370
FXUS61 KAKQ 151805
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
205 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry with seasonable temperatures continue through the weekend.
A very warm and mainly dry pattern then looks to take hold for
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 205 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A few degrees cooler with pleasant humidity levels this
  afternoon and and tonight.

Latest analysis reveals surface low pressure is now well
offshore of the New England coast. The associated surface cold
front is now offshore, extending south along the coastal
Carolinas and extending W-SW across the mid-South. To the NW,
1024+mb high pressure over the upper Great Lakes continues to
build E-SE over the interior northeast this afternoon. Aloft,
mid-level trough axis is offshore of the New England coast with
a building upper ridge from the mid- South to the central gulf
coast.

Breezy NNE winds are bringing an influx of cooler/drier air,
with a mainly clear/sunny sky and pleasant afternoon in progress
across the region. 18z temps range from the low to mid 80s over
much of the area, with cooler lower 80s over Hampton Roads into
northeast NC. Continued clear and a bit cooler tonight with
lows in the upper 50s NW and low to mid 60s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A bit warmer each day (Sunday and Monday), but relatively
  comfortable humidity levels continue.

High pressure remains centered to the north of the local area
Sunday, and slowly transitions offshore later Sunday into Sunday
night. Resultant low-level winds transition from E-NE to E-SE
through the day. Meanwhile, the upper ridge strengthens over the
southeast CONUS, allowing for PW and dewpoints to slowly
increase tomorrow afternoon and night. Given this timing, expect
apparent temperatures (heat index values) to remain similar to
air temperatures. Highs Sunday increase slightly as thicknesses
climb, ranging generally in the mid to upper 80s inland with
low to mid 80s for areas closer to the coast. Milder and
slightly more humid Sunday night with low temps in the low to
mid 60s.

Upper ridge continues to build on Monday with highs again rising
slightly into the upper 80s to low 90s. Onshore wind component
(SE) will again keep areas near the coast a few degrees cooler,
generally in the mid to upper 80s. Lows Monday night in the mid
to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Very warm and dry weather likely persists for the mid week
  period through next weekend.

Medium range period looking to be characterized by an extended
period of very warm (but not quite hot) and mainly dry
conditions. The anomalously strong upper heat ridge continues
to build as it drifts north along the eastern seaboard. This
sets up an atypical temperature pattern through midweek with
warmer highs to the north, as E-SE winds keep coastal areas into
the Hampton Roads/N OBX area slightly cooler. H5 heights rise
to ~596-598 dam Tue-Wed. A mostly sunny sky will result in
highs in the low to mid 90s Tuesday afternoon as the core of the
upper ridge begins to lift just north of the area.

EPS/GEFS guidance does (very) slowly break down the heat ridge
for the mid to late week period, as an inverted upper trough
pushes ashore along the deep south from the western Atlantic,
undercutting the core of the heat ridge aloft to our north.
This will result in a continued very warm/dry late week period.
High temps hold in the low/mid 90s through the week, with
Tuesday looking like the warmest day of the first half of the
week. However, as surface dew points are forecast to remain in
the 60s, we don`t appear likely to threaten any Heat Headline
thresholds through the middle of the week ahead.

The hottest part of the week at this time actually looks to be
Friday into next weekend, as high pressure slides offshore of
the mid-Atlantic coast into the western Atlantic. A more
typical summertime Bermuda Ridge pattern then allows heat to
build Friday and Saturday. EPS/GEFS probs and thickness schemes
from both the ECMWF and GFS favoring more widespread mid to
upper 90s and Max Heat Indices creeping into the upper 90s to
low 100s. Overnight lows stay in the 60s for most of the week
but could approach 70 degrees heading into next weekend as low
level moisture increases. A low chance for thunderstorms may be
feasible by next weekend, as a weak lee trough sets up Sat/Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z TAF period. Winds are N
5-10 kt with some gusts to ~15-20 kt near the coast. Winds
become light/variable tonight, while dry/SKC conditions persist
as high pressure builds NW of the region.

Outlook: Winds will average 10 kt or less with dry/VFR conditions
and a mostly clear sky Sunday into early next week as high
pressure gradually shifts off the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1045 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front will cross the waters this morning. Northerly
  winds behind the front are expected to gust to around 20 kt, with
  a 2-3 hour period of 20-25 kt gusts expected on the bay from
  this morning through midday.

- Sub-advisory conditions are expected through the remainder of the
  weekend into early next week.

A Moderate Rip Current Risk Remains in place this afternoon for our
southern beaches from Virginia Beach to the northern Outer
Banks of Currituck, NC.

A cold front has pushed offshore of the local waters late this
morning. Winds have turned to the north behind the front. There
will be a brief surge behind this front with the strongest of
the winds to continue through early afternoon, with gusts to
around 20 kt for the next few hours over most of the waters. On
the bay, where water temps have warmed into the mid- upper
70s, a brief period of 20-25 kt gusts is possible with the weak
cool/dry advection following the FROPA this morning. The latest
guidance has trended upward with wind speeds, and local wind
probabilities for sustained 18 kt winds have increased to 45-60%
on parts of the bay for a few hours (mainly between 7-11 AM).
As such, have issued SCAs for the bay until 17z/1 PM to account
for this. Winds gradually diminish and become NE this afternoon
through tonight, with speeds decreasing to 5-10 kt by midnight.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on Sunday with E winds around 10 kt
as high pressure builds southward into the Mid-Atlantic states.
Winds become SE and increase to near 15 kt (w/ 15-20 kt gusts
possible) by Sunday evening as the high begins to shift offshore.
Winds are expected to be S-SE at 10-15 kt on Monday and Tuesday as
the high shifts offshore. A few gusts to 20 kt are possible during
the evening on each day.

Seas generally 2-3 ft over the ocean with 1-3 ft waves on the bay
through the period, although seas will briefly build to 4 ft by late
morning behind the cold front. Can`t completely rule out brief 5 ft
seas offshore of the NE NC coast today.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/RHR
LONG TERM...MAM/RHR
AVIATION...MAM/RHR
MARINE...ERI