Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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241 FXUS61 KAKQ 250808 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 408 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the Mid-Atlantic region today. A cold front approaches the area later Wednesday afternoon and crosses the region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure builds north of the region for the later portion of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday... GOES water vapor channels depict an upper trough over the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast, with upper level ridging now displaced to the west over the mid and lower Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, weak high pressure is centered over the region. Mostly clear early this morning with temperatures in the 60s for most of the area, and upper 50s for the NW Piedmont counties. There is some patchy shallow ground fog over s-central VA and interior NE NC. Surface high pressure slides across the region today and nudging offshore by afternoon as upper level ridging builds in from the west. Sunny and dry today. Temperatures are expected to be near to above seasonal averages today with highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s, with mid 90s possible in the RIC metro. Dewpoints will be rather comfortable for late June ranging from the mid 50s to around 60F during peak heating. Surface high pressure settles off the Southeast coast tonight. Mostly clear and warm with low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s with a light SSW wind. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Heat builds again Wednesday and heat indices likely exceed 100F again. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, with a few storms potentially being strong or severe with damaging wind gusts to primary threat. The ridge aloft prevails much of the day Wednesday. Although, and upper trough and cold front will approach from the NW later in the day. 850mb temperatures surge to 20-22C ahead of the cold front supporting high temperatures in the mid 90s to near 100F. Dewpoints during peak heating will generally be in the mid 60s to around 70F, which will result in heat indices primarily 100-104F. Mostly sunny through mid-afternoon and then becoming partly sunny with a SW wind of 10-15 mph. Forecast soundings show the boundary layer remains capped much of the day prior to some height falls arriving later Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. This should allow some showers/tstms to arrive later Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, especially across the northern tier of the area. Any tstms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts given a deep well mixed boundary layer. The cold front weakens and settles into the area Wednesday night. Given this, some showers and a few tstms could linger overnight. Otherwise, partly cloudy with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. The cold front slowly pushes south across southern VA and NE NC Thursday as high pressure and a drier airmass build into the northern tier of the area. Showers/tstms are expected to redevelop along the boundary Thursday afternoon with the highest chc across SE VA and NE NC. High temperatures return to seasonally hot levels ranging from the upper 80s to around 90F. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Heat rebuilds across the region Saturday and Sunday and potentially more humid. - Flash drought conditions continuing across most of the area. High pressure builds across New England Thursday night into Friday, and then settles off the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday. This will bring mainly dry conditions. Lows Thursday night are forecast to be in the mid 60s to lower 70s, followed by highs Friday ranging from the mid 80s NE to lower 90s SW. Highs Saturday are forecast to be in the lower to mid 90s after morning lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A cold front approaches from the NW Sunday. Therefore, temperatures will likely soar into the mid to upper 90s ahead of the front based on the current timing. Dewpoints potentially remain in the lower to mid 70s (mid 70s mainly toward the coast) during peak heating Saturday and Sunday. This is supported by the LREF and individual deterministic models, but is below the too high mid/upper 70s shown by the NBM. Resultant heat indices are in the upper 90s to lower 100s Saturday, and then potentially 105-109F for much of the CWA Sunday. There is a chc of showers/tstms later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as the cold front drops through the region. Not as hot Monday with highs in the mid 80s to near 90F. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday... High pressure is building into the region as of 06z. VFR with a calm to very light wind. VFR conditions are expected to prevail today into tonight as high pressure passes over the area and settles off the Southeast coast by later tonight. The only exception will be some brief shallow ground fog at ECG early this morning, but this should be short-lived as drier air filters in from the NW. The wind is expected to become SSW 5-10kt inland today, and SE 5-10kt along the coast. By tonight the wind is expected to become SSW 8-12kt. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. A weakening cold front will approach from the NW later Wednesday aftn and then will drop into the area Wednesday night bringing a 20-40% chc of showers/tstms. This front will be slow to push through southern VA and NC NE Thursday with a 30-50% chc of aftn/early evening showers/tstms. High pressure and dry conditions return Friday into Saturday. && .MARINE... As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA marine conditions expected today. - Modest southerly flow returns this evening into Wednesday evening ahead of the next cold front. Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered over SW PA into West VA. Winds were northerly 5-10 kt across the waters. Waves were 1-2 ft, and seas were 2-3 ft. The sfc high will build across the region this morning, then slides off the coast and out to sea for this aftn into Wed. Light winds will turn to the SE or S at 10-15 kt by this evening. A brief period of SCA conditions will occur this evening into early Wed morning (7 pm this evening to 4 am Wed morning), esply over the nrn two Ches Bay zns (630-631) with S winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas will mainly be 2-3ft today, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches Bay. Seas build to 3-4ft N tonight into Wed, and waves in the Bay ~2ft with increasing southerly flow. 4-5 ft seas will be possible for a brief period north of Parramore Island late Wed aftn and evening. Another weakening cold front pushes through the region during Thu. The wind shifts to NE then E or SE late week and is expected to be at or below 15kt. Low rip current risk is forecast for all beaches today. A moderate rip risk is possible for the northern beaches on Wed, as southerly flow and associated wind waves increase. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB/AJZ NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...RHR/TMG