794
FXUS65 KABQ 241120 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
520 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 111 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Temperatures are forecast to rise a few degrees today while
showers and thunderstorm activity focuses over the southwestern
mountains of New Mexico and other remaining areas observe fewer
storms. Storms will be slow-moving, so any place that does receive
rainfall could receive a heavy downpour. Temperatures warm up even
more on Tuesday with lots of lower elevation valleys and plains
areas reaching the mid to upper 90`s and even 100 degrees by the
late afternoon. Showers and storms will continue to favor the
southwestern mountains Tuesday. Temperatures will remain hot
going into Wednesday with readings running only a couple degrees
cooler than Tuesday, but shower and thunderstorm activity will
increase late in the day and into the evening as an upper level
disturbance and rich monsoon moisture combine over the state. This
trend of slightly cooler temperatures and increased thunderstorm
activity is expected to persist into Thursday with a few storms
even turning strong or perhaps severe. Rain chances may lower on
Friday, but will increase again into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 111 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Well above normal atmospheric moisture remains over NM as last
night`s sounding measured a 1.14" PWAT, underlying the spreading
and encroaching elongated 592dm H5 high. Water vapor imagery does
show dry air more in-line with the centroid of the upper high over
the Permian Basin. Models push this drier mid-level air into
southeastern NM where PoPs have been dialed back from yesterday.
This will bode well for lowering the risk of flash flooding on the
South Fork and Salt Fire burn areas today. Afternoon thunderstorms
will again favor the western mountains, mainly over Catron and
western Socorro Counties this afternoon where scattered to numerous
PoPs are in the forecast. Coverage of storms today will depend on if
the current batch of mid-level broken to overcast skies will break
up. This same patch of sky coverage acted to inhibit convective
activity Sunday and may end up doing so again. HiRes CAMs in
particular are not enthused about convective coverage, except over
the Gila NF and west-central NM. Numerical model guidance is also
showing surface dewpoints lowering to near or below 50F by the
afternoon, sucking away some of the fuel for thunderstorms to grow
from as well. This is reflected well in the latest GFS and ECMWF
runs showing little to no QPF from storms over the northern
mountains. Thus have left the isolated to scattered mention for
storms over the northern mountains today, which again could bode
well for the Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar. Nevertheless,
despite the lower precipitation chances and subsequent lack of a
Flood Watch, it will still be a "it only takes one storm" kind of
day to ruin any positive outlook.

What convection does get going today, will steadily taper off
through the evening hours. Tuesday sees the H5 strengthen to 595dm
and move more squarely over NM. Highs rise back into the 90s and low
100s for many lower elevation areas. This includes 97F at
Albuquerque and 104F at Roswell. Moisture trapped beneath the H5 high
will again fuel afternoon convection favoring initiation over the
high terrain. Numerical model guidance is also trying to latch onto
a few storms developing along a surface boundary over east-central
NM as well, and have introduced a slight chance PoPs in this area.
Otherwise, storm motions will be slow and erratic drifting off over
surrounding lower elevation areas. Late day and evening storms will
likely be along colliding outflow boundaries throughout central NM.
Rain footprints will be small and localized given the slow storm
motions, meaning the threat of localized flash flooding will remain
where these cells develop.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 111 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The upper level high may weaken by a decameter or two on
Wednesday as it settles over southwestern NM near the AZ border.
This will help temperatures cool by a degree or two in several
zones while eroding some of the subsidence in the area. PWATs will
again be lowest in the northern zones Wednesday, but still close
to 1.0 inch with higher moisture entrenched over the remainder of
the state (PWATs near or over 200 percent of normal in western
zones). The other feature to note is a weak shortwave perturbation
that is being modeled to be drawn up into northwestern and
eventually north central zones which could act as a trigger for an
uptick in convection. Also, there is a bit more of a southeasterly
surface wind component modeled over eastern NM which would offer
faint low layer moisture advection and perhaps some light upslope
flow to help initiate storms on the central mountain chain. The
POPs have been trending up the past two forecast cycles for these
reasons and the continued sluggish steering flow will reintroduce
a more substantial heavy rainfall threat Wednesday into Wednesday
evening. A Flood Watch seems inevitable at this point.

On Thursday, the anticyclone gets suppressed as a Pacific low
treks along the Canadian border, allowing westerlies aloft to
infiltrate the central and southern Rockies. A speed max aloft (45
to 50 kt at 300 mb and somewhat weaker than what was advertised
yesterday) will enter northwestern NM, introducing speed shear.
Despite the westerlies, there is so much subtropical moisture in
place over such a vast area, that PWATs will still remain very
high (1.0 to 1.4 inch) over most of the forecast area. This
environment will be supportive of stronger, better vented storms
that will be capable of moving off of the higher terrain and
sustaining themselves with strength and more organization.

