Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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189 FXUS64 KAMA 110533 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1233 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 148 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A broad area of low pressure continues to sit over the area within upper level ridge present over the Southern Great Plains and Desert Southwest. Based on this mornings upper air sounding PWATs are around 1.23" with a very tropical like sounding with some cold air aloft near H7 to H5 layer. An MCV was seen on radar this morning and has taken an unusual track back to the northwest coming up into the FA from the south and sparking showers and thunderstorms across the southwestern TX Panhandle. Heavy rainfall rates have been observed verifying the very moist morning sounding. Effective CAPE values are between 200 and 400 J/Kg allowing for enough instability for a few rumbles of thunder and rainfall rates between 1" and 2" an hour. This activity with the dynamics aloft are expected to continue through this evening with activity winding down after that. Until then, the main threat today will be potential flooding with this set up. Thanks to the cloud cover and rain, afternoon temperatures are expected to remain in the 70s for much of the southwestern half of the combined Panhandles. Some additional shower activity may continue overnight into tomorrow with a secondary low pressure system aloft is expected to trek across the area. This low will favor the rain staying in the southern TX Panhandle southward. It is yet to be determine how much activity may actually occur overnight as CAMs have backed off on precip. The speed of the low will determine how long PoPs potentially stick around for tonight and tomorrow. As the low moves off, skies should clear a little in the afternoon for sunshine to help temperatures make it into the 80s. Tomorrow night is expected to be primarily rain free with the maybe the exception of some lingering activity in the far southeastern TX Panhandle. Again, depends on how fast this this weak cutoff low moves across. 36 && .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 148 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Wed H5 heights are progged to rise to around 590 dam under a ridge expected to build in over the area. On Thu those H5 heights are expected to rise to near 595 dam. Afternoon temperatures Wed are expected to be in the lower 90s, with upper 90s expected for Thu with these height rises. Quite a bit of moisture is expected to be in place for both days again with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s and H7 theta-e advection near 330 to 340 K. Models mostly expect Wed through Thu to be dry. However, if any disturbance comes across the ridge showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Have stayed with NBM values which do now give some slight chance PoPs, mainly across the northern combined Panhandles for Thu night. Fri may be a few degrees cooler. However, temperatures are still expected to be well into the mid 90s. A shortwave trough may move into the area Fri night from the southwest. This will give the northwestern half to two thirds of the combined Panhandles a 30 to 50 percent chance for thunderstorms Fri night into Sat morning. Again these are the current NBM PoPs. Depending on the rain this may help hold temperatures back on Sat with upper 80s to lower 90s for an afternoon high on Sat. Under high pressure on Sun temperatures are expected to warm to the mid to upper 90s once again. 36 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Low ceilings are occurring in the panhandles this morning with MVFR to IFR conditions. These low clouds can impact all terminals with the best time for occurrence being near sunrise. In addition to the low clouds fog may also form this morning and impact all terminals. The fog seems most likely where it rained with KAMA having the best odds of it occurring on station. Rain shower and thunderstorms may form again mainly in the southern TX panhandle late this morning to afternoon. The odds of these impacting any terminal are currently not high enough to reflect in the TAFs. Otherwise winds will remain light at all terminals through the rest of today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 82 61 90 66 / 30 10 0 0 Beaver OK 87 62 95 67 / 10 0 0 0 Boise City OK 86 57 95 64 / 20 0 10 0 Borger TX 87 63 95 67 / 20 10 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 86 62 94 66 / 10 10 0 0 Canyon TX 82 60 89 63 / 30 10 0 0 Clarendon TX 79 61 85 64 / 40 10 0 0 Dalhart TX 85 58 93 61 / 10 0 10 0 Guymon OK 86 60 95 64 / 10 0 0 0 Hereford TX 83 61 91 65 / 20 10 0 0 Lipscomb TX 84 62 92 66 / 20 10 0 0 Pampa TX 82 62 89 65 / 20 10 0 0 Shamrock TX 81 63 87 65 / 40 10 0 0 Wellington TX 81 63 87 65 / 50 20 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...98