Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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068 FXUS63 KBIS 032032 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 332 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening. A few storms could be stronger. Chance of showers overnight. - Numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely on Independence Day, but the entire day should not be a washout. It will be numerous popcorn storms all over. - Slightly below average temperatures and chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend, with highs mainly in the 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Currently in the cyclonic flow , several areas of popcorn showers and thunderstorms have developed. A shortwave wave is in central Montana, providing lift for these showers in eastern Montana and the Dakotas. These areas are the northwest, north central, and around Bismarck. Another area of showers is in the southwest where a different system is bringing showers into the state off a low moving into Nebraska. The showers in the diurnal cumulus should die with the sunset, where as the showers off the low may continue all night, slowly spreading north and east as the upper level wave moves east. Independence Day: With the upper low and surface low moving across South Dakota Thursday, another day of widespread popcorn showers are likely in the afternoon. For the morning hours, it looks like showers and maybe thunderstorms will be rotating around this low in northern South Dakota and into the south central of North Dakota. Timing on this looks to be through the late morning before the daytime diurnal convection starts. As the wave passes through, the flow aloft will turn northerly with an incoming ridge. However this won`t prohibit the afternoon convection. This looks to start around 17z as the diurnal cumulus starts, moving straight south. Storms will not be severe as there will be hardly any shear, plenty of CAPE though. Highs will be slightly cooler in the low to mid 70s. **If you look at your city`s forecast on our website, you`ll probably see a high percentage chance for storms. However the storms will be the popcorn version and not an all day washout like it may seem. So there will be quick moving small thunderstorms everywhere in the state in the afternoon, ending in the evening. With your outdoor plans, make sure to keep an eye on the sky for lightning and on the radar to see if one is coming or when you are in the clear. Remember, lightning can strike several miles away from the storm out of the anvil or sideways out of the storm.** This weekend into next week: Friday through Sunday will be more of the same with shortwaves moving through with daily diurnally driven chances for showers and thunderstorms. No severe weather is expect because everyday one of the key ingredients will be missing, either CAPE or shear. Highs through the weekend will remain just below average in the low to upper 70s. After Sunday a big ridge sets up over the western Continental United States, with warmer temperatures at 850mb. So starting Monday, a warming temperature trend will start with highs ranging from the mid 70s to the lower 80s. By Wednesday it could range from the mid 70s to mid 80s. There could be a few kinks of energy moving through the ridge producing a few showers, but otherwise it should be mostly dry under the influence of the ridge. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 VFR with daytime cumulus clouds. There are scattered showers and thunderstorms all over this evening. VCSH or VCTS was used almost the whole period as popcorn type showers are possible through the period. Winds could gust to 25kts from the northwest, then calming and turning north. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Smith