District south and
east at about 500-1000 J/kg with pockets up to 1500 J/kg within
the aforementioned favored areas. This is due to likely breaks
of sun paired with increasing moisture ahead of the fropa
(dewpoints increasing to the low to mid 60s). 0-6 km shear looks
to increase to about 30-40 kt with marginal mid-level lapse
rates and relatively steep low-level lapse rates in the Mid-
Hudson Valley and western New England. Thermal profiles also
indicate DCAPE around 500 J/kg with 0-6km mean wind in excess of
15 kt, so the greatest threat posed by severe convection will
likely be strong to potentially damaging wind gusts, though
small to potentially severe hail (1" in diameter) cannot be
ruled out. For these reasons, the Storm Prediction Center has
maintained the Slight Risk for severe weather for portions of
the Eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley and western New England
with a Marginal Risk for much of the remainder of the area. In
addition to strong to damaging wind gusts, stronger forcing
paired with high PWATs (1.5" - 1.6") will likely lead to heavy
downpours especially with stronger thunderstorms. Therefore,
have included the mention for heavy rain within the weather
forecast. Due to relatively dry antecedent conditions, flash
flooding is not a concern at this time. However, ponding of
water in low-lying, urban, and poor drainage areas is possible.

Showers and thunderstorms will taper off relatively quickly upon
the loss of daytime heating Friday evening/night, especially
with the swift influx of dry air due to the building high to
the northwest. Tranquil weather will then be reinforced across
the region beginning Friday night through Saturday. High
temperatures Friday will be fairly variable due to the cold
frontal passage, with upper 60s to low 70s at higher elevations
and mid/upper 70s to low 80s elsewhere. With a little bit cooler
airmass in place after the passage of the front, Saturday`s
highs will range from the low to mid 70s with pockets of 60s at
higher elevations and upper 70s in the Mid-Hudson Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper ridging steadily builds into the region from the west and
amplifies as it builds into our region. A weak upper impulse is
expected to track along or just north of the U.S./Canada border some
time between Monday night and Tuesday night. There are disagreements
with the timing of this upper impulse, that would potentially bring
an isolated shower or thunderstorm to the southern Adirondacks as a
weakening wind shift boundary drops south.

Once that upper impulse exits, upper ridging will amplify and there
is increasing confidence in potentially dangerous levels of heat
setting up in our area. Trends will be watched closely. Any wind
shift boundary will just become a thermal surface trough once the
hot airmass settles over our region. The upper ridging should
provide enough of a midlevel cap to prevent any thunderstorm
activity outside of an isolated storm perhaps from a Lake Ontario
breeze boundary tracking into the southern Adirondacks.

Highs Sunday in the mid 70s to near 80 with around 70 higher
terrain. Highs Monday in the lower to mid 80s with around 80 higher
terrain. Tuesday and Wednesday have the best chances for the
dangerous heat and humidity, with highs in the lower to mid 90s,
that will feel like around 100 in some areas. Highs in the upper 80s
in higher terrain both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Through 18z/Fri...VFR conditions will remain in place into this
evening with some fair weather cumulus and high cirrus around. A
cold front will slowly approach the region overnight into Friday
morning. A few rain showers may develop ahead of the front prior to
daybreak near KALB/KGFL and near or after daybreak at KPSF.
Cigs/vsbys may remain in the VFR range within these showers. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop between 16-18z/Fri, mainly
affecting KALB/KPSF/KPOU. With the timing of these showers closer to
the end of the current TAF period, will refer to later TAF issuances
for further details.

Wind will be south to southwesterly at around 10 kt this afternoon
into this evening before decreasing to less than 10 kt tonight into
Friday morning (except remaining around 10 kt at KALB).

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant/Main
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Rathbun