450
FXUS61 KAKQ 260129
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
929 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides offshore tonight into Wednesday. A cold
front approaches the area later Wednesday afternoon and crosses
the region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing the next
chance for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure builds north
of the region for the latter portion of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 915 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Quiet weather prevails overnight with increasing humidity.

The latest WX analysis shows westerly flow aloft over the local
area, with sfc high pressure becoming centered farther off the
Carolina coast. A cold front and associated upper shortwave are
well to our NW (over the Great Lakes). Temperatures remain warm
this evening in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and dew pts are
rising (though still relatively comfortable in the low-mid 60s
for most). Mostly clear with just high thin clouds, and warm
with low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s along with
a light SSW wind. There will be a noticeable increase in dew pts
overnight into early Wed morning, rising into the upper 60s NW
to lower 70s SE by sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Heat builds again Wednesday and heat indices likely exceed 100F
again.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night, with a few storms potentially being
strong or severe with damaging wind gusts to primary threat.

- A few thunderstorms are possible across SE VA/NE NC Thursday
afternoon-evening.

Wednesday will be the hottest day of the period before the cold
front (and trough aloft) cross the local area Wednesday night into
Thursday. The low-level flow increases out of the SW on Wednesday,
allowing 850mb temperatures to surge to 20-22C ahead of the cold
front. This supports high temperatures in the mid 90s to near 100F.
Similar to today, dew points should mix out during the day and drop
into the mid to upper 60s (perhaps even a degree or two lower)
during peak heating. So while temps will be near 100F, heat indices
will generally range from 100-104F. Mostly sunny through mid-
afternoon and then becoming partly sunny with a SW wind of 10-15
mph.

Forecast soundings show that the boundary layer remains capped much
of the day prior to some height falls arriving later Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. There is somewhat better agreement
in the 12z/25 CAMs that widely scattered tstms initially develop in
the higher elevations of W/NW VA by 3-4 PM before trying to push SE
into NW portions of the FA. However, these initial tstms will likely
weaken as they push toward the RIC metro as the atmosphere will
likely remain capped through at least Wed evening across the SE half
to two-thirds of the area. The highest tstm chances will be from 5
PM-1 AM mainly north of I-64 as the actual front nears the area
before the convection gradually weakens early Thu AM. Areas south of
a Farmville-Richmond-Williamsburg line will likely see little to no
rain through Thu AM...with localized totals in excess of 1" possible
from Louisa County to the MD Eastern Shore. In addition, any storm
will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts given very strong
sfc heating, a deep well mixed boundary layer, and some mid-level
drying. In fact, forecast soundings from most models show DCAPE
values of 1200-1500 J/kg Wed aftn/evening. Lows Wed night in the
upper 60s to mid 70s.

The cold front slowly pushes south across southern VA and NE NC
Thursday as high pressure and a drier airmass build into the
northern tier of the area. Showers/tstms are expected to redevelop
along the boundary Thursday afternoon with the highest chc across
extreme SE VA and NE NC. High temperatures return to seasonally hot
levels ranging from the upper 80s to around 90F. Any tstms dissipate
or move to our south by late Thu evening. High pressure builds
across New England Thursday night into Friday following the FROPA.
Lows Thu night fall into the mid 60s-lower 70s. Dry but still
seasonally hot on Fri with highs in the upper 80s-lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Heat rebuilds across the region Saturday and Sunday and
potentially more humid.

- Flash drought conditions continue across most of the area.

The heat builds back over the local area this weekend as high
pressure pushes well off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Another upper
trough and cold front approach the area from the NW late this
weekend, and the cold front is progged to cross the area Sunday
night. Forecast high temperatures are mainly in the mid 90s on both
Saturday and Sunday, with aftn dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s
(mid 70s mainly toward the coast) during peak heating on both days.
This is supported by the deterministic guidance and MOS guidance,
but is below the mid/upper 70s shown by the NBM (which is likely too
high especially given how dry it has been). Resultant heat indices
are in the upper 90s to lower 100s Saturday, and then potentially
105-109F for much of the CWA Sunday. Isolated to widely scattered
tstms are possible on Sat (mainly W of I-95), with a better chc of
showers/tstms later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as the cold
front drops through the region. Not as hot Monday with highs in the
mid 80s to near 90F.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for most of the next 24
hours, with the potential for brief flight restrictions in
showers/tstms late in the period over mainly northern portions
of the area. Winds will generally be S to SW at ~10 kt overnight.
Skies remain clear outside of high clouds through midday Wed,
with SCT cumulus (5000-7000 ft AGL) developing by early Wed
aftn. Winds on Wed will be SW at ~10kt with gusts up to 20 kt.
As the cold front approaches from the NW later Wednesday aftn,
and drops into the area Wednesday night, scattered showers/tstms
are expected (highest at SBY). Gusty winds and brief heavy
downpours will be possible with any tstms, especially Wed
evening. Lingering showers/storms are possible overnight,
generally with diminishing coverage after midnight.

This front will be slow to push through southern VA and NC NE
Thursday with a 30-50% chc of redeveloping aftn/early evening
showers/tstms. High pressure and dry conditions return Friday
into Saturday. A chance for showers/tstms again later Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1255 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs conditions expected across the middle Ches Bay tonight,
  north of New Point Comfort.

High pressure slides off the coast and out to sea late this
afternoon into Wed. Light winds will turn to the SE or S at
10-15 kt by this evening. A brief period of SCA conditions will
occur this evening into early Wed morning (7 pm this evening to
4 am Wed morning), over the middle two Ches Bay zones (630-631)
with S winds 15-20 kt and gusts up to 25 kt. Seas build to 3-4ft
N tonight into Wed, and waves in the Bay ~2ft with increasing
southerly flow. 4-5 ft seas will be possible for a brief period
north of Parramore Island late Wed aftn and evening. Another
weakening cold front pushes through the region during Thu. The
wind shifts to NE then E or SE late week and is expected to be
at or below 15kt.

Low rip current risk is forecast for all beaches today. A low rip
risk is expected again on Wed given southerly flow and short
wave periods at or below 5 secs.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-635.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI
LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...JDM/TMG