597
FXUS61 KALY 300233
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1033 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A moist southwest flow will bring periods of rain with a chance
for thunderstorms into tonight. A cold front will bring
additional scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday, some of
which could be strong to severe, mainly south and east of
Albany. Fair weather with cool and breezy conditions return for
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 1030 PM...Showers continue to decrease in
coverage this evening with the main coverage in the Southwest
Adirondacks. Higher reflectivity noted on the KENX radar
indicates some heavier downpours embedded within these
showers, but with rapid flow keeping them from remaining in one
place for too long, accumulations have not been too impressive.
In fact, the Old Forge Mesonet site only has about 0.34" for the
latest 1-hour accumulation.

Few updates were necessary with this update outside of minor
updates to PoPs and temperatures to reflect latest obs and
trends. The warm front now rests comfortably to the northeast
with the surface trough approaching the region. Additional
showers and possibly some embedded rumbles of thunder in the
Southwest Adirondacks are possible throughout the night as the
surface trough continues to push eastward. See the previous
discussion for additional details.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
The area of rain that dominated much of the region this
afternoon has decreased to mere scattered showers across the
area this evening with the heaviest rainfall embedded within
showers to the north and west of Albany. The latest SPC
Mesoanalysis indicates increasing instability mainly to the west
of the Hudson River with SBCAPE values at about 100-250 J/kg.
This aligns well with the latest HRRR that depicts SBCAPE
continuing to increase throughout the evening and into the
overnight period especially in the Southwest Adirondacks.

Speaking of the HRRR, this has been the model of choice for the
evening as other sources of HiRes guidance have struggled to
accurately resolve convection. According to the latest run,
shower activity should continue to decrease such that coverage
should become widely scattered over the coming hours. However,
maintained thunder in the forecast especially after midnight for
embedded rumbles of thunder as instability increases with almost
stagnant low temperatures and sustained elevated dewpoints. Low
temperatures overnight will primarily span the 60s with pockets
near 70 mainly in the Mid-Hudson Valley and southwest New
England.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
On Sunday, The Storm Prediction Center has placed the southeast
part of our forecast area in a slight risk for severe weather
with the rest of the area in a marginal risk. The cold front is
forecast to move from northwest to southeast across the area.
Ahead of the front the airmass will be unstable.

We expect a band of showers/thunderstorms to develop and
cross the region during the day Sunday. Heavy downpours and
gusty winds could accompany some of these storms, as instability
peaks in the afternoon with CAPES 1500-2000 J/kg and 0-6 km
shear of 40-50 KT. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
severe threat, however can not rule a tornado or two across the
Slight Risk area given the strong shear, potentially high
instability and low LCL`s ahead of the cold front. High temps
should reach the 80s for most valley areas and 70s across higher
terrain areas. Heat indices will approach the mid 90s across
portions of the mid Hudson Valley, but look to be below heat
advisory thresholds.

A few showers and storms may linger Sunday evening over the far
southeastern areas and a few showers and storms may redevelop
over the southern adirondacks in the evening with the upper
level trough and cold pool moving southeastward.

Monday looks cooler and breezy, but with the upper level trough
overhead, a shower is possible over western New England.
Otherwise clearing and cooler for Monday with highs mainly in
the 70s.

Mainly clear and cool for Monday night, with low temperatures in
the 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be centered over the region on
Tuesday resulting in sunny, warm and dry weather. This high
will push southeastward on Wednesday resulting in a southwest
return flow of milder air. Wednesday should also remain mostly
dry. Highs will rise well into the 80s across the valleys and
the upper 70s to lower 80s in the higher elevations.

A cold front associated with an area of low pressure tracking
well northward into Quebec will slowly cross the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, Independence Day. Showers and a
few thunderstorms will likely accompany the front during this
time. There remains a bit of uncertainty with the movement of
the front. Best case scenario, the front moves through the area
early thursday leaving a mostly fair Independence Day before
the front returns northward Thursday night into Friday bringing
additional showers and storms. Worse case the front stalls over
the area with showers and storms on Independence day. Will
monitor trends over the coming days. Otherwise, it looks to be a
very warm and humid day on Thursday with heat index values
reaching the 90s in the valley areas.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z Monday...Flying conditions range from VFR
(KALB/KPOU) to MVFR (KGFL/KPSF) across the terminals this
evening due to low ceiling heights as low-level RH remains
elevated ahead of a warm frontal passage. Today`s previous area
of rain has been reduced to mere showers across the region this
evening which are currently either just outside or within the
vicinity of the TAF sites.

Throughout the remainder of the evening, scattered showers are
set to continue. Showers, especially those that contain heavier
downpours and/or those that cross KGFL and KPSF whose ceilings
are on the lower end of MVFR thresholds, will be capable of
dropping VFR/MVFR ceilings to MVFR/IFR heights. At this time,
impacts to visibility are not anticipated, though will monitor
conditions and make amendments should a heavier downpour look to
potentially cause reductions.

While the latest HiRes models indicate a fair reduction in
coverage to showers for the overnight period, the latest HRRR
indicates some light showers could cross each of the terminals
during the overnight period. These are not expected to reduce
visibility past VFR thresholds, but once again MVFR to IFR
ceilings are possible especially at KGFL and KPSF. This looks to
be most likely between 06-09z and TEMPOs were added to the TAFs
accordingly.

Shower activity should break at the terminals by daybreak,
yielding VFR to MVFR ceilings across the terminals. Tomorrow, a
period of showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of a
passing cold front. Included PROB30 groups to reflect this
likelihood, though uncertainty still exists pertaining to the
exact timing due to model disagreement. Will provide adjustments
in future updates.

Winds throughout the period will remain breezy out of the south
to southwest. Sustained speeds ranging from 10-15 kt with gusts
of 15-27 kt will remain possible through the evening before
decreases to sustained speeds of 6-10 kt occurr for the
overnight. Tomorrow, sustained speeds will range form 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall today and
tonight across all but Litchfield County CT. Showers will
continue to overspread the region tonight, with embedded
thunderstorms developing later today into tonight. High PWAT`s
of ~2", warm cloud depth and some potential training of
thunderstorms could lead to heavy rainfall and localized
flooding tonight into Sunday. The greatest potential for this
looks to be across the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk
Valley for tonight, where some areas have already received over
an inch of rain.

Localized flooding of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas
is possible from any thunderstorms.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...Gant
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...Gant
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL