962
AXNT20 KNHC 271611
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jun 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central
America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic
circulation associated with a developing Central American Gyre
(CAG) in Central America. Latest computer model guidance
continues to suggest high precipitation amounts through early
next week. The heaviest rainfall is forecast in Panama and Costa
Rica through Fri, then in the eastern sections of Honduras and
Nicaragua Fri into Sun as the CAG moves northwestward. Late this
weekend and early next week, heavy rain could shift over Belize,
Guatemala and southern Mexico. It is recommended that residents
in the aforementioned areas to stay alert on the latest
information from their local meteorological weather agencies.

Invest AL95: A tropical wave extends from 02N to 15N with axis
near 32W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 27W and 45W.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be unusually conducive
for late June across the central and western tropical Atlantic,
and further development of this system is anticipated. A tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form this weekend
several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands while the
system moves westward at 15 to 20 kt. Please read the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 04N to
19N with axis near 49W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Widely
scattered showers are confined to the ITCZ from 08N to 11N between
46W and 55W.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean south of 18N with axis
near 80W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is from 13N to 20N between 73W and 85W. Environmental
conditions could become more conducive for some gradual
development later this week over the western Caribbean Sea or over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then curves west-
southwestward across 09N30W to 09N43W. The ITCZ continues
westward from 09N43W to 09N48W, then from 09N50W to 07N57W. Aside
from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 02N to 12N between 09W and
25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is triggering scattered showers at the Bay of
Campeche while a middle level trough is supporting heavy showers
and tstms over Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle adjacent
waters. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extends across the E Gulf
anchored by a 1015 mb high near 25N87W. Gentle to moderate SE to
SW winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft dominate the western and north-
central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail
across the SE Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through Fri supporting light to gentle winds and slight
seas over the eastern half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas across the western half of the
basin. Looking ahead, wind and seas may increase over the SW Gulf
Fri night through Sun night as a strong tropical wave, with some
potential of tropical cyclone development, reaches the area.
Conditions will improve Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection and potential
for tropical cyclone formation. Outside the influence of the
tropical wave (AL94), gradient between the Atlantic Ridge and the
eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough is generating moderate
to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas at the eastern,
central and northwest basin. Light to gentle winds with seas to 4
ft seas are seen over the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the tropical wave may undergo some gradual
development later this week over the western Caribbean Sea or over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. Regardless of
development, fresh to strong winds along with moderate to rough
seas will trail the wave through Fri. As the wave moves W of area
by Fri, expect moderate to fresh trade winds through Mon night,
with the exception of light to gentle winds over the SW Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Azores High and associated ridge continues to domainte the
Atlantic subtropical waters, suppporting mainly gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas across the region, except for
locally fresh NE winds off the coast of W Africa to 20W and fresh
SW winds N of 27N between 65W and 70W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Azores High and related ridge
will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region
through early next week, producing mainly a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow with moderate seas northeast of the Bahamas.
Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase from the Equator to
10N between 35W and 50W late Sat through Mon as a strong tropical
wave (AL95) approaches from the east.

$$
Konarik