400
AXNT20 KNHC 292318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jun 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 10.0N 48.4W at 29/1800 UTC
or 680 nm ESE of Barbados, moving W at 20 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55
kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently 15 ft. The new
NHC intensity forecast calls for rapid strengthening and shows
Beryl becoming a major hurricane before moving across the Windward
Islands. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move
across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Beryl is
expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across
Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into Monday. This
rainfall may cause flooding in vulnerable areas. Swells generated
by the storm are expected to reach the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Newly upgraded Hurricane Beryl is centered near 10.1N 49.3W at
29/2100 UTC or 630 nm ESE of Barbados, moving W at 19 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are 17 ft.
Satellite imagery indicate an expanding central dense overcast
feature. Showers and thunderstorms are also organized in curved
bands on the west side of the circulation of Beryl. Beryl is
expected to take a relatively quick westward to west-
northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the
Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Continued steady
to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to
become a dangerous major hurricane before it reaches the Windward
Islands. Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into
Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in vulnerable areas. Showers
and thunderstorms well north of Beryl may produce 1 to 4 inches
of rain over portions of southeastern Puerto Rico Monday night
into Tuesday. Rainfall from Beryl may impact portions of southern
Hispaniola Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain
possible. Meanwhile, swells generated by Beryl are expected to
reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Please consult products from your local weather office. Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov

Northwestern Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Invest AL94):
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Bay of
Campeche tonight or early Sunday, where conditions appear
generally conducive for further development. A tropical depression
could form before the system moves inland again early next week
over Mexico. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will
affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next
week. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
development over the next 48 hours and 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov

Potential for Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central
America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic
circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in the
northern part of Central America. A 1007 mb low pressure is
analyzed near 18.5N88.5W. Currently, a cluster of moderate to
strong convection is near the low center affecting northern
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula while a band-like of showers and
thunderstorms extends from the Atlantic coast of Nicaragua all the
way northward to near Cancun, Mexico. The latest model guidance
continues to suggest high precipitation amounts over Mexico and
northern Central America through Tue. As the system continues
propagating northwestward, higher rainfalls are expected at
Belize, Quintana Roo, Guatemala and southern Mexico through this
weekend. These rains could shift northwestward over the coastal
areas of Mexico along the Gulf of Mexico early next week. It is
recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas to stay
alert on the latest information from their local weather services.
Please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the East
Pacific at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtmal on rainfall
information along the Pacific coastal areas of Central America.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 12N southward,
or several hundred nautical miles south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is on either side of the wave axis from 04N to 10N
between 29W and 33W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 kt across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic. This system has a low chance of development in 48 hours
and a high chance of development in 7 days. Please refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov

A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles with axis
along 62W from 18N southward into NE Venezuela, moving west at 10
to 15 kt. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are
noted from 11N to 16N between 60W and 67W.

Another tropical wave (AL94) is near 90W, and extends from the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula southward across Belize, western
Honduras and El Salvador. It is moving west-northwestward at
around 10 kt. Refer to the Special Features section for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
near 11N16W to 06N37W. The ITCZ extends from 06N37W to 09N44W and
then from 09N52W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 01N to 11N between 20W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Invest
AL94 forecast to likely affect Mexico early next week.

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters, with high pressure located over
northern Florida. Fresh to strong E to ESE winds and seas at 5 to
9 ft over the south- central Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel.
Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and 3 to 5 ft seas
dominate the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and
seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge along the
Gulf coast states and a broad area of low pressure over the
Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and
building seas spreading from the Yucatan Channel west-northwest
through the remainder of the weekend. The system is forecast to
move west- northwestward, where conditions appear generally
conducive for further development. A tropical depression could
form before the system moves inland over Mexico early next week.
Conditions are forecast to improve across the basin Mon through
Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about Tropical Storm
Beryl, and the Invest Area AL94.

Satellite derived wind data show moderate to fresh winds over the
east and central Caribbean while fresh to strong SE winds prevail
in the NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the SW
portion of the basin. Seas are 8 to 10 ft W of 85W with the
strongest winds. Elsewhere seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, except 2
to 4 ft in SW Caribbean over the NW Caribbean. A tropical wave is
generating showers and thunderstorms over the Windward Islands.
Please, see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more details.

For the forecast, Newly upgraded Hurricane Beryl is near 10.1N
49.3W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west at 19 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 992 mb. Beryl will move to 10.6N 51.9W Sun morning,
11.3N 55.3W Sun afternoon, 12.0N 58.7W Mon morning, 13.1N 62.3W
Mon afternoon, 14.3N 66.0W Tue morning, and 15.5N 69.8W Tue
afternoon. Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to
near 17.3N 77.2W Wed afternoon. Meanwhile, a broad area of low
pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to strong E
to SE winds and building seas in the NW Caribbean through the
Yucatan Channel through tonight. Otherwise, mainly moderate to
fresh trades will prevail, pulsing to fresh to strong in the
central Caribbean later in the weekend into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Beryl.

Th Bermuda-Azores High dominates the Atlantic forecast waters. A
trough related to an upper-level low runs from 30N76W to 25N78W.
Scattered showers are in the vicinity of this troughs. The
pressure gradient between the Azores High and T.S. Beryl supports
an area of fresh to strong NE winds from 12N to 20N between 47W
and 54W based on earlier scatterometer data. Seas are 5 to 7 Ft
within these winds per altimeter data. A belt of moderate to fresh
trade winds is noted elsewhere roughly from 15N to 25N E of 55W
to the W coast of Africa with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate winds prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft with the
exception of 1 to 3 ft N of 25N and W of 70W, including the NW and
central Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with
moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N,
through the next several days. Newly upgraded Hurricane Beryl is
near 10.1N 49.3W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west at 19 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 992 mb. Beryl will move to 10.6N 51.9W Sun
morning, 11.3N 55.3W Sun afternoon, 12.0N 58.7W Mon morning, 13.1N
62.3W Mon afternoon, 14.3N 66.0W Tue morning, and 15.5N 69.8W Tue
afternoon. Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to
near 17.3N 77.2W Wed afternoon A decaying cold front may drop
south of 31N Tue through Wed.

$$
AReinhart