Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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656 FXUS61 KAKQ 290829 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 429 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Heat and humidity return for today and Sunday. A cold front drops across the area late Sunday night through Monday morning. Ahead of it, strong to severe storms with heavy rainfall are expected. Dry weather is then expected through the middle of next week with additional heat concerns possible for Independence Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 410 AM EDT Saturday... Early this morning, sfc high pressure was centered off the New England coast, providing dry weather across the area. However, the sky cover ranged from clear to cloudy, due to the development of stratus or low SC over portions of the region. Temps were ranging from the mid 60s to the upper 70s. Sfc high pressure will shift farther out to sea during today, as low pressure moves from the nrn Great Lakes ENE into SE Canada with its trailing cold front pushing into the OH Valley. A weak warm front will lift north of the area, bringing SE or S flow and hotter temps. Should be mainly dry today, but may see isolated showers or a tstm over portions of the region, as weak shortwave energy passes through. CAMs do show some morning convection along or just off the coast this morning into this aftn, so have 15-25% PoPs in the SE. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s inland/Piedmont, and in the mid 80s to around 90 near the Bay and along the coast. With dewpoints up into the lower 70s, heat indices will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 410 AM EDT Saturday... Key messages: - Hot and very humid conditions expected on Sunday with dangerous heat indices around 105F. - A cold front brings potential for strong to severe storms and heavy rain Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Isolated showers or tstms will be possible across the W and N tonight into Sun morning, associated with a lee trough. Warm and humid tonight with lows mainly in the mid to upper 70s. An upper trough and a strong cold front (for this time of year, at least) will approach the area Sun, crossing the region Sun night through Mon morning. Ahead of the front, S/SW flow will allow hot and very humid conditions to continue. Cloud cover and potential morning pcpn could hinder high temps, but still expecting highs in the lower to mid 90s. With dew pts in the mid 70s in most areas during peak heating, dangerous heat indices around 105F are in the forecast. While the potential for morning convection exists, the main threat for sctd to numerous storms will be in the aftn and into the overnight hours. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected, esply for ESE portions of the FA, where PWs will approach 2.5". As such, WPC has placed this portion of the region in a Marginal ERO. Instability provided by the heat/humidity along with moderate shear will allow for some storms to be strong to severe, despite the stronger winds aloft being to the N. Thus, there is a Slight risk for severe storms for just about the entire FA, and a Marginal risk for coastal NE NC. Pcpn will taper off and end from NW to SE from late Sun night through Mon morning. Lows Sun night will range from the mid 60s N, to the lower 70s far SE. Pcpn will push SE of NE NC by Mon aftn, with N winds ushering much drier air into the region during the day. The sky will become mostly or partly sunny with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Clear or mostly clear and comfortable Mon night, as sfc high pressure builds in from the N. Lows will be mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 415 AM EDT Saturday... High pressure will bring dry weather through mid week. Mostly sunny and generally comfortable on Tue with highs mainly in the lower to mid 80s. Hotter conditions and more humidity returns for Wed, then very hot and humid for Thu and Fri. Highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Wed, and in the mid to upper 90s on the Fourth of July and Fri (lower 90s over the Lower MD and VA ern shore both days). With dewpoints climbing back into the upper 60s to lower 70s both days, there is the potential for heat indices over 100. There also will be a chance for aftn tstms both days. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 235 AM EDT Saturday... High pressure centered off the New England was leading to light E/ESE flow at area terminals early this morning. As a result, stratus and lower SC were developing over portions of the region. Guidance continues to favor low-end MVFR, but cannot rule out patchy pockets of IFR stratus, esply in/near central VA (including RIC) until around 12Z this morning. Not expecting much in the way of VSBY restrictions. A few showers are also possible at ECG through this morning. For this aftn, mainly dry conditions expected though a very brief shower or storm is possible at any terminal. SCT CU again redevelops with a 7-12 kt S or SE wind. Mainly dry conditions continue into tonight, with just an isolated threat of a shower or storm. Sctd to numerous showers/tstms are likely Sun aftn through Sun night, some of which could be strong to severe. High pressure and drier conditions return for later Mon morning through Tue. && .MARINE... As of 335 AM EDT Saturday... Key messages: - A High Rip Risk for eastern shore (VA/MD) beaches today, with moderate Rip Risk for SE VA & NE NC. Moderate Rip for all beaches Sunday. - Generally sub-SCA conditions with periods of breezy onshore/southerly winds today. A brief period of SCA level winds is expected in the bay late this afternoon and this evening, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect during this period. - A period of SCA conditions is very likely for most of the waters on Monday with northerly winds behind a cold front. 1024+ mb sfc high pressure just offshore of the Delmarva remains in control of conditions across the region, with E-SE winds 10-15 kt this morning. Seas are 3-4 ft, with waves 1-2 ft. Have added a High Rip Risk for this morning for eastern shore beaches. E-NE swell 3-4 feet and 9 seconds persists this morning, and with the shore-normal component to wave energy, poses an elevated threat for rip currents, especially around low tide between 8-10 this morning. High pressure slides farther offshore today, allowing the front to the south to lift back north as a warm front. Resultant low-level flow turns around to the SSE this afternoon. As the NE swell weakens and SE winds and E-SE swell becomes more dominant this afternoon, it is possible that Rip Risk could ease a bit. For now though, High Rip Risk for northern beaches today, and a Moderate Rip Risk for SE VA/NE NC beaches. Moderate Rip Risk for all beaches Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory has also been issued for late this afternoon into the evening for the Ches Bay, with tightening pressure gradient allowing SSE winds to increase to ~15-20 kt. Local wind probs show a 40- 70% chc of sustained 18 kt winds between 6 PM Sat - 2 AM EDT Sun (highest in the mid/upper bay with some channeling effects). Winds become SSW and diminish to 10-15 kt after midnight tonight/early Sunday, with winds remaining SSW through Sunday afternoon. A decently strong summer cold front looks to approach the area Sunday before crossing the waters from NW-SE between 2-10 AM late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Scattered to numerous tstms are expected Sun aftn into Sun night, which will likely necessitate a few rounds of SMWs. Damaging winds will be the main threat, with a few of the storms capable of producing large hail and W-NW wind gusts to ~50 kt. Sub-SCA winds prevail outside of any storms from Sun- late Sun evening. However, there will be decent cool/dry advection following the cold FROPA Monday morning into early afternoon. N winds to increase to ~20 kt (with frequent gusts around or just above 25 kt). SCA probs are AOA 80% for most of the marine area late Sun night through midday Monday and another round of SCAs are likely be needed for all of the Ches Bay, Lower James, Sound and quite possibly for the upper rivers/coastal waters. Seas generally 3-4 ft this weekend with 1-3 ft waves. Seas could build to 5 ft S of Cape Charles on Monday following the cold FROPA (with 3-4 ft waves). Sub- SCA waves and seas are expected from Mon night through the middle of next week, as light return flow develops, with afternoon sea-breeze circulations likely prevailing for the mid week period. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...AM/TMG LONG TERM...AM/TMG AVIATION...TMG MARINE...ERI/MAM