The westerlies do finally erode away some of the moisture over the
northwestern half or so of the state on Friday, leading to a
downtick in convection while temperatures will respond upward.
This looks to be short-lived though, as the Bermuda high begins
building back westward (but still east of NM) into the weekend.
This will orient a southerly component to the flow that will steer
subtropical moisture back into NM, somewhat on Saturday, but
more-so into early next week. This could establish another long
duration of daily convection as June ends and July begins.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Skies have cleared considerably overnight. Afternoon thunderstorm
activity is expected to begin over the western and central
mountain chains near the noon hour or 18Z. Storm coverage will
steadily increase thru the afternoon, with the highest coverage of
storms focused over west-central NM. More isolated to scattered
thunderstorm coverage will be present over the northern mountains
and south-central mountains. Localized MVFR conditions will
accompany any thunderstorm cell. Coverage is only enough to
warrant PROB30s at KGUP, KSAF and KLVS for thunderstorm impacts.
KABQ and KAEG do have TEMPOs for higher confidence that gusty
winds could reach these terminals later in the day. Thunderstorm
activity will wane thru the evening hours with skies steadily
clearing out again tonight into Tuesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 111 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Above normal moisture remains through the forecast period, albeit
with a down tick in overall thunderstorm activity today and Tuesday.
Afternoon thunderstorms will favor initiation over the western and
northern mountains. Storm motions will be slow and erratic,
producing small and localized wetting footprints. The threat of
localized flash flooding on recent burn scars will be lower than in
recent days, but still present. Highs will climb into the 90s and
low 100s for lower elevation areas as humidity begins to fall a tad.
Nevertheless overnight recoveries will remain fair to good most
areas today and Tuesday morning. The upper high settles directly
over NM Tuesday and Wednesday bringing the hottest temperatures of
the forecast period. Meanwhile, a weak perturbation rounding the
western edge of the upper high will favor an increase in afternoon
thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon. This will increase the
risk of flash flooding again, especially over recent burn areas.
This threat continues Thursday as the upper high begins to flatten.
The increased coverage of storms will offset the benefit of
increased storm motions keeping storms moving and not dumping their
rainfall all on one location. Drier air punches in via westerly flow
Friday, lowering afternoon thunderstorm activity to end the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  91  64  95  66 /   5   5   5  10
Dulce...........................  88  49  91  53 /  20  10  10   5
Cuba............................  85  58  89  60 /  20  20  10  10
Gallup..........................  88  55  90  59 /  30  30  20  20
El Morro........................  83  58  85  58 /  50  50  30  30
Grants..........................  86  56  89  60 /  40  40  30  20
Quemado.........................  84  59  86  60 /  60  40  50  40
Magdalena.......................  86  65  89  67 /  50  30  40  30
Datil...........................  82  62  85  61 /  70  40  60  30
Reserve.........................  90  56  91  57 /  60  50  60  40
Glenwood........................  95  69  96  68 /  50  40  50  40
Chama...........................  83  51  85  53 /  30  10  20  20
Los Alamos......................  84  66  88  66 /  40  20  30  20
Pecos...........................  85  62  88  61 /  30  10  30  30
Cerro/Questa....................  82  51  86  52 /  30  20  30  20
Red River.......................  75  50  78  46 /  30  10  30  30
Angel Fire......................  79  46  82  39 /  30  10  20  20
Taos............................  87  55  90  57 /  20  10  20  20
Mora............................  84  56  86  55 /  30  10  40  20
Espanola........................  91  62  95  65 /  20  10  20  20
Santa Fe........................  86  65  90  66 /  30  10  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  89  63  93  64 /  20  10  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  92  70  95  70 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  69  97  72 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  95  69  98  65 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  93  70  97  71 /  20  20  20  20
Belen...........................  94  66  99  69 /  20  20  20  20
Bernalillo......................  94  69  98  69 /  20  20  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  94  65  98  64 /  20  20  20  20
Corrales........................  94  69  98  70 /  20  20  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  94  67  99  66 /  20  20  20  20
Placitas........................  90  69  95  68 /  20  20  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  93  69  97  72 /  20  20  20  20
Socorro.........................  95  72  98  73 /  30  20  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  85  66  89  65 /  20  20  20  20
Tijeras.........................  88  66  92  67 /  20  20  20  20
Edgewood........................  89  62  92  63 /  20  20  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  90  59  93  61 /  20  20  20  30
Clines Corners..................  84  61  89  61 /  20  30  20  30
Mountainair.....................  87  62  91  64 /  30  20  20  30
Gran Quivira....................  88  63  92  63 /  30  20  30  30
Carrizozo.......................  93  70  95  71 /  20  20  30  30
Ruidoso.........................  84  64  86  59 /  30  20  50  30
Capulin.........................  87  59  90  58 /  20  20  20  20
Raton...........................  90  59  93  59 /  20  20  10  20
Springer........................  91  60  95  60 /  30  20  20  20
Las Vegas.......................  84  59  88  60 /  30  20  30  20
Clayton.........................  93  66  97  67 /  10  10   5  20
Roy.............................  89  63  93  65 /  20  20  20  20
Conchas.........................  96  69 100  69 /  10  20  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  92  67  97  68 /  20  20  20  30
Tucumcari.......................  97  70 101  69 /   5  10  20  30
Clovis..........................  96  70  98  69 /   5  10  20  40
Portales........................  96  71  99  71 /   5  10  10  30
Fort Sumner.....................  96  72 100  70 /  10  20  20  30
Roswell......................... 100  75 104  76 /   5  10  10  20
Picacho.........................  94  68  96  68 /  20  10  40  30
Elk.............................  92  64  93  64 /  20  10  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...24