385
FXUS65 KABQ 160001 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
601 PM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 123 PM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue over the
region through Tuesday. This activity will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall, strong winds, hail, and frequent lightning.
A few storms over the region may become strong to severe, especially
over northwest NM on Monday then over parts of eastern NM Tuesday.
Drier and breezy weather will return Wednesday and Thursday with
warming temperatures once again. A couple storms are still possible
over far eastern NM however chances are still low. The next storm
system may approach Friday with cooler temperatures, more wind,
and storms possibly over eastern NM. The coolest temperatures so
far this season may arrive behind this system for next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 123 PM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Looking at IR and WV satellite imagery, there is no evidence to
former tropical storm Ileanas whereabouts, but total precipitable
water products from the GOES imagers do indicate PWATs nearing 1.5
to 2.0 inches over southern Sonora in Mexico. Surface dewpoints and
PWATs are already climbing slowly in NM and this will continue into
Monday, but on a very modified basis (ensembles showing a crest near
0.8 inch near ABQ late Mon with other areas closer to 1.0 inch). The
upper low has dropped over the WA/OR coastline and should be
overtaking the northern CA coast through the late afternoon. This
will continue to draw the subtropical segment of the jet into NM
tonight and Monday before the polar segment noses its way toward the
Four Corners Monday night. This speed max will introduce some
divergence and forcing aloft, allowing broken lines of showers and
storms to redevelop over western and central NM with some periodic
isolated cells roaming into east central and northeastern sections
of the forecast area through early this evening. Overnight, high
resolution CAMs and global models have a consensus for rain focusing
over northwestern to west central NM as a jet streak aloft
approaches.

On Monday, the low will work into the Great Basin of Nevada with
strong jet dynamics evolving, but still feeding upward forcing into
much of western and northern NM. Healthy speed shear would be
present areawide with northwestern areas being the most likely to
observe strong to severe cells, mainly from downburst winds, but
also a hail threat Monday afternoon and evening. The stronger
southwesterlies aloft and gradually strengthening surface gradient
will also produce stronger prevailing breezes Monday, and lower
pressure heights and increased clouds will cool temperatures just a
couple of degrees. Showers and storms would persist well into the
overnight hours as the low chugs toward the northeast corner of NV,
and precipitation should inch eastward some as forcing aloft does
the same. While storm motions will be fast-paced, there is a threat
of multiple rounds of storms on the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon
wildfire burn scar, so a Flood Watch will be hoisted for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 123 PM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A 559dm H5 low positioned over northeast NV Tuesday morning will
move E/NE into western WY thru the afternoon. A potent H3 jet axis
near 110kt over northwest AZ in the base of this wave will slide
east while weakening to near 85kt over northwest NM Tuesday. A
secondary speed max near 65 kt draped across southern AZ Tuesday
morning will be absorbed into the stronger speed max farther north
thru the day. This subtle feature may have implications on forcing
convection from Monday night to continue over central and western
NM thru Tuesday morning. The southern speed max coincides with a
mid level dry intrusion approaching from the west, which will also
assist the overall large scale ascent increasing over the region.
Rich moisture in place over NM will be wrung out in the form of
numerous showers and storms from the central mt chain eastward
into Tuesday evening. The 13Z NBM shows the greatest probs for
>0.25" rainfall over the northern mts and the northeast plains.
Another Flash Flood Watch may be needed for the HPCC burn scar.
Some of this activity may be strong to severe over eastern NM with
bulk shear values increasing to between 40 and 50kt, boundary
layer CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, and PWATs from 0.75" to 1.25". Model
guidance continues trending farther west with the stronger storm
initiation Tuesday morning. The latest HRRR even shows activity
ongoing before sunrise along the central mt chain. The latest SPC
severe weather outlook shows only northeast NM under a `Marginal
Risk` for severe storms however this may warrant expansion to all
of eastern NM if these trends continue. Storms will likely end by
midnight across eastern NM while drier and cooler air filters in
from the west.

Wednesday and Thursday will feature strengthening southwest flow
aloft ahead of the next strong H5 low entering the Great Basin. Much
drier air with breezy southwest winds will spread over much of NM
along with warmer temps. Near-record highs are possible again around
Roswell with temps in the upper 90s both days. A couple storms are
possible over the far southeast plains where some guidance hangs
onto deeper low level moisture and instability, however confidence
is low.

