-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
892
FXUS62 KMHX 272246
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
646 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move offshore and stall just south of
the area tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north
Friday into Saturday with another front approaching late Sunday
through Monday. High pressure once again builds over the area
from the north on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 650 PM Thursday...A cold front is currently located
across the northern tier roughly stretching from Kenansville to
Oregon Inlet. Showers and isolated storms ongoing early this
evening ahead of the front, with deeper convection now offshore.
Lingering shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to end
by midnight as the front sags southward and drier northerly flow
develops across the area. Cannot rule out patchy fog
development late with moist low levels but ensemble guidance
probs remain quite low, generally less than 20% chance. Lows are
projected to be in the low to mid 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 4 PM Thu...The cold front will stall offshore Friday with
high pressure ridging in from the north bringing easterly flow
and somewhat cooler temps across the area with highs in the
lower 90s away from the coast and mid to upper 80s along the
coast. It will remain quite moist with PW values around 1.75" to
near 2" and could see isolated to scattered storms develop in
the afternoon with CAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg but shear
will be minimal and storms should remain below severe criteria.
The best chance for convection will occur along the southern
sections along the sea breeze as it migrates inland.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thurs...Once again the heat and humidity will be
the main story in the long term to start as high pressure
ridging builds overhead this weekend. Heat related impacts will
be a threat most afternoons through Sunday, with the most
oppressive heat potential both Saturday and Sunday. Scattered
diurnal activity is expected through Sunday, with better
chances for precip arriving Sunday night and into Monday as
another front moves in. Expecting dry conditions from Tuesday
into the end of the period.

Saturday through Monday... The heat and humidity return in full
force this weekend as high pressure ridging restrengthens over
the area. High temps will generally range from the upper 80s
along the immediate coast and OBX to the mid to upper 90s across
the Coastal Plain. Combined with the high humidity across ENC
heat indices will reach 100 to potentially 110 this weekend.
With lows only getting down into the 70s each night, there will
not be much relief overnight either resulting in an increased
threat for excessive heat.

Otherwise diurnally driven showers and storms will be possible
on Sat with increased precip chances on Sunday afternoon through
Monday with the approach of a cold front. This cold front will
track across the region on Monday with the precip threat
gradually ending from northwest to southeast Mon night. Given
the forecasted cloudcover and precip chances on Mon temps will
also be lower with Highs only getting into the 80s.

Tuesday through midweek...Behind this front next week the heat and
humidity looks to break finally with dry conditions and near normal
temps expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 650 PM Thu...A weak cold front will continue to slowly
push across terminals this evening, with ongoing showers and
isolated storms. A few showers and storms may continue into the
evening hours will be weaker with deeper convection now
offshore. Generally dry conditions expected by late tonight.
Could see patchy fog develop late tonight with light/calm winds
and moist low levels but HREF ensemble props for sub-VFR
conditions remains low at less than 20% for most areas. Did
include mention in the TAFs, with potential for brief periods of
sub-VFR. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be
possible Friday afternoon with best chances across southern
rtes.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Thurs... Diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm
activity is forecast across ENC on Fri and Sat with some periods
of sub-VFR conditions possible each afternoon and evening.
Another cold front will arrive late Sun and bring an increased
chance of sub- VFR conditions through Monday before VFR
conditions potentially return on Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 650 PM Thu...A line of prefrontal showers and storms
continues to push offshore early this evening, with deeper
convection now over the Gulf Stream. A weak cold front will
push through the waters overnight with high pressure building in
from the north on Friday. Latest obs show variable winds N-SW
5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Winds are expected to be around 10 kt
or less becoming NE late tonight, becoming easterly around 10-20
kt on Friday. Seas will be around 2-4 ft

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Thurs... Decent boating conditions forecast
through Sat before a cold front tracks across our waters Sun
night into Monday bringing widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity as well as elevated winds and seas.

As a ridge of high pressure gradually builds in from the north on
Fri, northeast to easterly winds at 5-15 kts and 2 to 4 ft seas
will persist across our waters into Fri night. As high pressure
ridging gradually slides offshore winds will turn to a SE`rly
direction on Sat. Winds will continue to gradually turn Sat
night into Sun to a SW`rly direction while also increasing to
10-20 kts as a cold front approaches from the west bringing our
next threat for unsettled conditions across the waters Sun night
into Mon. Seas will remain around 2 to 4 ft through the rest of
the period, though would not be shocked to see some 5 ft seas
near the Gulf Stream waters Sun night into Mon as the front
track across the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RCF/RJ
AVIATION...CQD/SK/RCF
MARINE...CQD/SK/RCF