685
AXNT20 KNHC 011803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jul 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Beryl, now a dangerous Category 4 Hurricane is centered near
12.4N 61.3W at 01/1500 UTC or 30 nm NE of Grenada, moving WNW at
17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Peak seas are
currently around 44 ft near Grenada. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is noted up to 80 nm from the center.
Scattered moderate convection is present north of the center
across the Leeward Islands. Beryl will continue to move westward
to west-northwestward farther away from the southern Windward
Islands, and across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea for
the next few days. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the
next day or so, but Beryl is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane as its core moves through the Windward
Islands into the eastern Caribbean. Some weakening is expected in
the central Caribbean by midweek, though Beryl is forecast to
remain a hurricane. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are
expected across the Windward Islands today. Large swells generated
by Beryl are expected across Windward and southern Leeward
Islands during the next couple of days. Swells are also expected
to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the
next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

The remnants of former Tropical Depression Chris is centered near
20.2N 97.8W at 01/1500 UTC or 50 nm SSW of Tuxpan Mexico, moving
WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas
are currently around 8 ft north of Veracruz. Heavy rainfall will
result in areas of flooding and mudslide across higher terrain of
the Mexican states of Guanajuato, Quertaro, and San Luis Potos
today.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more detail. For
the latest Beryl and remnants of Chris NHC Forecast/Advisory and
Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

Central Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96):
A 1010 mb area of low pressure related to a tropical wave is
located about 1000 nautical miles east-southeast of the Windward
Islands near 10N38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
08N to 11N between 39W and 41W. Peak seas are currently around 8
ft near the center. Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form by the middle part of this week at
the central and western tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. This system
has a MEDIUM chance of tropical cyclone development over the next
to 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
at www.hurricanes.gov for more detail.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 15N southward
through AL96 mentioned in the Special Features section, and
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is seen from 06N to 09N between 36W and 38W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 77W from near Jamaica
southward into western Colombia, and moving westward at 15 to 20
kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is found from 13N to 18N
between 77W and the Honduras/Nicaragua coast.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Mauritania coast
just north of Nouakchott through 10N30W and Invest AL96 to 07N49W.
No ITCZ is present based on the latest analysis. Numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted south of the trough from
07N to 11N between the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast and 23W. and
from 04N to 08.5N between 25W and 31W. Scattered moderate
convection is found farther west from 05N to 09N between 23W and
31W. Widely scattered moderate convection is evident near the
western end of the trough from 05N to 08N between 42W and 46W.

The eastern end of East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean
waters near Costa Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for the latest details
on the remnants of Chris located inland in Veracruz, Mexico.

A surface trough curves southwestward from the Florida Panhandle
to just south of New Orleans. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 80 nm south of this
feature. Another surface trough is causing isolated thunderstorms
at the Florida Straits. A modest surface ridge runs westward from
the Florida Big Bend area to a 1018 mb high over northeastern
Mexico. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas exist
at the southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle
NE to SE winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft are noted for the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, marine conditions will gradually improve in the
southwestern Gulf this afternoon in the wake of Chris, with
ridging and gentle to moderate winds prevailing across the Gulf
through early Thu. Thereafter, distant Hurricane Beryl, currently
moving across the Windward Islands, is forecast to be in the
northwestern Caribbean on Thu and then enter the Yucatan
Peninsula Fri morning near 19N 88.5W. Beryl is then expected to
move across the Yucatan and enter the Gulf of Mexico Fri afternoon
or evening as a tropical storm, and reach near 20.5N 93.0W Sat
morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about dangerous Hurricane
Beryl near the Windward Islands.

A surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near western Cuba, including waters near the Island
of Youth. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
sections for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Outside
the direct influence of Hurricane Beryl, fresh to strong ENE to
ESE winds and seas at 8 to 14 ft are evident at the northeastern
basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong easterly winds and 6
to 8 ft seas are present at the central basin. Gentle to moderate
ENE to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the western basin.
Light to gentle winds and 3 to 6 ft seas in moderate easterly
swell prevail near the ABC Islands and Panama.

For the forecast, Hurricane Beryl will continue to move WNW and
across the Windward Islands today, reaching near 13.3N 64.1W this
evening, and near 15.6N 71.7W Tue evening. Afterward, it will
reach near 17.2N 79.2W Wed evening, then inland across the Yucatan
Peninsula near 19.0N 88.5W by Fri morning. Beryl is likely to
strengthen slightly through Tue morning then weaken slowly as it
moves across the remainder of the Caribbean. A surge of fresh to
strong winds and squalls is expected to move across the tropical
north Atlantic Tue night through Wed, then across the eastern and
central Caribbean thereafter, associated with an area of low
pressure, AL96, which has a medium potential for tropical cyclone
formation.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about Invest AL96 in the
central Atlantic.

An upper-level trough extends west-southwestward from a low near
31N57W across 31N58W and 27N75W to the Great Bahama Bank. Widely
scattered moderate convection is evident near these features north
of 22N between 52W and 75W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring near the central Bahamas and the Great
Bahama Bank. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A pronounced surface ridge stretches southwestward from a 1033 mb
Azores High across 31N50W to near the northwest Bahamas. It is
supporting gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas
north of 25N between 30W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Near the
Canary Islands, freshHurricane Beryl is south of the area
near 11.8N 59.9W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west at 17 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the
minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Beryl is forecast to remain
south of the area in the Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, ridging will
support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north
of 25N, with moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas
south of 25N, locally strong north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola
at times, through the next several days. A decaying cold front may
drop south of 31N Tue through Wed, potentially stalling and
lingering near 29N/30N through the end of the week to strong NNE to NE winds and seas of 6 to 9
ft dominate north of 19N between the northwest Africa coast and
30W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate with locally
fresh NW to NNE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted north of 10N
between the central Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical
Atlantic from 09N to 20N between 30W and 55W, moderate to fresh NE
to ESE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are seen. Farther west, fresh
to strong SE winds and 10 to 13 ft seas are found north of 10N
between 55W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate southerly
and monsoonal winds with seas at 4 to 7 ft in moderate mixed
swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, central Atlantic high pressure will
extend a ridge southwestward to northern Florida to support
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N,
with moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of
25N. Winds and seas will be locally strong north of Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola through the next several days as Beryl moves
through the area. A decaying cold front may drop south of 31N Tue
through Wed, potentially stalling and lingering near 29N/30N
through the end of the week.

$$

Chan