-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
523
FXUS61 KCAR 220409
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1209 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach tonight and Saturday and drag a warm
front into the region Sunday. A cold front will cross the area
Monday followed by high pressure building into the region
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
12:05 AM Update...The sky is mostly cloudy across the area with
partial cloudiness over the far north. A band of showers
persists near the coast along a frontal boundary. Adjusted pops
and cloud cover to reflect latest obs. Lowered temps over the
north where a clear sky has allowed more cooling.

Previous discussion...
A weak boundary is moving from northwest to southeast across the
area this afternoon. With dew point depressions in excess of 20
degrees, very little precipitation is reaching the ground
despite echoes on radar. Did put isolated showers in the
forecast from the Central Highlands to Southeast Aroostook
before sunset as a couple of places have reported very light
rain showers. Any showers come to an end by sunset as the
boundary washes out.

Tonight and Saturday, a warm front will slowly approach from the
southwest. This front will remain south of the area through
Saturday. However, it will come close enough to bring the threat
of showers south of around Greenville late tonight. The shower
threat will extend northward through the Central Highlands area
and Southeast Aroostook on Saturday. Enough confidence for
likely PoPs south and west of Bangor, with a period of steadier
rain possible. Some patchy fog will be possible at the Downeast
Coast. Further north, high pressure will keep the Crown of Maine
dry.

Given clouds and rain showers, high temperatures will be coolest
in the Bangor region and Downeast. Expect upper 60s to lower 70s
there on Saturday. Highs will be warmer further north where
there will be at least partial sunshine. Temperatures are
expected to approach 80 degrees in the Saint John Valley, with
mid to upper 70s in the rest of the North.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface warm front will set up over the waters Saturday evening.
Breaks during the overnight hours will likely be determined by hard
to time s/waves moving through in the zonal flow. Chc pops likely
through about midnight before overrunning sets in north of boundary
after this time where steadier rain develops mainly from Baxter and
points south into Downeast through daybreak. Min temps will drop to
just below 60F across the area under extensive cloud cover and rain.

Warm front will begin to press to the north as sfc low deepens back
to the west near Lake Huron. As to whether it can shift into the CWA
still remains in question with GFS/EC lifting it into nrn zones by
18z Sunday, leaving Downeast areas in the warm sector late
afternoon/early evening. Have introduced slight chc thunder after
21z with elevated instability. As to whether storms can become
surface-based still remains in question. If surface-based storms can
get going, 0-6km shear of near 60kts will pose a threat for svr
storms in the afternoon to the north of the marine layer however
confidence is very low at this point. To the north of the warm front
locally heavy rainfall is expected in the afternoon with
anomalously high pw values of 1.6-1.8 inches. All signs are
pointing to torrential downpours in the afternoon and evening
hours with warm cloud depths > 10kft and very small Corfidi
vectors. Temperatures will likely top out around 70F acrs the
area. Diurnal temp range between Sunday afternoon and Sunday
night will only be around 10 degrees.

May see dry slot move into the area Sunday night with only scattered
showers expected before sfc low approaches. H5 low will be dropping
out of Canada during the afternoon and with colder temps aloft may
see convection refire in the afternoon on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
By late Monday night H5 low will be exiting into ern Canada with
showers not winding down until Tuesday afternoon. Upr level ridging
occurs briefly Tuesday night before flow flattens out on Wednesday.
Another round of showers ahead of the next cold front approaches on
Wednesday afternoon. Timing of cold front will determine potential
for thunder and with very little confidence on location, have not
added in storms at this point.

High pressure builds in behind fropa with sunny skies expected at
the end of the week. Temps will warm into the 80s Tuesday and
Wednesday before falling back toward more normal values following
fropa.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR conditions at all terminals through
tonight. MVFR expected starting Saturday morning from BGR
southward with low clouds and SHRA. IFR possible at Coastal
terminals with BCFG. W-NW winds 5-15 kts through 01-03z Light
and variable winds later tonight, becoming S 5-10 kts on
Saturday.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday night-Monday...MVFR/IFR conditions expected in rain,
possibly heavy at times, and fog. SSE 5-10kts into Sunday,
becoming ENE northern terminals 5-10kts, S 5-10kts Downeast
terminals.

Monday night...Improving to VFR. N 5-10kts.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Mainly VFR. N 5kts Tuesday, becoming S
5-10kts Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through tonight and Saturday. Wave heights will be 1 to
2 feet through Saturday. Visibility could be reduced on the
waters by patchy fog on Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft levels
through the day Sunday. Winds become marginal Sunday night but
likely to remain below 25kts under stable layer. Seas begin to
build above 5ft late Sunday night in southerly swell through
Tuesday. Seas drop below SCA levels through the middle of the
week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Clark/MCW/MCB
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...Clark/MCW/Buster
Marine...Clark/MCW/Buster