330
AXNT20 KNHC 290849
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Jun 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 9.8N 45.5W at 29/0900 UTC
or 850 nm ESE of Barbados, moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently 13 ft. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the E
semicircle and 210 nm in the W semicircle of Beryl. Additional
steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple
of days, and Beryl is expected to become a hurricane tonight or
Sunday. A relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion
is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the
system is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday
night and Monday. Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands.
This rainfall may produce localized flooding in vulnerable areas.
Swells generated by the system are expected to reach the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
for more detail. For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory on Beryl, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Northwestern Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Invest AL94):
A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to
produce widespread but disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 15N to 21N between 81W and 90W. Development of this low is
not anticipated before it moves inland over the Yucatan Peninsula
later today. The system is then forecast to move west-
northwestward, emerging over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early
Sunday, where conditions appear generally conducive for further
development. A tropical depression could form before the system
moves inland again early next week over Mexico. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low
pressure will affect portions of Central America and Mexico
through early next week. There is a medium chance this system
might develop further while in the Bay of Campeche. Please refer
to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more
details.

Potential for Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central
America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic
circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in the
northern part of Central America. The latest model guidance
continues to suggest high precipitation amounts through Tue. As
the system continues propagating northwestward, higher rainfalls
are expected at Belize, eastern Guatemala and northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula through this weekend. These rains could shift
northwestward over the coastal areas of Mexico along the Gulf of
Mexico early next week. It is recommended that residents in the
aforementioned areas to stay alert on the latest information from
their local weather services. Please refer to the Tropical Weather
Discussion for the East Pacific at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtmal on rainfall
information along the Pacific coastal areas of Central America.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 13N southward,
or several hundred nautical miles south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands, and moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 01N to 10N
between 21W and 35W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 kt across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 for more
details.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is just east of Barbados near
58W/59W from 20N southward into Guyana, and moving west at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present
from 10N to 14N between 55W and 68W, with additional convection
over much of Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave (AL94) is near 87W/88W from the
western Yucatan Channel southward near Cozumel and through the
Gulf of Honduras into Honduras and Nicaragua. It is moving west-
northwestward at around 10 kt. Refer to the Special Features
section for wind and sea conditions, convection and potential for
tropical development.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Mauritania and Senegal, then curves southwestward across 10N20W
to 07N37W. No ITCZ is present in the Atlantic due to disruption by
Tropical Storm Beryl. Scattered moderate convection is found from
05N to 10N between 14W and 21W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Invest
AL94.

A broad surface ridge extends along 28N per overnight ASCAT
scatterometer data. Fresh to locally strong E to ESE winds and
seas at 5 to 8 ft are evident at the south-central Gulf,
including the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to locally fresh ESE to
SSE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate the western Gulf. Gentle to
moderate SE to S winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest
of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge along 28N
and a broad area of low pressure over the NW Caribbean Sea near
the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula accompanied by a
tropical wave will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and
building seas spreading from the Yucatan Channel west-northwest
through the weekend. The system is then forecast to move west-
northwestward, emerging over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early
Sun, where conditions appear generally conducive for further
development, with the potential for tropical cyclone formation.
Gentle winds should prevail in the NE Gulf through the weekend.
Conditions are forecast to improve across the basin Mon through
Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about Tropical Storm
Beryle, AL94 and heavy rainfall for southern Mexico and Central
America.

Convergent southeasterly winds are triggering scattered heavy
showers and thunderstorms south of Cuba, and near Jamaica and the
Windward Passage. Other than the northwestern basin mentioned in
the Special Features section, gentle to moderate with locally
fresh E to ESE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in
the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl is near 9.8N 45.5W at
5 AM EDT, and is moving west at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
1001 mb. Beryl will move to 10.3N 48.1W this afternoon,
strengthen to a hurricane near 11.0N 51.6W Sun morning, 11.6N
55.0W Sun afternoon, 12.4N 58.4W Mon morning, 13.3N 62.0W Mon
afternoon, and 14.4N 65.7W Tue morning. Beryl will change little
in intensity as it moves to 16.8N 73.0W early Wed, then to then to
19.0N 79.0W early Thu. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure over
the NW Caribbean Sea accompanied by a tropical wave will support
fresh to strong E to SE winds and building seas in the NW
Caribbean through the Yucatan Channel through tonight. The
system is then forecast to move west-northwestward, emerging
over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early Sun, where conditions
appear generally conducive for further development, with the
potential for tropical cyclone formation. Otherwise, mainly
moderate to fresh trades will prevail, pulsing to fresh to
strong in the central Caribbean as a tropical wave moves through
later in the weekend into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Beryl.

Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for
details on convection in the Atlantic Basin. A broad surface
ridge stretches southwestward from a 1030 mb Azores High across
31N38W to just north of the northern Bahamas. This feature is
supporting gentle to moderate E to ESE winds across the waters
north of 25N and west of 25W. Moderate to fresh trades are found
from 10N to 25N from the coast of Africa through the Cabo Verde
Islands, to across the tropical Atlantic to the Lesser Antilles.
Gentle to moderate winds are south of 10N. Seas are 3 to 5 ft
north of 25N and west of 55W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft from 10N to 20N
between 35W and 50W in mixed swells from Beryl, and 4 to 7 ft
across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, Ridging will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N through
the next several days. A decaying cold front may drop south of 31N
Tue through Wed. Meanwhile, the ridge will support moderate to
fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N into early next
week. Tropical Storm Beryl is near 9.8N 45.5W at 5 AM EDT, and is
moving west at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Beryl
will move to 10.3N 48.1W this afternoon, strengthen to a
hurricane near 11.0N 51.6W Sun morning, 11.6N 55.0W Sun afternoon,
12.4N 58.4W Mon morning, 13.3N 62.0W Mon afternoon, and 14.4N
65.7W Tue morning. Beryl will change little in intensity as it
moves to 16.8N 73.0W early Wed, then to then to 19.0N 79.0W early
Thu.

$$
Lewitsky