Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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054 FXUS61 KCAR 242257 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 657 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will cross over the waters tonight. High pressure will return on Tuesday. A warm front will cross the region Tuesday night. A cold front will approach Wednesday, then cross the region Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will cross the region Friday into Saturday. A cold front will approach later Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Update... Made minor adjustments to pops based on current conditions. Not seeing much in the way of lightning in our area, thus trimmed back mention of thunder to only include extreme western areas. previous discussion Sfc low continues to sit and spin over the Downeast coast. Low clouds are very slowly clearing acrs the north and will likely continue to do so this evening as lopres sinks south over the waters. Expecting skies to clear over the north right around daybreak with patchy fog developing as winds become light and variable. Light stratiform rain over the north, though honestly hard to believe much is reaching the ground, will continue to sink south this evening. Further to the south convective showers have developed along boundary over interior Downeast and will continue to pivot over this area remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening hours. Have included isolated thunder with locally heavy rainfall in areas that continue to receive rainfall but overall threat for this is very low. Temps will remain above normal mins for tonight, although the North Woods may be able to drop into the upper 40s depending on timing of clearing skies. Most of the western zones will see sunny skies at daybreak tomorrow while southeastern areas will see showers initially before clearing by noon. High temps over the area likely to top out in the lwr 80s though the shore will only rise to around 70 degrees.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface/upper level ridging begin to exit across the Maritimes Tuesday night while a warm front lifts across the region. Expect mostly clear skies early, then partly cloudy. A cold front begins to approach later Wednesday. Expect partly sunny skies along with a slight chance of showers across northern areas early Wednesday, with mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon. Across Downeast areas, expect partly sunny skies Tuesday along with a slight chance/chance of afternoon showers. The cold front will cross the region Wednesday night into Thursday while low pressure forms and moves along the front. Expect increasing rain chances Wednesday night, with rain then persisting into early Thursday. Rain tapers to showers later Thursday. Will also include a slight chance of thunder Wednesday night into Thursday. Expect above normal level temperatures Wednesday. Slightly below normal level temperatures are expected Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure builds toward the region Thursday night with mostly clear skies. High pressure crosses the region Friday, starting to exit across the Maritimes later Friday night. Expect mostly clear skies Friday, then partly cloudy Friday night. High pressure exits across the Maritimes Saturday, with a cold front approaching Saturday night though timing differences with the front still exist. Expect partly cloudy skies early Saturday, with clouds then increasing during the afternoon. Dependent on the eventual timing of the front, could also have a slight chance/chance of showers across mostly western portions of the forecast area during the afternoon along with the slight chance of a thunderstorm. The cold front will cross the region Saturday night into Sunday with a chance of showers/thunderstorms. High pressure will build toward the region Sunday night, then build across the region Monday. Expect near normal level temperatures Friday through Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Variable conditions this afternoon over northern Aroostook terminals as low cigs begin to scatter out, leaving conditions mostly at VFR. Expect fog to develop at PQI, CAR and FVE between 07-11z Tuesday. HUL and Downeast terminals likely to see showers with VFR/MVFR cigs until this evening when cigs and vsbys drop to IFR. Improvement expected shortly after sunrise at southern terminals. SHORT TERM: Tuesday night...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south. Wednesday...VFR early. VFR/MVFR late with a chance of showers/slight chance of thunderstorms. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR early, then IFR/LIFR. Rain with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable. Thursday...IFR/LIFR early, then VFR/MVFR. Rain with a slight chance of thunderstorms early. Decreasing shower chances during the afternoon. Variable winds around 10 knots, becoming northwest. Thursday night through Friday night...VFR. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots Thursday night. Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming variable Friday. South winds 5 to 10 knots Friday night. Saturday...VFR early, VFR/MVFR late with a chance of showers along with a slight chance of thunderstorms. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Seas will likely remain elevated over the outer waters tonight into Tuesday afternoon. Expect seas to diminish below 5 feet over zone 51 but remain aoa 5 feet over zone 50. Northerly wind gusts expected to remain below 20kts through the tomorrow. Visibilities will be reduced in fog tonight. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Tuesday night into Wednesday. Small craft advisory conditions then possible later Wednesday into Thursday. A chance of showers Wednesday afternoon. Rain with a slight chances of thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...TWD/Buster Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...TWD/Buster/Norcross Marine...TWD/Buster/Norcross