494
AXNT20 KNHC 301743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jun 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Beryl is centered near 10.9N 55.6W at 30/1800 UTC or
270 nm ESE of Barbados, moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115
kt with gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are currently to 37 ft.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm from the
center in all quadrants. A continued quick westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across
the Windward Islands Monday morning and across the southeastern and
central Caribbean Sea late Monday through Wednesday. Beryl is an extremely
dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. Beryl is expected to remain a category 4 hurricane as
it moves through Windward Islands. Heavy rainfall and localized
flooding is expected across the Windward Islands tonight and
Monday. Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are
expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Invest AL94): Satellite derived winds and
preliminary aircraft reconnaissance data indicate that the area
of low pressure located over the southern portion of the Bay of
Campeche has become better organized during the past few hours and
a tropical depression could be forming. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is south of 24N between 91W and 97W.
Current winds are 20 to 30 kt with occasionally higher gusts, and
seas of 8 to 11 ft. The system is moving toward west-northwestward at
10 to 15 kt and is expected to approach the eastern coast of
Mexico tonight and move inland on Monday morning. Consequently, a
Tropical Storm Watch may be required later today for a portion of
the eastern coast of Mexico. Interests along the Gulf Coast of
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall will result in areas of flooding
across eastern Mexico today and into Monday, with mudslides
possible in areas of higher terrain. An Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft is currently investigating the system. This system has a
HIGH chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours
and 7 days.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): Showers and thunderstorms continue
in association with an area of low pressure located several
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle
part of this week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20
mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Interests in
the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this
system.Winds are currently 15-20 kt with seas of 5 to 7 ft. This
system has a MEDIUM chance of tropical cyclone development over
the next 48 hours and a HIGH chance of development in the next 7
days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for the latest on both Invest AL94 and AL96.

Potential for Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central
America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic
circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in the
northern part of Central America. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is currently affecting portions of southern and SE
Mexico and western Central America. The latest model guidance
continues to suggest high precipitation amounts over Mexico and
northern Central America through Tue. As the system continues
propagating northwestward, higher rainfalls are expected at
Belize, Quintana Roo, Guatemala and southern Mexico through this
weekend. These rains could shift northwestward over the coastal
areas of Mexico along the Gulf of Mexico early in the week. It is
recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas to stay
alert on the latest information from their local weather services.
Please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the East
Pacific at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtmal on rainfall
information along the Pacific coastal areas of Central America.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave associated with Invest AL96 is
along 33W, south of 12N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 05N to 10N between 28W and 43W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W, from Hispaniola
southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
noted with the tropical wave. 1200 UTC Upper Air Sounding Data
from San Juan and Santo Domingo were especially helpful in
analyzing the wave position this morning.

A Bay of Campeche tropical wave associated with AL94 is along
93W, south of 24N, moving west at 5 kt. Refer to SPECIAL FEATURES
for convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N18W to 06N43W. Convection is
described in the Tropical Waves section. No segments of the ITCZ
are analyzed at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Invest
AL94.

Outside of AL94 in the Bay of Campeche, moderate to fresh E winds
prevail west of 90W with 5-7 ft seas. East of 90W, E winds are
gentle to moderate with 2-4 ft seas. 1022 mb high pressure is
centered in SE Louisiana.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge along the
Gulf coast states and a broad area of low pressure over the Bay
of Campeche will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and large
seas NW of the Yucatan Peninsula to the west-central Gulf with
occasional gusts to gale force. Conditions appear generally
conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical
depression could form before the system moves inland over Mexico
on Mon morning. Meanwhile, distant Hurricane Beryl in the Tropical
N Atlantic may reach the NW Caribbean on Thu, with tropical storm
conditions possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and
the E Bay of Campeche by Thu. Beryl is forecast to be near 17.8N
82.8W early Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for the latest details
on MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL located east of the Windward Islands and
Invest AL96 located in the eastern Atlantic.

Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the Caribbean, with
locally fresh speeds detected by satellite scatterometer in the
central Caribbean and Atlantic passages within the Lesser
Antilles. Seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Beryl will move to 11.2N 57.5W
this evening, 12.1N 60.9W Mon morning, 13.3N 64.3W Mon evening,
14.6N 68.2W Tue morning, 15.6N 72.1W Tue evening, and 16.4N 75.9W
Wed morning. Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to
near 17.8N 82.8W early Thu. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds
southeast of the Yucatan will diminish by early Mon morning. Fresh
to strong winds will pulse in the central Caribbean through Tue
morning in advance of Beryl. A surge of fresh to strong winds may
move into the tropical N Atlantic Tue night through Wed, then into
the E Caribbean thereafter, associated with an area of low
pressure which has the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on MAJOR
HURRICANE BERYL and Invest AL96 in the eastern Atlantic.

A surface trough parallels the Florida Coast along 79W, just west
of the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N to 29N
between 77W and 83W, including the Florida Straits. The remainder
of the Atlantic is guided by the subtropical Bermuda-Azores High
Pressure centered north of the area. Satellite scatterometer data
from this morning indicates gentle to moderate trades across the
basin, with 4-7 ft seas in open waters. Fresh to strong trades are
south of 20N and west of 50W, north of Hurricane Beryl. Fresh to
strong NE winds are near the coast of Africa from 20N to 28N,
east of 20W, including the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, ridging will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with
moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N,
locally strong north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola at times,
through the next several days. Hurricane Beryl will move to 11.2N
57.5W this evening, 12.1N 60.9W Mon morning, 13.3N 64.3W Mon
evening, 14.6N 68.2W Tue morning, 15.6N 72.1W Tue evening, and
16.4N 75.9W Wed morning. Beryl will change little in intensity as
it moves to near 17.8N 82.8W early Thu. A decaying cold front may
drop south of 31N Tue through Wed.

$$
Mahoney