Extended models are still advertising the H5 low moving east over
northern NM Friday and Saturday. Cooler air will arrive with this
system along with more wind and increasing chances for showers and
storms across the north and east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 PM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms producing
lightning, and brief heavy rain continue to trend down this
evening. Lcl wind gusts to 40 kt remain possible this evening
from any passing showers or storms. Isolated showers and storms
shift to northern and eastern NM after midnight. On Monday,
showers and storms will be most likely over the northwest third
to half of the state with prevailing southwest winds on the
increase during the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 123 PM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The weather pattern is changing today as moisture seeps into the
area from the southwest and a deep low pressure system moves down
the west coast. This setup will continue to lead to the development
of more showers and thunderstorms over western and central NM today,
focusing more over western areas tonight. A few sparse or isolated
storms may even impact northeastern to east central NM through early
this evening. Wetting rainfall will still be somewhat hit-and-miss
through tonight, however on Monday, the previously mentioned low
pressure system will move into the Great Basin of Nevada, spreading
any remnant tropical moisture over western and northern NM. This
will keep scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
redeveloping over most western and northern zones Monday. Prevailing
breezes will be gusty, occasionally hitting 20 to 30 mph Monday
afternoon, but even gustier winds will accompany passing showers and
storms, especially in northwestern NM. In addition, brief heavy
downpours and possible wildfire burn scar flooding (mainly over the
Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon scar) will be of concern Monday while
humidity rises and peaks. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will still be common Tuesday morning, but drier air
will arrive later in the day, pushing storms to the eastern half of
NM. The prevailing winds will strengthen a bit more Tuesday,
especially in the far northeastern corner of NM where gusts may even
occasionally reach 35 to 45 mph, and local storms would be capable
of enhancing these winds for brief periods. Moisture exits NM on
Wednesday, eliminating rain chances for the day and possibly even
through Thursday, but low level moisture will return on Friday,
leading to scattered strong dryline storms. This moisture could
linger in eastern NM until Saturday, pending the outcome of a
potential cold front. Elsewhere, a mostly dry and breezy forecast
will hold.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  59  79  57  74 /  60  80  50  50
Dulce...........................  47  72  47  68 /  50  80  70  80
Cuba............................  51  76  51  72 /  50  80  50  70
Gallup..........................  52  78  50  73 /  50  70  30  30
El Morro........................  50  75  49  71 /  60  70  30  40
Grants..........................  50  79  49  77 /  50  70  30  50
Quemado.........................  51  77  50  75 /  50  50  30  30
Magdalena.......................  56  79  56  79 /  30  50  30  40
Datil...........................  50  76  48  75 /  30  60  30  30
Reserve.........................  51  80  51  76 /  40  50  30  30
Glenwood........................  58  82  58  79 /  30  50  40  20
Chama...........................  45  66  46  62 /  40  80  70  80
Los Alamos......................  55  76  55  74 /  40  70  60  80
Pecos...........................  51  77  52  70 /  40  60  60  70
Cerro/Questa....................  48  72  49  68 /  20  70  50  60
Red River.......................  39  65  42  60 /  20  70  50  70
Angel Fire......................  38  67  43  64 /  30  70  40  70
Taos............................  47  77  49  72 /  20  60  40  60
Mora............................  46  74  48  69 /  30  70  50  80
Espanola........................  55  84  56  81 /  40  60  60  70
Santa Fe........................  55  78  57  73 /  40  60  60  70
Santa Fe Airport................  56  83  55  78 /  40  60  50  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  57  83  60  82 /  40  50  50  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  60  85  62  83 /  40  50  40  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  87  57  85 /  40  50  40  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  58  85  61  83 /  40  50  40  40
Belen...........................  57  88  58  86 /  30  40  40  30
Bernalillo......................  57  86  59  85 /  40  50  50  50
Bosque Farms....................  55  87  56  85 /  40  50  40  30
Corrales........................  57  86  59  85 /  40  50  50  50
Los Lunas.......................  56  87  57  85 /  40  40  40  30
Placitas........................  56  83  58  81 /  40  60  50  60
Rio Rancho......................  59  85  61  84 /  40  50  50  50
Socorro.........................  61  88  62  88 /  30  30  30  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  54  79  54  75 /  40  60  50  60
Tijeras.........................  55  81  56  78 /  40  60  50  60
Edgewood........................  53  81  53  78 /  40  50  50  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  49  82  50  80 /  40  50  50  60
Clines Corners..................  51  79  53  75 /  40  50  50  60
Mountainair.....................  53  82  54  78 /  30  40  40  50
Gran Quivira....................  53  82  55  78 /  30  40  40  40
Carrizozo.......................  58  84  60  81 /  20  30  30  40
Ruidoso.........................  48  77  50  75 /  20  30  30  60
Capulin.........................  51  78  52  73 /  20  30  20  50
Raton...........................  50  81  53  76 /  20  40  20  60
Springer........................  51  83  54  78 /  20  40  30  60
Las Vegas.......................  50  79  52  74 /  30  50  40  70
Clayton.........................  59  86  60  83 /  20  10  20  40
Roy.............................  56  82  57  77 /  20  30  40  60
Conchas.........................  60  90  61  85 /  20  20  40  60
Santa Rosa......................  59  85  60  82 /  30  20  40  60
Tucumcari.......................  60  90  62  88 /  20  10  20  60
Clovis..........................  62  90  62  89 /   5   5  10  40
Portales........................  61  90  63  90 /   5   5  10  30
Fort Sumner.....................  60  88  62  88 /  10  10  20  50
Roswell.........................  65  92  67  92 /   0  10  10  30
Picacho.........................  58  84  60  86 /  10  20  20  40
Elk.............................  54  82  57  84 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for
NMZ214-215.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...33