934
FXUS61 KALY 291031
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
631 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front approaching from the southwest will bring
occasional showers today, along with breezy conditions. Showers
and thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours are expected
tonight. A cold front will bring additional scattered showers
and thunderstorms Sunday, some of which could be strong to
severe, mainly south and east of Albany. Fair weather and less
humid conditions return for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...As of 630 AM EDT, area of light to moderate rain with
a few pockets of heavy rain now spreading eastward for most
areas near and especially north of I-90/I-88. Rainfall rates of
0.30-0.40/hour have been observed per NYS Mesonet across
portions of the Mohawk Valley. So heavier pockets of rain are
embedded within the larger area of light/moderate rainfall.

Expect occasional rain for areas near and north of I-90 through
around 10 AM, with light to moderate intensity expected. Some
showers may eventually extend into portions of the mid Hudson
Valley/SE Catskills and NW CT during this time as well.

After 10 AM, the rain should shift farther northward, with
periods of rain continuing across the southern Adirondacks and
Lake George region, and more intermittent showers south and east
to I-90 and southern VT. Little if any rainfall is expected for
a period around midday for the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.
Showers then increase once again from W to E later this
afternoon.

PREVIOUS [0400 AM]...As of 4 AM EDT, increasing mid level warm
advection and a lead shortwave have allowed an area of mainly
light rain to expand across much of western/central NY, and is
currently reaching the SW Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley with
some sprinkles as far east as the Capital/Saratoga region. The
rain should continue expanding east through daybreak, with most
areas along and north of I-90/NW of I-88 experiencing light to
moderate rain showers by daybreak, with some showers extending
as far south as the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.

These showers should continue through around mid morning, before
possibly lifting back northward during the midday hours. Areas
across the southern Adirondacks extending into the Lake George
region and southern VT should have occasional showers through
most of the day. Showers will be more intermittent closer to and
south of I-90/SE of I-88, especially this afternoon.

Some weak elevated instability approaching from the west may
allow for a few embedded thunderstorms late this afternoon
across the SW Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley, along with
heavier downpours.

It will remain breezy at times today, especially within
north/south oriented valleys and the Capital Region, with
south/southeast winds occasionally gusting as high as 30-40 mph.
High temperatures should reach the lower/mid 70s in valley areas
later this afternoon, except 75-80 across the mid Hudson Valley.
Portions of the southern Adirondacks and Lake George region may
only reach the upper 60s to lower 70s due to more frequent
showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Warm front approaches from the southwest tonight, with
additional shortwave energy crossing the region. Expect several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms, especially for areas north
of I-90 this evening. High PWAT`s of ~2", and warm cloud depths
may lead to locally heavy downpours at times. The
showers/thunderstorms may shift south of I-90 after midnight
with a general decrease in areal coverage. It will be warm and
humid tonight, with temperatures holding in the mid 60s to lower
70s.

Warm front lifts north/east of the region Sunday morning, with
pre-frontal trough crossing the region from NW to SE during the
late morning/early afternoon hours, followed by main cold front
during the afternoon. There could be a band of
showers/thunderstorms developing and/or crossing the region
during the mid to late morning hours associated with the
prefrontal trough, especially for areas north and west of the
Capital Region. Heavy downpours and gusty winds could accompany
some of these storms, as instability builds with HREF mean SB
CAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg amid 0-6 km shear of 40-50 KT.
Isolated severe thunderstorms could occur with this initial
band. Then, this pre-frontal trough and associated
showers/thunderstorms should shift south/east of the Capital
Region during the afternoon. Greater instability (SB CAPES
1500-2000 J/kg) and 0-6 km shear of 40-50 KT may allow storms to
become somewhat more organized, particularly across the mid
Hudson Valley, NW CT, Berkshire and SE VT, where SPC has placed
a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. The remainder of the
region is under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe threat, however
can not rule a tornado or two across the Slight Risk area given
the strong shear, potentially high instability and low LCL`s
ahead of the prefrontal trough.

Additional scattered showers/thunderstorms may redevelop later
in the afternoon with the main cold front. However, overall
instability may be reduced from earlier convection. High temps
should reach the 80s for most valley areas and 70s across higher
terrain areas. Heat indices could approach the mid 90s across
portions of the mid Hudson Valley, and if confidence for this to
occur, heat advisories may be issued for this area.

Lingering showers/thunderstorms across southern areas Sunday
evening should taper off, however isolated/scattered showers may
redevelop across the southern Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley region
as upper level trough approaches. Some of these showers could
continue into Monday morning, especially for the upper Hudson
Valley into southern VT and the Berkshires. Otherwise clearing
and cooler for Monday with highs mainly in the 70s.

Mainly clear and cool for Monday night, with low temperatures in
the 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be centered over the region on Tuesday
resulting in dry weather, plenty of sunshine, seasonable
temperatures and low humidity. This high will push eastward on
Wednesday as a warm front lifts northward across the area. The best
forcing will remain to our north and west so Wednesday should also
remain mostly dry. Highs will rise well into the 80s across the
valleys and the upper 70s to lower 80s in the higher elevations.

A cold front associated with an area of low pressure tracking well
northward into Quebec will slowly cross the region Wednesday night
into Thursday, Independence Day. Showers and a few thunderstorms
will likely accompany the front during this time. There remains a
bit of uncertainty with the timing of the front and if enough
instability and shear will be present for stronger storms.
Precipitable water values may increase to over 1.50 inches, so some
heavy downpours are possible. Will monitor trends over the coming
days. Otherwise, it looks to be a very warm and humid day on
Thursday with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s across many valley
areas with some lower 90s across the mid-Hudson Valley (upper 70s
to lower 80s in the higher elevations).

The cold front looks to stall just south of our region on Friday but
could remain close enough to keep the chance for additional showers
and thunderstorms around.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z/Sun...Variable flight conditions are expected over
the next 24 hours. Periods of rainfall will occur through the
TAF period as a warm front lifts across the region. Light rain
showers will begin toward daybreak at KALB/KGFL and continue
through the morning hours, with a break possible during the
midday. VFR cigs to start will continue to lower into this
morning, with some MVFR periods at times through the afternoon.
Rainfall later this afternoon into tonight may become steady at
times with at least MVFR vsbys and IFR/MVFR cigs at most if not
all sites.

Wind will be variable or southerly through the overnight at
around 10 kt at KALB and less than 10 kt elsewhere. Wind will
likely increase out of the south Saturday into Saturday evening
at 10 to 15 kt with gusts around 25 kt.

If wind at KGFL falls to or below 10 kt later Saturday afternoon
and evening, then periods of LLWS could occur as winds at 2000
feet increase to around 40 kt. Have left out of the TAFs at this
time due to low confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Isolated SHRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers will overspread the region today, with embedded
thunderstorms developing later today into tonight. High PWAT`s
of ~2", warm cloud depth and some potential training of
thunderstorms could increase the potential for heavy rainfall
and localized flooding tonight into Sunday. The greatest
potential for this looks to be across the southern Adirondacks
and western Mohawk Valley for tonight, with a Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall has been outlined by WPC.

With the abundant moisture in place through Sunday, A few
instances of flash flooding are possible in any areas where
repeated heavy downpours occur.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...KL