979
FXUS62 KCAE 290009
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
809 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions continue into the weekend. Afternoon
and evening rain and storm chances increase through the weekend
with noticeably higher moisture building into the region. A cold
front is expected to bring slightly cooler and drier conditions
to start off the work week, but building high pressure will
allow the return of temperatures near the century mark by mid-
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Warm and humid overnight with another round of fog/stratus
  likely in the morning

Afternoon convection remains isolated over the forecast area
this evening but with the loss of heating these should dissipate
by 10pm. Abundant moisture in the low levels remains in place
overnight and expect another round of stratus and possible fog
to develop during the predawn hours over the Coastal Plain and
eastern Midlands which is expected to spread into the central
Midlands. Initial nocturnal cooling will be limited by
convective debris clouds and then again by the expected stratus
so expecting a warm night with lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key messages:
- Excessive heat concerns continue this weekend with headlines
  likely on Sunday. Additional rainfall likely.

Little change in the forecast for Saturday as the remains of the
diffuse frontal boundary remain across the area. Pwat values
will remain above 2 inches with moderate instability so expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening hours. With some dry air in the mid levels DCAPE values
will be 5-600 J/Kg so there is some potential for wind gusts
from the stronger thunderstorms.

On Sunday the pattern will change as a frontal boundary moves
into the area with the upper level trough also swinging into the
region. Although the best dynamics will remain north of the
forecast area there will be plenty of instability for the front
to interact with which is expected to create thunderstorms
across much of the forecast area Sunday afternoon into the early
overnight hours. The drier air in the mid levels from Saturday
will have eroded however instability will be greater and pwat
values will be nearing 2.5 inches. As such the potential for
severe thunderstorms appears low however with weak steering flow
aloft there will be increasing potential for locally heavy
rainfall.

Afternoon high temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s
Saturday with heat index values between 102 and 107 with the
highest reading in the eastern Midlands where a heat advisory
may be needed. On Sunday high temperatures will be in the mid
to upper 90s with heat index reaching 105-110. A heat advisory
is likely on Sunday with the possibility of an excessive heat
warning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Near normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday with the heat
  returning by the Fourth of July.

The frontal boundary is expected to be just southeast of the
forecast area Monday however with the boundary becoming
increasingly diffuse expect another round of afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms. Little change Tuesday as the
remains of the boundary continue to become more diffuse and
continue slowly sagging southward. With the boundary just south
of the area temperatures will be slightly cooler with highs
generally in the upper 80s to low 90s. Wednesday and Thursday
will see the return of the upper level ridge and with plenty of
moisture remaining over the region the summertime chances of
showers and thunderstorms will continue each day.
The heat on Thursday will be the main concern as temperatures
once again will push into the mid 90s to around 100 with the
heat index again between 105 and 110.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Scattered Showers may Cause Brief Restrictions this Evening....

Scattered showers continue across the forecast area this evening
but have largely avoided the terminals during the last few
hours. Will monitor trends and amend TAFs as needed. Any shower
or isolated thunderstorm that moves over a terminal during the
next few hours will likely result in brief restrictions.
Activity is expected to diminish this evening giving way to
clear skies. Guidance remains bullish on the development of low
clouds and likely restrictions towards daybreak. However,
confidence is not high enough to show more than SCT decks in the
TAFs at this time. Low clouds will likely transition to
scattered cumulus or stratocumulus after daybreak.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered showers-storms with
restrictions each afternoon into early next week as additional
moisture moves over the region. Early morning fog-stratus
likely each as well.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$