Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
934 FXUS61 KALY 291031 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 631 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front approaching from the southwest will bring occasional showers today, along with breezy conditions. Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours are expected tonight. A cold front will bring additional scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday, some of which could be strong to severe, mainly south and east of Albany. Fair weather and less humid conditions return for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... .UPDATE...As of 630 AM EDT, area of light to moderate rain with a few pockets of heavy rain now spreading eastward for most areas near and especially north of I-90/I-88. Rainfall rates of 0.30-0.40/hour have been observed per NYS Mesonet across portions of the Mohawk Valley. So heavier pockets of rain are embedded within the larger area of light/moderate rainfall. Expect occasional rain for areas near and north of I-90 through around 10 AM, with light to moderate intensity expected. Some showers may eventually extend into portions of the mid Hudson Valley/SE Catskills and NW CT during this time as well. After 10 AM, the rain should shift farther northward, with periods of rain continuing across the southern Adirondacks and Lake George region, and more intermittent showers south and east to I-90 and southern VT. Little if any rainfall is expected for a period around midday for the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Showers then increase once again from W to E later this afternoon. PREVIOUS [0400 AM]...As of 4 AM EDT, increasing mid level warm advection and a lead shortwave have allowed an area of mainly light rain to expand across much of western/central NY, and is currently reaching the SW Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley with some sprinkles as far east as the Capital/Saratoga region. The rain should continue expanding east through daybreak, with most areas along and north of I-90/NW of I-88 experiencing light to moderate rain showers by daybreak, with some showers extending as far south as the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. These showers should continue through around mid morning, before possibly lifting back northward during the midday hours. Areas across the southern Adirondacks extending into the Lake George region and southern VT should have occasional showers through most of the day. Showers will be more intermittent closer to and south of I-90/SE of I-88, especially this afternoon. Some weak elevated instability approaching from the west may allow for a few embedded thunderstorms late this afternoon across the SW Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley, along with heavier downpours. It will remain breezy at times today, especially within north/south oriented valleys and the Capital Region, with south/southeast winds occasionally gusting as high as 30-40 mph. High temperatures should reach the lower/mid 70s in valley areas later this afternoon, except 75-80 across the mid Hudson Valley. Portions of the southern Adirondacks and Lake George region may only reach the upper 60s to lower 70s due to more frequent showers. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Warm front approaches from the southwest tonight, with additional shortwave energy crossing the region. Expect several rounds of showers and thunderstorms, especially for areas north of I-90 this evening. High PWAT`s of ~2", and warm cloud depths may lead to locally heavy downpours at times. The showers/thunderstorms may shift south of I-90 after midnight with a general decrease in areal coverage. It will be warm and humid tonight, with temperatures holding in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Warm front lifts north/east of the region Sunday morning, with pre-frontal trough crossing the region from NW to SE during the late morning/early afternoon hours, followed by main cold front during the afternoon. There could be a band of showers/thunderstorms developing and/or crossing the region during the mid to late morning hours associated with the prefrontal trough, especially for areas north and west of the Capital Region. Heavy downpours and gusty winds could accompany some of these storms, as instability builds with HREF mean SB CAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg amid 0-6 km shear of 40-50 KT. Isolated severe thunderstorms could occur with this initial band. Then, this pre-frontal trough and associated showers/thunderstorms should shift south/east of the Capital Region during the afternoon. Greater instability (SB CAPES 1500-2000 J/kg) and 0-6 km shear of 40-50 KT may allow storms to become somewhat more organized, particularly across the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT, Berkshire and SE VT, where SPC has placed a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. The remainder of the region is under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe threat, however can not rule a tornado or two across the Slight Risk area given the strong shear, potentially high instability and low LCL`s ahead of the prefrontal trough. Additional scattered showers/thunderstorms may redevelop later in the afternoon with the main cold front. However, overall instability may be reduced from earlier convection. High temps should reach the 80s for most valley areas and 70s across higher terrain areas. Heat indices could approach the mid 90s across portions of the mid Hudson Valley, and if confidence for this to occur, heat advisories may be issued for this area. Lingering showers/thunderstorms across southern areas Sunday evening should taper off, however isolated/scattered showers may redevelop across the southern Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley region as upper level trough approaches. Some of these showers could continue into Monday morning, especially for the upper Hudson Valley into southern VT and the Berkshires. Otherwise clearing and cooler for Monday with highs mainly in the 70s. Mainly clear and cool for Monday night, with low temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure will be centered over the region on Tuesday resulting in dry weather, plenty of sunshine, seasonable temperatures and low humidity. This high will push eastward on Wednesday as a warm front lifts northward across the area. The best forcing will remain to our north and west so Wednesday should also remain mostly dry. Highs will rise well into the 80s across the valleys and the upper 70s to lower 80s in the higher elevations. A cold front associated with an area of low pressure tracking well northward into Quebec will slowly cross the region Wednesday night into Thursday, Independence Day. Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely accompany the front during this time. There remains a bit of uncertainty with the timing of the front and if enough instability and shear will be present for stronger storms. Precipitable water values may increase to over 1.50 inches, so some heavy downpours are possible. Will monitor trends over the coming days. Otherwise, it looks to be a very warm and humid day on Thursday with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s across many valley areas with some lower 90s across the mid-Hudson Valley (upper 70s to lower 80s in the higher elevations). The cold front looks to stall just south of our region on Friday but could remain close enough to keep the chance for additional showers and thunderstorms around. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06z/Sun...Variable flight conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Periods of rainfall will occur through the TAF period as a warm front lifts across the region. Light rain showers will begin toward daybreak at KALB/KGFL and continue through the morning hours, with a break possible during the midday. VFR cigs to start will continue to lower into this morning, with some MVFR periods at times through the afternoon. Rainfall later this afternoon into tonight may become steady at times with at least MVFR vsbys and IFR/MVFR cigs at most if not all sites. Wind will be variable or southerly through the overnight at around 10 kt at KALB and less than 10 kt elsewhere. Wind will likely increase out of the south Saturday into Saturday evening at 10 to 15 kt with gusts around 25 kt. If wind at KGFL falls to or below 10 kt later Saturday afternoon and evening, then periods of LLWS could occur as winds at 2000 feet increase to around 40 kt. Have left out of the TAFs at this time due to low confidence. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Isolated SHRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .HYDROLOGY... Showers will overspread the region today, with embedded thunderstorms developing later today into tonight. High PWAT`s of ~2", warm cloud depth and some potential training of thunderstorms could increase the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding tonight into Sunday. The greatest potential for this looks to be across the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley for tonight, with a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been outlined by WPC. With the abundant moisture in place through Sunday, A few instances of flash flooding are possible in any areas where repeated heavy downpours occur. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis/KL NEAR TERM...KL SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...Rathbun HYDROLOGY...KL