824
AXNT20 KNHC 040601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jul 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0555 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Beryl is centered near 18.3N 80.1W at 04/0300 UTC or 95
nm SE of Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands, moving WNW at 18 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295
km). Numerous strong convection is observed within 60 nm from the
center and scattered moderate convection is present within 200 nm
from the center, especially in the NE quadrant. Peak seas are
currently near 25 ft. Beryl is moving west-northwestward and a
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
day or two, taking the core of Beryl just south of the Cayman
Islands overnight and over the Yucatan Peninsula early Friday.
Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
Friday night and turn northwestward. Beryl is a category 3
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
weakening is forecast during the next day or two, however, Beryl
is forecast to be at or near major hurricane intensity while it
passes by the Cayman Islands. Additional weakening is expected
thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane until
it makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W, south of 21N, moving
westward at 15-20 kt. The broad tropical wave is embedded in dry
Saharan air, suppressing the development of showers and
thunderstorms.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave (Invest 96L) is along 64W,
south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Fresh to strong
easterly winds associated with this wave cover much of the eastern
Caribbean. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is found in
the eastern Caribbean. Peak seas are currently near 8 ft.
Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while
it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph
across the Caribbean Sea during the next several days. This system
is then forecast to cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enter the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico by early next week where some
development could occur. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
are possible across portions of the Greater Antilles over the next
few days. The chance of formation in the next 48 hours and 7 days
is low. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 13N29W and
then to 05N39W. The ITCZ extends from 05N39W to 10N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident from 03N to 07N and between 33W and
50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
Hurricane Beryl, forecast to enter the Gulf early Fri.

A few showers over the Big Bend region of Florida extend into the
nearshore waters of the NE Gulf of Mexico. Generally dry
conditions prevail elsewhere. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found in the SE Gulf, including the
Florida Straits and eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are found in the remainder of
the basin.

For the forecast, Hurricane Beryl is near 18.3N 80.1W at 2 AM
EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 18 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 110 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 965 mb. Beryl will move to 18.5N 81.9W Thu morning,
19.1N 85.1W Thu evening, 19.8N 87.9W Fri morning, move inland and
weaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N 90.4W Fri evening, 21.7N
92.5W Sat morning, and 22.8N 94.3W Sat evening. Beryl will
strengthen to a hurricane over 24.6N 97.1W late Sun. There remains
some uncertainty in the track forecast of Beryl over the western
Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
Hurricane Beryl. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for
additional convection in the Caribbean Sea.

Most of the basin is under the influence of Hurricane Beryl,
located SE of the Cayman Islands, and Invest 96L, positioned in
the eastern Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
captured fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds in the
central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-11 ft. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate to rough seas are occurring in the NW
Caribbean, west of 83W, and SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, Hurricane Beryl is moving into the NW Caribbean
and is forecast to remain away from the Atlantic basin. Otherwise,
central Atlantic high pressure extends a weak ridge southwestward
to N Florida to support gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas north of 25N, with moderate to fresh trades and
mainly moderate seas south of 25N. Winds and seas will be locally
strong north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and into the Windward
Passage through early Fri as Beryl exits the Caribbean. Meanwhile,
a decaying cold front from 30N to 31N will sink south to 29N
through early Thu, then stall and dissipate through Fri night.
High pressure will build westward and into the Bahamas over the
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on
the waves moving across the basin.

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N62W and
continues to 29N70W, where it transitions to a stationary front to
31N75W. Scattered moderate convection is seen on satellite imagery
north of 27N and between 56W and 66W. Moderate to locally fresh
W-SW winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found in the waters described.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of
an expansive 1028 mb high pressure system centered near 42N36W.
The pressure gradient between this ridge and Hurricane Beryl
supports fresh to strong easterly winds between the Bahamas and
Cuba and Hispaniola, including the entrance of the Windward
Passage. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly breezes and seas of 6-9 ft are present south of 20N
and west of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Beryl is near 18.3N 80.1W
at 2 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 18 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 110 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 965 mb. Beryl will move to 18.5N 81.9W Thu
morning, 19.1N 85.1W Thu evening, 19.8N 87.9W Fri morning, move
inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N 90.4W Fri
evening, 21.7N 92.5W Sat morning, and 22.8N 94.3W Sat evening.
Beryl will strengthen to a hurricane over 24.6N 97.1W late Sun. A
surge of fresh to strong winds, rough seas, and numerous squalls
is expected to move across the eastern and central Caribbean
through Fri, associated with a strong tropical wave. Fresh to
strong E to SE winds will then prevail across much of the central
and NW Caribbean this weekend.

$$
Delgado