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256
FXUS61 KRNK 121744
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
144 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain its presence over the area into
Thursday. A backdoor front tracks south through the mid-Atlantic
Friday, before high pressure works in again for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 109 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Mix of sun and clouds this afternoon. A sprinkle possible in
the mountains.

2) Mainly dry but cannot rule out isolated mountain convection
Thu afternoon.

Expect a couple of weak impulses to keep some clouds around at
times through the day. 12z RNK sounding showed higher RH in the
850-700 mb range with a pwat of 0.77". Some of the high res
models are trying to pop up some showers along the ridges this
afternoon, but expecting little if any coverage. Added a token
sprinkle or light shower here and there but generally will be
dry and seasonably warm this afternoon.

Clouds will stay mixed across the sky into tonight and should be
a little milder, temperatures slipping into the mid 50s to lower
60s west to east. Could start to see patchy fog across river
bottoms toward dawn.

Another shortwave/vort tracks across Thursday. Enough low level
moisture should be available to trigger some isolated convection
along/west of the Blue Ridge, but appears only a couple of
high-res solutions are hinting at this. Given the heating and
environment, leaning toward a few showers/storms popping up but
majority of you will remain dry.

Temperatures start to warm a bit reaching the 80s for most of
the area, with some 70s in the higher mountains.

Forecast confidence is average on pops/sky cover, but above
average on temps/winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 115 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Warm and mostly dry weather expected.

Heights will build by the end of the week within an overall westerly
flow. A shortwave passing through the Great Lakes will push a front
south late Friday and will see slightly cooler temperatures again
Saturday.

Friday likely to feature plenty of low 90s across the Piedmont as
850mb temperatures range +18C to +20C ahead of an approaching front
dropping south out of the Ohio Valley. Not overly concerned with
high indices at this time owing to the fact that dew points will not
be particularly high. With plenty of daytime heating, should have at
least some marginal instability, resulting in a few scattered
afternoon thunderstorms, mainly across the mountains.

Slightly cooler air behind the front as high pressure builds to the
north on Saturday. However, still expecting highs in the mid/upper
80s.
-- End Changed Discussion --



&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Showers and storm chances increase through mid-week.

2) Hot and humid by mid-week


Ridging begins to build over the southeast late in the weekend into
early next week as high pressure slides offshore. Ridging will
continue to build into Tuesday/Wednesday. Guidance is in fairly
decent agreement of the 594dm ridge firmly anchoring in place
through the end of the long term period.

With high pressure east in the Atlantic, flow remains southerly and
should have higher moisture advection into the area as well. This
will drive dew points up, along with the chance of afternoon
thunderstorms.
-- End Changed Discussion --



&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Wednesday...

Mainly VFR expected through the period. Expect potential IFR fog
at LWB by 10-12z Thu.

Forecast confidence is high.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR anticipated through Sunday. Except could be some storms
Friday into Friday evening that may bring sub-VFR especially
north of a line from BKW-ROA-LYH.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...BMG
LONG TERM...BMG
AVIATION...SH/WP