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528
FXUS61 KRNK 112305
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
705 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will dominate the weather through the remainder
of the week, bringing dry weather to the region. Temperatures
trend warmer with upper 80s and 90s possible for highs
beginning Thursday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 700 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Fair Weather Wednesday.

High pressure centered to our north will gradually expand and
become the dominant weather feature for the Mid-Atlantic for the
remainder of the week. Increasing subsidence will maintain dry
conditions. However, there is a layer of shallow moisture
trapped underneath the subsidence inversion, so still expect
SCT-BKN cloud field attms in the form of cumulus and
stratocumulus.

Weak northerly wind flow will transition to weak easterly flow
tonight then come around to the south and southwest Wednesday.
Tonight`s shallow easterly wind may allow for pooling of
moisture underneath the subsidence inversion with clouds
persisting or even developing along the near the Blue Ridge
where upslope flow would act to enhance clouds there. In general
though, the weather is expected to remain fair through the near
term with pleasant temperatures. Low dewpoints are still
promoting good cooling at night with temperatures falling into
the 50s, and upper 40s across the mountains.

Slightly warmer temperatures are expected Wednesday as winds
become southwesterly and thicknesses begin to increase. It will
remain dry with high pressure in control...highs ranging from
the upper 70s in the mountains to the low/mid 80s in the lower
elevations.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Warming trend and mainly dry.

Forecast models trend toward a dry solution with heights/low level
temps increasing through Friday. A backdoor front tracking toward
the central Appalachians later Friday could bring a few
showers/storms toward our I-64 corridor, but trends are drier.

Friday could be the hottest day with compressional warming ahead of
the front, but if any convection upstream maintains itself, cloud
cover from it could keep temps a few degrees cooler, especially
north of US 460 while thinking is sunshine will be more plentiful
south.

Forecast confidence is above average on temps/sky/winds and average
on pops.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1145 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Summer Pattern Setting Up.

2) Fairly Dry But Afternoon/Evening Chances By Early Next Week For
Storms.

5h pattern this weekend shows a building ridge from the lower MS
Valley into the southeast and mid-Atlantic. Models seem in agreement
on this, but differ on extent of heat that occurs. At the surface
high pressure builds across the northeast and mid-Atlantic Sunday
and with a northeast to east flow will alleviate the heat somewhat.
Temperatures should run close to or just above normal this weekend.

Once the high shifts offshore early next week, models advertise
increasing moisture with a front tracking north of us Monday. There
are some model differences on 5h and 8h heights/temps, but starting
to look like early next week will be more humid with temperatures
running 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Storm chances start increasing as well but will keep it capped
at 30-40 percent mainly across the mountains, with less chance
east.

Forecast confidence is high on temperatures increasing next week but
moderate on chance of storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 700 PM EDT Tuesday...

Mainly VFR expected through the 24 hour Valid TAF. Late night
fog possible in the Greenbrier Valley near KLWB and near the New
River just west KBCB, but impacts are expected to be temporary.

Winds are expected to be light and variable.

Forecast confidence = good.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR anticipated through the remainder of the week. Mainly dry conditions
expected through Sunday.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...PM