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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
845 FXUS65 KBOI 252019 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 219 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...A shortwave trough will move into the area tonight, bringing a rare nocturnal convective event to the region. Storms are expected to develop after 06Z in SE Oregon, and move into SW Idaho after around 09Z. These storms will be capable of wind gusts 40-50 mph. Storms will continue into Wed afternoon on the Idaho side, and wind gusts could approach 60 mph in the strongest storms. PW values increase tonight, so brief heavy rain is also possible in the strongest storms. As the system departs Wed afternoon, the PW will decrease rapidly. Winds will increase, especially in SE Oregon, Wed afternoon. The combination of lightning and stronger winds has prompted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for parts of the area from late tonight through Wed evening (see the Red Flag Warning for details). After tonight`s initial shortwave, a larger upper level trough will move through Thursday. This will bring very few additional showers, but much cooler air. After temperatures around 10 degrees above normal tomorrow, readings will be around 5 degrees below normal Thu and again Fri, with Thu being the coolest day. Northwest winds Thursday afternoon and early evening will be gusty (15-25 mph) for most areas, and even stronger in the upper Treasure and western Magic Valleys (25-35 mph). .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...We will remain dry Friday until Saturday evening as dry NW flow aloft shifts gradually to SW ahead of a trough developing off the coast. The trough will gradually move inland through Sunday and cross our area Sunday night. As this occurs, a chance of precipitation will return Saturday evening and increase through Sunday afternoon/evening. Thunderstorms are possible, especially in the higher terrain and south of the Snake River. We should dry out Monday and remain dry for Tuesday. Saturday will be the warmest day of the long term, with temps 5-10 degrees above normal. Otherwise, temperatures should be around normal. && .AVIATION...VFR. Hot temperatures will promote high density altitude today. Increasing mid/high level clouds this aft/eve. Scattered showers will develop late this afternoon and isolated/scattered thunderstorms will develop late tonight and continue through Wed afternoon, with outflow gusts of 35-45 kt possible. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt this afternoon, becoming variable less than 10 kt overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-20 kt, increasing to 20-30 kt overnight. KBOI...VFR. Hot temperatures will promote high density altitude today. Increasing high clouds late this afternoon, then ceilings lowering to around 10,000 ft AGL late tonight. A 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms after 26/09Z through Wed afternoon, with outflow gusts of 35-45 kt possible. Surface winds: NW 5-10 kt this afternoon, shifting to NE around 26/00Z, then SE 5-15 kt around 26/04Z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...SP LONG TERM....SP AVIATION.....SP